Justin Steele

Justin Steele

30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Chicago Cubs
60-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 5/25/2026
2026 Fantasy Outlook
Steele made just four starts before undergoing UCL revision surgery in April, which sidelined him for the remainder of the 2025 campaign. The left-hander surrendered five runs during his season debut but pitched to a 3.38 ERA in his other three outings. More importantly, Steele is poised to begin 2026 on the injured list, but he could be ready to join the Cubs' starting rotation at some point during the first half of the season. His fantasy upside could vary significantly depending on when he's actually available, so keeping tabs on his rehab progress in the spring will be significant. Steele could have some limitations in his first year back from elbow surgery -- both in terms of effectiveness and workload -- but his career 3.30 ERA and 9.2 K/9 offer plenty of reason for fantasy managers to be willing to take the risk. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#364
ADP
Signed a one-year, $6.775 million contract with the Cubs in January of 2026.
Heads to 60-day IL
PChicago Cubs
Elbow
March 25, 2026
The Cubs placed Steele (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
Analysis
Steele is progressing as anticipated after undergoing UCL revision surgery back on April 18, 2025, but he'll still need at least the first two months of the 2026 season to complete the lengthy recovery process. The southpaw checked off a major box in his rehab program by facing live hitters in batting practice sessions just under two weeks ago. He'll likely continue to gradually increase the volume and intensity of his pitching in live BP sessions and simulated games over at least the next few weeks before eventually embarking on an extended minor-league rehab assignment.
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Pitching Stats
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2026 MLB Game Log
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2026 MLB Game Log
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2025 MLB Game Log
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2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2024
 
 
-20%
BAA vs LHP
2026
No Stats
2025
 
 
-33%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2024vs Left .187 138 38 9 23 2 0 2
Since 2024vs Right .233 509 118 33 109 25 0 15
2026vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Left .185 30 6 2 5 1 0 0
2025vs Right .276 62 15 3 16 3 0 5
2024vs Left .188 108 32 7 18 1 0 2
2024vs Right .227 447 103 30 93 22 0 10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2024
 
 
-5%
ERA on Road
2026
No Stats
2025
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-13%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2024Home 3.40 1.12 76.2 4 4 0 9.0 2.9 0.8
Since 2024Away 3.24 1.09 80.2 4 2 0 8.8 1.9 1.1
2026Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Home 4.09 1.00 11.0 1 1 0 10.6 2.5 1.6
2025Away 5.40 1.29 11.2 2 0 0 6.2 1.5 2.3
2024Home 3.29 1.14 65.2 3 3 0 8.8 3.0 0.7
2024Away 2.87 1.06 69.0 2 2 0 9.3 2.0 0.9
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Steele See More
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2025
2024
2023
2022
2016
Steele had a breakout season in 2023 but somewhat of a breakdown 2024 season when you look at him from a medical angle. The hamstring strain he incurred in his first start of the season led to him missing a month, but then left forearm soreness in late August was a scare, especially for someone who has already had Tommy John surgery. Thankfully, Steele made it back to throw two more games before the season ended, so some of the mystery around the injury was resolved. Steele continues to employ a very unusual repertoire for a starter, as he throws his four-seamer or his slider nearly 90 percent of the time. Lefties continued to have little success against him, while righties are still mostly kept at bay because Steele does not hurt himself with walks, and the use of the changeup and curve at least keep righties guessing. That combination has helped him become one of the better hard contact suppressors in the league. Nearly every indicator points in the right direction, but the health scare of September is a fresh reminder of his downside for 2025.
There was a lot to like with Steele coming into the 2023 season as a pitcher who kept the ball in the yard, threw a lot of strikes and generated a fair number of whiffs. Our 2023 outlook even said he could be in store for a nice fantasy season, but who saw him doubling his career win total and continuing the positive peripheral growth for a third consecutive season? If not for Blake Snell's amazing run or all of Spencer Strider's strikeouts and wins, Steele could have garnered more supporters for a Cy Young argument with the season he had. So what if he does not have the velocity of other pitchers when he can match results with the best of them? The amazing part is he does this using two pitches 97% of the time, which does leave him exposed to the third-time-through penalty. He may never be a 200-inning arm, but Steele is a pitcher on the rise approaching frontline status.
Steele took a big step forward in 2022 and could be emerging as a staple of Chicago's rotation in the coming years. The lefty made 24 starts and posted a 3.18 ERA and 126 strikeouts across 119 innings. That ERA was supported by a 3.20 FIP, so Steele's production seems sustainable. His last appearance came in late August, however, as a back issue flared up and the Cubs decided not to push him when they had little to play for. That will probably benefit Steele heading into 2023, as he should be healthy to begin the season. Marcus Stroman should continue to lead the rotation followed by Hendricks, though the latter is dealing with a shoulder injury over the offseason. That leaves Steele as the No. 3 starter with the potential to move up. As a southpaw who can miss bats, Steele could be in store for a nice fantasy season, particularly if he can build on his career-best workload from 2022.
Steele and Brad Wieck are projected as the lefties in the Cubs' bullpen, and the former finally made his major-league debut in 2021 with some bumps and bruises. The 23.8 K% was promising for a rookie, but the 10.9 BB% along with a 1.9 HR/9 offset the gains from his strikeouts. He somehow managed a respectable ERA given the recipe for disaster with the walks and allowing a homer for every four flyballs allowed. Steele can work as a swingman as he has the repertoire of a starting pitcher and worked almost exclusively as a starter throughout his minor-league career. What he lacks in velocity he makes up for with movement, and should he find better command as a sophomore, he could take a step forward and gain relevance in NL-only formats.
Steele, a fifth-round draft pick out of high school in 2014, was limited to just 40.2 innings for short-season Eugene, partially because of a minor "tweak" in his arm. Issues in the arm of young pitchers are always a concern, but the Cubs can afford to be cautious with Steele, as there is no hurry to advance him to the big-league level. Steele has a 2.73 ERA in his first two professional seasons, and they haven't been flukes, as his FIPs have been even better. The skinny 20-year-old southpaw has a decent future if he can stay healthy, but his ceiling is probably as a mid-rotation starter.
More Fantasy News
Faces live hitters Friday
PChicago Cubs
Elbow
March 14, 2026
Steele (elbow) faced live hitters Friday for the first time in 11 months as he continues his recovery from UCL revision surgery last April, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com reports.
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Full clearance for throwing
PChicago Cubs
Elbow
March 1, 2026
Steele (elbow) received full clearance for throwing Sunday following his final visit with his surgeon, Dr. Keith Meister, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports.
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Targeting May or June return
PChicago Cubs
Elbow
February 17, 2026
Steele (elbow) has been throwing 30-pitch bullpen sessions and is targeting a return to the majors in May or June, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times reports.
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Resumes mound work
PChicago Cubs
Elbow
January 26, 2026
Steele (elbow) threw off a mound Jan. 16 for the first time since undergoing UCL revision surgery April 18, MLB.com reports.
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Avoids arbitration with Cubs
PChicago Cubs
Elbow
January 8, 2026
The Cubs and Steele (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.775 million contract Thursday, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Targeting return around May or June
PChicago Cubs
February 16, 2026
Steele, who's rehabbing from an elbow injury that cost him most of the 2025 season, is planning to return to the Cubs rotation in May or June, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.
Analysis
Steele revealed that he's throwing 30-pitch bullpen sessions, so his rehab seems to be going in the right direction. It remains to be seen if the star hurler will be able to recapture his form right away, but nonetheless, having a pitcher of Steele's caliber back in the rotation will be a huge boost for a Chicago team that looks like a true contender in the NL.
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