Jose Urquidy

Urquidy compiled a career-high 164.1 innings as he started 28 games in 29 appearances. His strikeout rate ticked down while his walk rate inched up from the previous year, but it was nothing to warrant concern. As a fly ball pitcher, Urquidy generally sports a low BABIP. Last season's .264 was higher than 2021's .237, but he still benefited from some batted ball luck last season. Urquidy's ERA estimators tabbed his 3.94 mark to be between a quarter and half a run too low. Some may give him the benefit of the doubt and lump Urquidy in with the rest of the Astros talented arms, but he's nowhere near as dominant, thus vulnerable to more variance. Houston has a knack getting the most out of their pitcher's stuff, but Urquidy's spin and velocity isn't as high as his teammates. Put together, Urquidy is a league average pitcher, which is fine. Just don't expect another level typical of Astros' hurler.

Urquidy is beginning to establish an interesting profile. He has an effective mix of pitches, led by the great changeup, but pairs all of it up with strong command to get the most out of what he has. The profile lines up with a modern day James Shields, but without the workhorse innings "Big Game James" threw in the previous era. Urquidy missed a chunk of the summer with shoulder troubles, reminding us that he's yet to work more than 110 innings in a single season. Like Shields, Urquidy is susceptible to the long ball when he misses his location, something Minute Maid Field does not help hide at all. His changeup gets the attention, but don't overlook his slider which has similar swing-and-miss potential thanks to its above-average horizontal movement which hitters have a tough time barreling up. Interest in fantasy is warranted, but the lack of a durability track record is concerning.

Urquidy tested positive for COVID-19 in summer camp, then quarantined for a month before rebuilding his arm strength. He debuted in early September, making five regular-season starts. After just 3.2 frames in his first game, Urquidy alternated six- and seven-inning outings, a good sign in today's landscape. His 14.7 K% is misleading as Urquidy faced the Diamondbacks and Angels, two lineups with low strikeout rates, and a mid-pack Athletics squad. In 14 innings against the Rangers, Urquidy fanned a respectable 12 batters. However, regression on a .209 BABIP should be expected, and that should give you some pause; his 5.36 xFIP and 5.41 SIERA essentially doubled his 2.73 ERA. Embarking on his age-26 season, Urquidy is likely to have his innings monitored, and his 93.5-mph fastball is average by today's standards. This is a solid, but not truly dominant, skill set.

Urquidy entered 2019 as an unheralded prospect, sporting quality earned run averages and walk rates with middling strikeout totals. He finished his first full season since 2017 Tommy John surgery as a member of the rotation for the top seed in the American League. A velocity jump fueled his rise. He sat 90-91 mph with his fastball before TJS, but averaged 93 mph and touched 97 last year. His slider and changeup are quality offerings, but his top tool is plus command. In seven starts and two relief appearances at the big-league level, his walk rate was low as usual (4.2%), though his strikeout rate dropped to a merely good 24.0%. He had some gems and a couple clunkers, and when he was on, he looked the part of at least a mid-rotation starter. Entering his age-24/25 season, he appears poised to be the No. 4 or No. 5 starter on a team that has won 100-plus games in each of the last three seasons.