Andrew Painter

Painter seemingly had a chance to spend most of his age-20 season in the Phillies' rotation, but his elbow started barking early in spring training and he ended up getting Tommy John surgery in late-July after months of attempted rehab. At the time of his initial early-March injury, Painter was arguably the game's best pitching prospect, and he could regain that title once he's fully healthy. However, given the time of the surgery, it seems highly unlikely he makes his big-league debut until 2025. He could make some rehab starts in late-2024 and could potentially pitch in the Arizona Fall League. Painter will still be just 22 for the 2025 season, so he's not behind schedule. It's roughly a 90 percent success rate for pitchers Painter's age who need the surgery, and there were no skill-related concerns with the 6-foot-7 righty the last time we saw him healthy. He has frontline upside long term.

Painter, a lean 6-foot-7 righty whom the Phillies selected out of high school with the No. 13 overall pick in 2021, dominated Single-A hitters (35.6 K-BB%) across nine starts to open his first full season. It was noteworthy, but many pitchers with command of complete arsenals (four pitches led by 70-grade upper-90s fastball and plus slider) cruise through that level of the minors. However, prospectors really started taking notice when Painter didn't skip a beat after promotions to High-A and Double-A. His walk rate actually fell from 10.7% at Single-A to 4.9% at High-A and 1.8% in 28.1 innings at Double-A while his strikeout rate remained above 33%. He led qualified minor-league starters in WHIP and K-BB% and ranked second in ERA and won't turn 20 until April 10. A distinguishing factor for Painter relative to some of the game's other top young pitching prospects is that he threw six-plus innings in eight of his 22 starts and completed seven innings three times. The idea of a pitcher this young making an impact in a big-league rotation will be hard for some to buy, but Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski brought Jeremy Bonderman and Rick Porcello to the majors as 20-year-olds when he ran things in Detroit, and the Phillies have a top-heavy rotation with room for a fresh face in 2023. Sometimes when teenagers dominate like this across their first full-season, the encore can be disappointing (Forrest Whitley, MacKenzie Gore). Jose Fernandez's 2013 rookie season is a best-case example. If Painter picks up where he left off this spring, the notion of him winning a rotation spot out of camp will start to gain traction and the market will react accordingly.