Andrew Chafin

Chafin only threw 9.2 innings in 2020, so last season was his first pitching with the three-batter minimum rule. In 2019, Chafin faced lefthanders 60 percent of the time, but last year the southpaw faced lefties in just 39 percent of plate appearances. The shift didn't affect Chafin as his OPS against righthanders was a stingy .551 and an even more frugal .473 with the platoon edge. Normally, Chafin's groundball tilt limits homers, but renders a high BABIP. Lasts season, he yielded a customarily low four homers in 68.2 innings, while enjoying a fortunate .232 BABIP. Facing more righthanders did lower Chafin's strikeout rate, so he needed all the luck he could muster. Chafin's 1.83 ERA and .93 WHIP from last season may look enticing, but they are both due a steep correction. There are safer options in leagues where middle relievers are useful.

Chafin bears a resemblance to former closer Todd Jones. He pitches like him with the two-pitch mixture, but he has 317 fewer career saves than the former Tigers stopper. Chafin is a slider-first pitcher, as he throws the pitch 40% of the time with good reason. It is an excellent pitch which has generated a mid-20s whiff percentage the past few years. His fastball is decent enough, but the slider is the money maker for Chafin. That's the pitch that has helped him strike out at least 25% of the hitters he has faced in each of the past four seasons. The lefty does a decent enough job against righties so he can shed a LOOGY label, but he will pitch around righties to get to lefties which impacts his WHIP in a negative way. In NL-leagues, he's a quality source of reliever strikeouts but offers little value otherwise.

Chafin made 77 appearances and recorded a 3.10 ERA, overcoming a poor 11.9% walk rate with above-average strikeout (25.1%) and groundball (50.4%) rates. His role began to approach true-LOOGY territory, however, limiting his total innings to just 49.1 and putting a cap on his fantasy value. His average appearance was a career-low 0.64 innings, while a career-high 51% of the batters he faced were lefties. He actually fared better against righties, holding them to a .257 wOBA compared to .302 for lefties, though that's likely a one-season, BABIP-driven blip, as he's historically had fairly typical splits. The 28-year-old will likely remain a competent bullpen piece for the Diamondbacks this season, but he's unlikely to be considered in the closer conversation, and he doesn't have the high workload or dominant strikeout rate required to be a valuable fantasy asset without saves.

Chafin was among the unheralded bullpen options who stepped up to provide the D-backs with quality innings in 2017. He was used in a variety of roles, logging 51.1 innings in 71 appearances, a workload considerably heavier than that of a LOOGY. Chafin missed bats at a good clip (27.6 percent) and managed to trim his walk rate from 11.2 to 9.5 percent, churning out an ERA (3.51) that was more in line with his FIP (3.39) than the 6.75 mark he pitched to in 32 appearances in 2016. Holding lefties to a .217/.281/.284 line, Chafin needs to continue improving against righties (.261/.354/.439) in order to take another step forward. Working frequently with a sinker and slider combo, Chafin continues to get a lot of outs on the ground (56.3 percent). If he can do that, more high-leverage opportunities may be on tap, but Chafin is unlikely to close with Brad Boxberger and Archie Bradley ahead of him in the pecking order for saves in the Arizona bullpen.

After a stellar 2015, Chafin endured a disappointing 2016. The lefty was slowed by shoulder and groin injuries, and he ended up only pitching 22.2 innings at the big league level. A year earlier, Chafin led Arizona relievers by appearing in 66 games and tossing 75 innings. That year, he posted a 2.76 ERA to go along with a 1.15 WHIP. Those numbers ballooned last year. There were some encouraging signs, however. Chafin bumped his K/9 rate to 11.1 -- a significant jump from the 7.0 figure he posted in 2015. And Chafin's 2.89 FIP last season indicates that he was the victim of some bad luck. If he can keep his strikeout rate up, Chafin should post good numbers as one of Arizona's top left-handed relievers. Look for Chafin to gobble up some more holds after he recorded six last season and 16 in 2015.

Chafin was a key contributor to the Arizona bullpen in 2015, leading the unit in games and innings. In his age-25 season the lefty posted a 2.76 ERA across 75 innings, while striking out 58. He was particularly tough on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .182 batting average (righties hit .225 off Chafin). Now entering his second full season with the Diamondbacks, Chafin is poised to once again be a big part of the bullpen. Brad Ziegler figures to return as the closer, meaning Chafin, who had 16 holds a season ago, could be the main setup guy, though his effectiveness against lefties might lead to him pitching earlier in games depending on matchups. Any ineffectiveness on Ziegler’s part could lead to a change at the back end of the Arizona bullpen, although Daniel Hudson is probably a more likely replacement option than Chafin.

Chafin enjoyed a measure of prospect status coming up with the Diamondbacks as a former first-round pick, but his stuff leveled out a bit in the high minors, giving him more of a back-end projection as opposed to someone who could be an impact starter. His command and control faltered at Triple-A, but he still earned three late-season starts that contained limited success. Chafin’s best-case scenario is to become a Patrick Corbin-lite by tightening up his command to curb the free passes and long balls. There is no room at the inn with the Diamondbacks' rotation right now so Chafin will likely have to hone his skills in Triple-A, which can be tricky given the PCL hitting environment. While the best-case scenario involves a rotation spot, the most likely scenario puts Chafin in the bullpen though not necessarily as just a lefty-killer.

The left-handed Chafin had a very good year at High-A and Double-A in 2013, showing improved control after the promotion while seeing his strikeout rate fall. He sports three very effective pitches, mixing a fastball, slider and changeup in his arsenal. Chafin will likely open the season at Triple-A Reno alongside Archie Bradley, and he sits in the same boat as many of the Diamondbacks' young pitching prospects: an injury, trade, or letdown away from a chance at a few starts in Phoenix.