JT Brubaker

If nothing else, Brubaker was expected to eat a significant number of innings for the Pirates in 2023. There was also some reason to be optimistic that his surface stats would improve after he showed growth in limiting the long ball, but all hopes were dashed after he dealt with forearm and elbow issues late in spring training. Shortly thereafter, it was announced that he would need Tommy John surgery. That not only ended his 2023 campaign, but it also leaves his status for 2024 unclear. According to most recent reports, he is throwing from flat ground up to 120 feet with the goal of making his season debut shortly after the All-Star break. As a result, he's safe to avoid in nearly all fantasy formats, with the best-case scenario being he becomes a streaming option upon his return.

Brubaker has posted remarkably similar skills across each of his first three seasons in the majors, maintaining a strikeout rate between 22.8 and 24 percent and a walk rate between 7.1 and 8.4 percent. His surface stats have had more variance than those numbers may suggest, as he has ERAs between 4.69 and 5.36. That fluctuation has largely been dependent on his home run rate, which spiked to 2.0 in 2021 but shifted to a more reasonable mark of 1.0 in 2022. His viability for fantasy purposes will depend on how well he controls the long ball moving forward, and the possibility for him to take a step forward is masked somewhat by some bad luck that he ran into last season (68.8 LOB% and .334 BABIP). However, his FIP and xFIP (3.92 and 3.87, respectively) suggest there's room for improvement in his surface stats. Brubaker has the feel of a more valuable mid-rotation starter for a big-league club for fantasy purposes, but he could have lengthy periods of usefulness in 15-team or deeper leagues and will be a reasonable streaming candidate in the right matchups in more shallow formats.

Brubaker took a step back in his second big-league season in 2021, finishing with a 5.36 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 129:34 K:BB across 124.1 innings (24 starts). His 24.0 percent strikeout rate and 7.1 percent walk rate were solid, but a 2.03 HR/9 derailed any chance of potential success. The 28-year-old is poised to start Opening Day for Pittsburgh and could easily see some improvement from last year, but he's unlikely to turn into a consistent fantasy asset, especially with wins likely difficult to come by with the Pirates.

Brubaker made his big-league debut in 2020, starting nine games and relieving in two more. His 4.94 ERA in 47.1 innings was generally unimpressive, but his 4.08 FIP and 4.14 xFIP shine a more optimistic light on him. His 23.4 K% was exactly league average, while his 8.3 BB% and 46.7% groundball rates were both slightly better than average, adding up to at least a fine back-end arm. He struggled against lefties, who hit .287/.379/.436 against him, perhaps unsurprisingly given that his primary off-speed pitches are a slider and a curve. He threw his changeup less than 5% of the time. Further development of that pitch could improve his profile, but he still looks like a big-league starter without it. At age 27, he's old for a second-year player, so there's probably not a lot of development left here, leaving him part of a large group of interchangeable late-round options in larger leagues.