Burch Smith

Armed with a fastball that once reached triple digits, Smith is trying to return from 2015 Tommy John surgery after being selected by the Royals in the Rule 5 draft in December. Even if the Royals opt to keep him on the 25-man roster, he may have to begin in a low-leverage role, as he posted a 14:9 K:BB with 10 earned runs allowed over his first 10 innings in Cactus League play. He'll need to string together a prolonged run of productive innings out of the bullpen before it's worth considering him as a potential staff filler in deep formats.

Smith looked poised to begin 2015 in the Rays rotation due to a torrent of injuries to their starters, but that torrent soon claimed him too and sent him straight to the Tommy John operating room in April. Due to this, he’ll sit out a good chunk of 2016 before an abbreviated return in the later months of the season. Smith was one of the assets brought home in the Wil Myers trade and the Rays are hoping he can still be a back-end starter in the majors. He hasn’t had a real season since 2013, when strong results in Double-A, then Triple-A, pushed him to seven starts with the Padres. The resulting 6.44 ERA wasn’t great, but his projectable frame and low-to-mid 90s fastball mean that he’ll probably be given another chance at starter once he finishes rehab. If he can’t handle that, he will have a future as a long man out of the bullpen.

A forearm strain limited Smith to just two appearances at Triple-A during the 2014 season. The results were disastrous, but the sample size is too small to be meaningful. He recovered from the injury and made nine appearances in relief during the Arizona Fall League, but was prone to hard contact and didn't miss bats at a clip anywhere near the one he maintained during his meteoric rise through the Padres' system in 2012 and 2013. Before the arm issue, Smith was flashing a mid-90s fastball that could touch triple digits, with secondary offerings that were still works in progress. He struggled to keep his pitches down in the zone during his taste of the big leagues, and his fastball doesn't have much movement, which makes him susceptible to very hard contact when he misses his spot. If he's healthy, he may end up contributing as a power arm out of the bullpen after his trade to Tampa Bay, but a lost season has only added to the list of questions about one of the most surprising breakouts of 2013.

A 14th-round selection in the 2011 draft, Smith emerged from nowhere to dominate Double-A San Antonio in the first month of the season, resulting in a callup to the Padres. However, the experiment failed, as he was bombarded in three starts encompassing just 7.1 innings and was promptly sent to Triple-A Tucson to try his wares in the Pacific Coast League. Seven subsequent appearances in the majors are much more indicative of his ability, namely a 35:15 K:BB ratio, but he must reduce his propensity to serve up the long ball, considering a 1.6 HR/9 across 29 frames during that span. Nevertheless, his mid-90s fastball will be given an opportunity to earn a rotation spot, however unlikely, in spring training.