Out
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 5/1/2026
2025 Stats
W-L
3-1
ERA
4.76
WHIP
1.15
K
21
SV
0
2026 Projections
2026 Fantasy Outlook
Steele made just four starts before undergoing UCL revision surgery in April, which sidelined him for the remainder of the 2025 campaign. The left-hander surrendered five runs during his season debut but pitched to a 3.38 ERA in his other three outings. More importantly, Steele is poised to begin 2026 on the injured list, but he could be ready to join the Cubs' starting rotation at some point during the first half of the season. His fantasy upside could vary significantly depending on when he's actually available, so keeping tabs on his rehab progress in the spring will be significant. Steele could have some limitations in his first year back from elbow surgery -- both in terms of effectiveness and workload -- but his career 3.30 ERA and 9.2 K/9 offer plenty of reason for fantasy managers to be willing to take the risk. Read Past Outlooks
Signed a one-year, $6.775 million contract with the Cubs in January of 2026.
Targeting May or June return
Steele (elbow) has been throwing 30-pitch bullpen sessions and is targeting a return to the majors in May or June, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times reports.
Analysis
Steele underwent UCL revision surgery on his left elbow in mid-April of last year, and the southpaw is currently building up strength before he's able to return later in 2026. He was Chicago's Opening Day starter two years ago and has a career 3.30 regular-season ERA, so there's plenty of upside in his arm. However, the Cubs will undoubtedly be cautious with his return, and there could be a good degree of rust as well. Fantasy managers should target the 30-year-old as an intriguing stash candidate in 2026, though expectations should be tempered due to the long layoff. It's also possible Steele returns to a bullpen role, at least initially, with Chicago adding Edward Cabrera in the offseason to bolster its rotation.
Steele underwent UCL revision surgery on his left elbow in mid-April of last year, and the southpaw is currently building up strength before he's able to return later in 2026. He was Chicago's Opening Day starter two years ago and has a career 3.30 regular-season ERA, so there's plenty of upside in his arm. However, the Cubs will undoubtedly be cautious with his return, and there could be a good degree of rust as well. Fantasy managers should target the 30-year-old as an intriguing stash candidate in 2026, though expectations should be tempered due to the long layoff. It's also possible Steele returns to a bullpen role, at least initially, with Chicago adding Edward Cabrera in the offseason to bolster its rotation.
Pitching Stats
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2025 MLB Game Log
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
78
Last 10 Games
78
Last 5 Games
78
How many pitches does Justin Steele generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Justin Steele generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2025
-33%
BAA vs LHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023vs Left | .228 | 80 | 17 | 58 | 8 | |||
| Since 2023vs Right | .240 | 252 | 61 | 241 | 23 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .185 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .276 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 5 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .188 | 32 | 7 | 18 | 2 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .227 | 103 | 30 | 93 | 10 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .267 | 42 | 8 | 35 | 6 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .247 | 134 | 28 | 132 | 8 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-13%
ERA at Home
2025
-24%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023Home | 2.97 | 1.16 | 178.2 | 9.2 | 2.3 | ||||
| Since 2023Away | 3.43 | 1.12 | 152.0 | 8.9 | 1.9 | ||||
| 2025Home | 4.09 | 1.00 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 2.5 | ||||
| 2025Away | 5.40 | 1.29 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 1.5 | ||||
| 2024Home | 3.29 | 1.14 | 65.2 | 8.8 | 3.0 | ||||
| 2024Away | 2.87 | 1.06 | 69.0 | 9.3 | 2.0 | ||||
| 2023Home | 2.65 | 1.19 | 102.0 | 9.3 | 1.9 | ||||
| 2023Away | 3.66 | 1.15 | 71.1 | 9.0 | 1.9 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Justin Steele compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
4.20K/9
8.3BB/9
2.0HR/9
2.0Fastball
90.8 mphERA
4.76WHIP
1.15BABIP
.272GB/FB
1.23Left On Base
73.7%Exit Velocity
85.3 mphBarrels/BBE
4.7%Spin Rate
2449 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
30.2%Swinging Strike
9.6%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2025
2024
2023
2022
2016
Steele had a breakout season in 2023 but somewhat of a breakdown 2024 season when you look at him from a medical angle. The hamstring strain he incurred in his first start of the season led to him missing a month, but then left forearm soreness in late August was a scare, especially for someone who has already had Tommy John surgery. Thankfully, Steele made it back to throw two more games before the season ended, so some of the mystery around the injury was resolved. Steele continues to employ a very unusual repertoire for a starter, as he throws his four-seamer or his slider nearly 90 percent of the time. Lefties continued to have little success against him, while righties are still mostly kept at bay because Steele does not hurt himself with walks, and the use of the changeup and curve at least keep righties guessing. That combination has helped him become one of the better hard contact suppressors in the league. Nearly every indicator points in the right direction, but the health scare of September is a fresh reminder of his downside for 2025.
More Fantasy News
Resumes mound work
Steele (elbow) threw off a mound Jan. 16 for the first time since undergoing UCL revision surgery April 18, MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Avoids arbitration with Cubs
The Cubs and Steele (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.775 million contract Thursday, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.
Analysis
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Late start to season confirmed
Cubs manager Craig Counsell confirmed this week that Steele (elbow) will not be ready for the start of next season, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic report.
Analysis
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Begins throwing program
Steele (elbow) began a throwing program Monday, the pitcher posted from his X account.
Analysis
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Shifts to 60-day injured list
The Cubs transferred Steele (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Targeting return around May or June
Steele, who's rehabbing from an elbow injury that cost him most of the 2025 season, is planning to return to the Cubs rotation in May or June, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.
Analysis
Steele revealed that he's throwing 30-pitch bullpen sessions, so his rehab seems to be going in the right direction. It remains to be seen if the star hurler will be able to recapture his form right away, but nonetheless, having a pitcher of Steele's caliber back in the rotation will be a huge boost for a Chicago team that looks like a true contender in the NL.
Steele revealed that he's throwing 30-pitch bullpen sessions, so his rehab seems to be going in the right direction. It remains to be seen if the star hurler will be able to recapture his form right away, but nonetheless, having a pitcher of Steele's caliber back in the rotation will be a huge boost for a Chicago team that looks like a true contender in the NL.