Justin Steele

Justin Steele

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Chicago Cubs
2024 Fantasy Outlook
There was a lot to like with Steele coming into the 2023 season as a pitcher who kept the ball in the yard, threw a lot of strikes and generated a fair number of whiffs. Our 2023 outlook even said he could be in store for a nice fantasy season, but who saw him doubling his career win total and continuing the positive peripheral growth for a third consecutive season? If not for Blake Snell's amazing run or all of Spencer Strider's strikeouts and wins, Steele could have garnered more supporters for a Cy Young argument with the season he had. So what if he does not have the velocity of other pitchers when he can match results with the best of them? The amazing part is he does this using two pitches 97% of the time, which does leave him exposed to the third-time-through penalty. He may never be a 200-inning arm, but Steele is a pitcher on the rise approaching frontline status. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#103
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4 million contract with the Cubs in January of 2024.
Goes four innings against Phillies
PChicago Cubs
September 25, 2024
Steele didn't factor into the decision in Tuesday's 10-4 win over the Phillies, allowing two runs on four hits over four innings. He struck out three without issuing a walk.
ANALYSIS
Steele only threw 62 pitches Tuesday as he continues to work his way back from a three-week absence due to elbow tendinitis. The left-hander will likely wrap up an injury-hampered campaign with a 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 135:37 K:BB across 134.2 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
85
Last 10 Games
83
Last 5 Games
68
How many pitches does Justin Steele generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Justin Steele generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-3%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .233 364 108 29 76 12 0 9
Since 2022vs Right .241 1419 329 94 313 62 3 25
2024vs Left .188 108 32 7 18 1 0 2
2024vs Right .227 447 103 30 93 22 0 10
2023vs Left .267 141 42 8 35 9 0 6
2023vs Right .247 575 134 28 132 25 2 8
2022vs Left .232 115 34 14 23 2 0 1
2022vs Right .248 397 92 36 88 15 1 7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-16%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-13%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-28%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-26%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 2.86 1.20 239.0 18 10 0 9.0 2.7 0.5
Since 2022Away 3.40 1.20 188.0 7 7 0 9.5 2.5 1.0
2024Home 3.29 1.14 65.2 3 3 0 8.8 3.0 0.7
2024Away 2.87 1.06 69.0 2 2 0 9.3 2.0 0.9
2023Home 2.65 1.19 102.0 12 3 0 9.3 1.9 0.4
2023Away 3.66 1.15 71.1 4 2 0 9.0 1.9 1.1
2022Home 2.78 1.26 71.1 3 4 0 8.8 3.5 0.4
2022Away 3.78 1.49 47.2 1 3 0 10.6 4.2 0.9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Justin Steele compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.65
 
K/9
9.0
 
BB/9
2.5
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
91.6 mph
 
ERA
3.07
 
WHIP
1.10
 
BABIP
.288
 
GB/FB
1.33
 
Left On Base
71.6%
 
Exit Velocity
80.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
2.8%
 
Spin Rate
2485 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
21.5%
 
Swinging Strike
10.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2016
Steele took a big step forward in 2022 and could be emerging as a staple of Chicago's rotation in the coming years. The lefty made 24 starts and posted a 3.18 ERA and 126 strikeouts across 119 innings. That ERA was supported by a 3.20 FIP, so Steele's production seems sustainable. His last appearance came in late August, however, as a back issue flared up and the Cubs decided not to push him when they had little to play for. That will probably benefit Steele heading into 2023, as he should be healthy to begin the season. Marcus Stroman should continue to lead the rotation followed by Hendricks, though the latter is dealing with a shoulder injury over the offseason. That leaves Steele as the No. 3 starter with the potential to move up. As a southpaw who can miss bats, Steele could be in store for a nice fantasy season, particularly if he can build on his career-best workload from 2022.
Steele and Brad Wieck are projected as the lefties in the Cubs' bullpen, and the former finally made his major-league debut in 2021 with some bumps and bruises. The 23.8 K% was promising for a rookie, but the 10.9 BB% along with a 1.9 HR/9 offset the gains from his strikeouts. He somehow managed a respectable ERA given the recipe for disaster with the walks and allowing a homer for every four flyballs allowed. Steele can work as a swingman as he has the repertoire of a starting pitcher and worked almost exclusively as a starter throughout his minor-league career. What he lacks in velocity he makes up for with movement, and should he find better command as a sophomore, he could take a step forward and gain relevance in NL-only formats.
Steele, a fifth-round draft pick out of high school in 2014, was limited to just 40.2 innings for short-season Eugene, partially because of a minor "tweak" in his arm. Issues in the arm of young pitchers are always a concern, but the Cubs can afford to be cautious with Steele, as there is no hurry to advance him to the big-league level. Steele has a 2.73 ERA in his first two professional seasons, and they haven't been flukes, as his FIPs have been even better. The skinny 20-year-old southpaw has a decent future if he can stay healthy, but his ceiling is probably as a mid-rotation starter.
More Fantasy News
Limited workload in return
PChicago Cubs
September 18, 2024
Steele came away with a no-decision in Wednesday's 5-3 loss to the Athletics, allowing two hits and three walks over 2.2 scoreless innings. He struck out one.
ANALYSIS
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Activated ahead of start
PChicago Cubs
September 18, 2024
The Cubs activated Steele (elbow) from the 15-day injured list Wednesday, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Rejoining rotation Wednesday
PChicago Cubs
Elbow
September 17, 2024
Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced Tuesday that Steele (elbow) will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start Wednesday against the Athletics, Ryan Herrera of AllCHGO.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Could return from IL soon
PChicago Cubs
Elbow
September 14, 2024
Steele (elbow) told reporters after his bullpen session Saturday that he expects to be activated off the 15-day injured list during the Cubs' upcoming homestand, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws off mound
PChicago Cubs
Elbow
September 11, 2024
Steele (elbow) threw a bullpen session Wednesday, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Earning 2022 rotation spot?
PChicago Cubs
September 30, 2021
Steele pitched seven scoreless innings in a win Thursday and could be solidifying his spot in next season's rotation.
ANALYSIS
The Cubs have plenty of question marks behind ace Kyle Hendricks, and Steele has flashed some potential, though he's also had his share of rough outings. The lefty at least should have a chance at earning a rotation spot heading into next season depending on what the team does in free agency.
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