Lucas Sims

Sims opened the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to back spasms, but he was able to return in mid-April and managed to stay healthy for rest of the season. The 29-year-old posted career-highs with 61 innings across 67 games played as one of the Reds primary setup men, while racking up seven wins and 25 holds that were also career-best marks. With some of the best spin rates in the league, Sims produced a mere 32.1% hard-hit rate that was in the 91st percentile and .177 XBA in the 99th percentile. He also had the highest fly ball percentage among qualified relievers at 61.2 percent. However, Sims' 15.1 percent walk rate was 4th-worst, as he often had trouble commanding his breaking pitches. There's some health risk given Sims' nagging back issues, but he's a decent bet for 20-plus holds if health permits in 2024.

Sims entered 2022 looking like the favorite to close games for Cincinnati, but he recorded only a single save and was limited to just 6.2 innings across six appearances due to elbow issues and a herniated disc in his back. The back injury caused Sims serious pain and he even lost feeling in his foot before addressing the problem with season-ending surgery last July. Sims is one of the highest upside Reds relievers when healthy, but 2022 was his second straight season dealing with elbow problems. Back injuries are always worrisome for pitchers, so the 28-year-old is a risky fantasy bet for those seeking saves, especially since manager David Bell tends to spread opportunities around anyway. Monitor Sims' health throughout spring to determine if he's worth or spec or not this year, but don't expect double-digit saves.

Armed with some of the best spin rates in the league, Sims finally got a taste of Cincinnati's closer role in 2021. He split chances early in the season with Amir Garrett, but the latter was awful and Sims got run as the Reds primary closer in late-May. He ripped off five saves in two weeks and appeared to be gaining momentum in the role until suffering an elbow sprain in June that sidelined him until mid-August. He took a few lumps upon his return and did not record another save for the rest of the season, but finished 2021 with a 4.40 ERA, seven saves, nine holds and a career-high 14.6 K/9. His estimators (2.99 FIP, 2.55 xERA) suggest he was unlucky in that department. Reds manager David Bell used 10 different relievers in the ninth inning last year, and while Sims was successful in his audition for the closer role, there's no guarantee he lands the job. He's unlikely to be ready for Opening Day due to back and elbow issues but should certainly be in the conversation for save chances once he's healthy.

All that spin-rate promise was realized in 2020 as Sims finished with a 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 34:11 K:BB in 25.2 innings for the Reds. Sims was truly elite in terms of Statcast expected outcomes, ranking in the top 2% of the league in xwOBA, xERA, xBA and xSLG. He was also in the top 2% in barrel rate. Some ERA estimators will ding him for a 10.7 BB% and .192 BABIP -- Sims had a 3.70 FIP and 4.06 xFIP in 2020 -- but it's clear that Sims' success was largely deserved. Sims' opponents should not be expected to hit all that much closer to league average against a pitcher who has great rising movement on his four-seamer and more breaking-ball spin than any pitcher in the game. The closer job looks open in Cincinnati with Raisel Iglesias traded and Sims is a threat to run away with the job, though lefty Amir Garrett is another viable closing candidate. A tandem situation would make sense, at least to start.

A first-round draft pick in 2012 (21st overall), Sims was dealt from Atlanta to Cincinnati as part of the Adam Duvall trade in 2018. He worked exclusively as a starter at Triple-A Louisville and mostly out of the bullpen at the big-league level last season, totaling 122 innings between the two stops. While the results leave something to be desired, Sims looks to have a future as a major-league reliever. His four-seam fastball averaged a modest 93.6 mph in 2019, but Sims has one of the highest spin rates in the game on the heater and the curveball as well. All that spin helped him to a strong 32.2 K% in his debut with the Reds. He's always been a flyball pitcher and was extreme in that regard last season (56.7 FB%), which is not ideal in this current run environment. Sims is out of minor-league options and will have to figure the rest out on the job while working in the middle innings.

Sims came over to the Reds in the Adam Duvall deal at the trade deadline last year, having stagnated in the Braves' organization. Upon arriving at Triple-A Louisville, Sims performed well over 28 innings, with a 32:5 K:BB ratio, albeit at the cost of five homers allowed. The Reds called him up in September but he had to be shut down after three appearances thanks to a strained teres major in his upper right arm. Like many in the organization, Sims is a flawed pitching prospect with an uncertain role. He is not without pedigree (first-round pick in 2012) and won't turn 25 until May. However, the Reds seem to be looking to speed up their rebuild, and therefore won't give him a long leash as a starter if he can help out of the big-league bullpen.

