Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Kiner-Falefa's time in New York finally came to an end after a two-year run which saw him lose his starting job while he also did everything but pitch and catch on the field. The disappointing thing for fantasy managers is that IKF was not able to take full advantage of the new stolen base market after a two-year run which saw him succeed in 42 of his 51 stolen base attempts. Power was never in the picture and living in the bottom of the lineup was always the plan, but even the Yankees could no longer tolerate the lack of production from Kiner-Falefa as he struggled to hit in 2023. The six percentage point jump in his strikeout rate was uncharacteristic for him and the impact of that is seen in his batting average. He lacks the power that fantasy managers want to see from a 3B/OF eligible player but we also expect IKF to pick up another position or two in-season. It would not surprise us if he has a bounceback season of sorts away from the pressures of The Bronx.

Kiner-Falefa went from the Rangers to the Twins to the Yankees last winter, and his first season in New York went more or less as expected. He provided a strong glove at shortstop and had a .261/.314/.327 slash line with four home runs and 22 steals in 142 games. His already limited power took a step back with a .066 ISO as he had just 24 extra-base hits. Kiner-Falefa has reached double-digit steals in back-to-back seasons and has a solid .267 average during that stretch, but his 5.2 percent walk rate and minimal power severely limit his potential. His 86.2-mph exit velocity and measly 1.2 percent barrel rate were among the worst in the league for qualified hitters. The light-hitting shortstop remained with the Yankees on a one-year, $6 million deal to avoid arbitration, but he seems unlikely to be the everyday starter again in 2023 with Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera pushing for playing time. Kiner-Falefa's fantasy utility is mostly limited to steals, so his limited value will plummet even further if he's not consistently in the lineup.

Kiner-Falefa had value coming into the 2021 season with dual-eligibility and a high spot in the Texas lineup. Following a couple blockbuster pre-lockout signings, the Rangers opted to deal him to Minnesota along with a pitching prospect in exchange for Mitch Garver. The next day he was traded in a blockbuster deal to the Yankees. New York is likely to enter the season with Kiner-Falefa as the starting shortstop, largely due to his strong defense. With a career .316 OBP, he seems likely to hit at or near the bottom of the lineup, and he will need to hold his own on offense in order to keep the starting job all season. If can hold the job, Kiner-Falefa could be a source of double-digit steals with the nominal counting stats of a bottom-third of a lineup hitter.

Where did that come from? Kiner-Falefa finished 2019 as a backup catcher with bad offensive numbers, but came into 2020 as the starting third baseman, then was surprisingly good at the plate, even better in the field and earned a Gold Glove for his performance. He made some changes to his swing mechanics and closed some holes that were in his swing in 2019, allowing him to hit for a higher average to reach base more frequently. While on base, he stole a career high eight bases, although he was caught five times. The change in swing mechanics did not translate into any more over-the-fence power, but the new home ballpark was tough on everyone in 2020. Kiner-Falefa has lost his catcher eligibility, but he is now eligible at both positions on the left side of the infield, and that flexibility is the top selling point because another statistical level is not apparent as much as a potential step backward is.

A catcher-eligible player who plays elsewhere is usually highly sought after in fantasy baseball, but the player has to be able to hit for it to matter. Kiner-Falefa retains C-eligibility heading into 2020, but unfortunately, it seems we can safely conclude that Kiner-Falefa cannot hit. His K-rate shot up more than six percentage points, from 15.7% to 22.1%, while his wOBA dipped more than 30 points. He only barreled up two balls all year -- by Statcast's definition of a "barrel" -- and on account of that, Statcast says he overachieved to a significant extent with a .238 BA. Kiner-Falefa logged 22 starts at third base over the final two months of 2019, but he was pretty much unusable, even in deep two-catcher leagues. While the Rangers seem to like Kiner-Falefa's intangibles, he's a utility man at best and will likely see a downgrade in park factors in 2020 with the move to Globe Life Field.

Kiner-Falefa got the call to Texas as an injury replacement in mid-April and surprisingly stuck around for the remainder of the season. His approach survived the transition to the major leagues, as the 23-year-old took walks at close to an average clip while putting bat to ball with good consistency (15.7% strikeout rate). Unfortunately, he didn't drive the ball with much authority when he made contact -- 29.3% hard-hit rate, .096 ISO. He hit the ball into the ground a lot (51.2%) and that combined with only modest speed resulted in 14 GDPs in 396 plate appearances. After Elvis Andrus returned from injury, the Rangers chose to transition Kiner-Falefa to a catching role rather than send him back to the minors, which was surprising given his limited experience behind the plate in the minors. It spoke to how highly the team thinks of Kiner-Falefa. That said, he's not a starting-caliber player in real life, and is an unexciting second catcher in 15-team leagues.

Injuries have opened the door for Kiner-Falefa, a fourth-round pick out of Mid Pacific Institute High School in 2013. He is expected to play regularly at second base while Rougned Odor is out with a hamstring injury, but Kiner-Falefa has not displayed mixed-league-worthy skills in the minor leagues. The 23-year-old's batting eye is respectable -- he had a 7.2 percent walk rate and 12.6 percent strikeout rate in 570 plate appearances at the Double-A level in 2017 -- but there is a total absence of power with Kiner-Falefa. His career-high ISO on the farm is .101, a number buoyed by the favorable conditions in Frisco (the most hitter-friendly park in the Texas League). He had just a .368 SLG on the road that year and his ISO has not exceeded .064 at any other stop. Further, while Kiner-Falefa ran some last season, totaling 17 stolen bases, he hasn't been efficient as a base stealer in the minors (51-for-77) and he will likely be stuck at the bottom of the order when he's playing for Texas.