After opening the 2017 season toiling for Triple-A Gwinnett, recording a 3.75 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 132 strikeouts and 36 walks in 115.1 innings, Sims made his major-league debut for the Braves on August 1, appearing in 14 games (10 starts). Results were mixed as the right-hander's strikeout rate was a pedestrian 17 percent with a high nine percent walk rate. As a flyball pitcher, Sims needs to limit free passes to minimize damage done by the inevitable homers he allows. Not overpowering with a fastball velocity in the 91-93 mph range, Sims uses five pitches, all more than 10 percent of the time, including a sinker, slider, curveball and changeup. This repertoire plays as a starter if he can hone control so batters don't know what to expect. While Sims is still just 23 years old, he's one of several young arms the Braves are hoping to emerge as rotation staples. A solid spring could earn Sims a rotation spot, with a bullpen role as the fallback.

While Sims has featured a plus fastball and plus curveball for several years now, his inability to find the strike zone over the past couple seasons flipped his realistic outlook from mid-rotation starter to high-leverage reliever. He completely changed that narrative in a return trip to Triple-A in 2017, posting a 7.7 percent walk rate -- his lowest mark over a significant stretch as a professional. That drastic improvement has earned him a look in the big-league rotation, but he will only have a limited amount of time to show those command/control gains are legitimate, as the Braves have a host of more highly acclaimed pitching prospects who will be ready at some point in 2018, with more on the way in 2019. If Sims can prove to be pitch efficient and keep the walks in a manageable range, he has the stuff to post average or better strikeout rates as a starter. If he gets squeezed out, he will be on the short list of potential Braves closers in 2019 and beyond.

A freak hip injury, suffered in a team bus crash while with High-A Carolina, cost Sims nearly seven weeks of the season. Once cleared to return, Sims joined Double-A Mississippi rather than return to Carolina, and while the results were generally strong in nine starts for Mississippi, control issues continued to plague him. The 21-year-old showed improvement in that regard during the Arizona Fall League, issuing just three passes while fanning 17 in 17 innings, earning the start for the West in the Fall Stars game. Sims flashes two potential plus pitches (fastball and curveball) and mixes in a changeup, but the control will have to stabilize before he's given a chance in the major league rotation, and there are questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation long-term. He will attend camp as a non-roster invitee but figures to open the year back at Double-A with a chance to contribute later in the year.

The move up to High-A Lynchburg in 2014 came with a steep learning curve -- he posted a 5.00 ERA and a dismal 38:25 K:BB in 72 first-half innings -- but Sims showed the type of promise late in the year that made him the 21st overall pick in the 2012 first-year player draft. Sims was able to miss bats at a much higher clip in the second half (69 strikeouts in 84.2 innings) while seeing only a slight uptick in walks (from 3.1 BB/9 to 3.4), resulting in a 3.51 ERA after the All-Star break and 2.88 ERA in August. The right-hander's curveball and changeup are still developing behind his 93-95 mph fastball, but Sims has the potential to feature three plus offerings at the major league level, giving him claim to being the Braves' top pitching prospect in many minds. New president of baseball operations John Hart seems to be looking several years ahead, so the team will likely take its time with Sims, meaning a jump to Double-A Mississippi early in 2015 is not necessarily a given.

Considered the top pitching prospect in the Braves organization, Sims was dominant in his first season at Low-A Rome (2.62 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9). When the 2014 season opens, Sims will still be just 19 years old, and while those in dynasty leagues will likely want to pick him up, those in re-draft leagues can leave him be, as it's hard to imagine he'd get a run with the big club in 2014, given the team's pitching depth. It's believed that Sims could be future option in the front of the Atlanta rotation, however, so patience in dynasty formats could pay significant dividends.

The Braves' 2012 first-round draft pick won't be contributing to non-keeper fantasy teams anytime soon. Even in keeper leagues, it is probably worthwhile to wait a couple years to see how he develops. Sims is still a teenager, after all, and has only played rookie ball in his brief career. Sims features a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid-90s and a good changeup. He was also lauded for his control in his high school career. High school draftees always sound great and by all means they are immensely talented, but many flame out in the lower rungs of the minors when they face more advanced competition. He'll likely see time at Low-A Rome for his first full professional season in 2013.