This article is part of our Rounding Third series.
Trevor Story underwent a surprise procedure on his throwing elbow on Tuesday. The Red Sox described the surgery as an internal bracing procedure, which has been described by others as an alternative to "Tommy John" ligament replacement surgery, one that can accelerate the timetable for a player's return by a few months. The team did not give a timetable for Story's return, but often it's at least six months before a player can make it back.
Story is already coming off a season in which he played just 94 games due to a broken hand and then a heel injury. He's had elbow issues before, to the point where he needed to get medical clearance to sign with the Red Sox. But the team said that this was a new injury, suffered during the ramping up process just before Christmas, according to the excellent reporting from The Athletic's Jen McCaffery. That would explain why he "waited" until now to get the procedure done. The timing, a month before most teams report to spring training, is inopportune especially for the Red Sox, who have already lost Xander Bogaerts to the Padres via free agency and have not replaced him. Now they have to replace both middle infielders for at least half the season. I've downgraded Story's projection to only 61 games played. That might be overly optimistic, especially if the Red Sox aren't competitive in 2023. In redraft leagues, especially those without unlimited IL spots, I'm essentially crossing Story off
Trevor Story underwent a surprise procedure on his throwing elbow on Tuesday. The Red Sox described the surgery as an internal bracing procedure, which has been described by others as an alternative to "Tommy John" ligament replacement surgery, one that can accelerate the timetable for a player's return by a few months. The team did not give a timetable for Story's return, but often it's at least six months before a player can make it back.
Story is already coming off a season in which he played just 94 games due to a broken hand and then a heel injury. He's had elbow issues before, to the point where he needed to get medical clearance to sign with the Red Sox. But the team said that this was a new injury, suffered during the ramping up process just before Christmas, according to the excellent reporting from The Athletic's Jen McCaffery. That would explain why he "waited" until now to get the procedure done. The timing, a month before most teams report to spring training, is inopportune especially for the Red Sox, who have already lost Xander Bogaerts to the Padres via free agency and have not replaced him. Now they have to replace both middle infielders for at least half the season. I've downgraded Story's projection to only 61 games played. That might be overly optimistic, especially if the Red Sox aren't competitive in 2023. In redraft leagues, especially those without unlimited IL spots, I'm essentially crossing Story off my list.
If the Red Sox don't trade for a middle infielder, their likely initial options are to play Christian Arroyo at second base and Enrique Hernandez at shortstop. But doing so would then leave center field open, with really only Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder available to fill the spot in the short term. Niko Goodrum signed as an NRI this offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the team with a cromulent spring training.
The Red Sox have two top middle-infield prospects worth watching. Marcelo Mayer was the first-round pick for the Red Sox in 2021 and made it up to High-A Greenville last year. He has more power than his home run totals suggest, but perhaps less speed than his minor-league stolen base totals indicate. I don't think Boston would have him race through Double-A and Triple-A just to salvage this season, but a hot start by Mayer would make things interesting. Nick Yorke took a big step back at High-A Greenville after a huge 2021 campaign. Some of that can be attributed to multiple injuries, but overall it was a very disappointing season. Like Mayer, I don't think Yorke will be rushed, but he's on the long horizon.
Meanwhile, the second base player pool for 2023 fantasy leagues is thinning at the top like my 51-year-old hairline. Story was one of only seven second basemen to get drafted in the top 100 in early NFBC drafts, as a number of batters have lost their second base eligibility, like Trea Turner and Ty France. There are plenty of depth options after pick 100, but if you want to have a difference-maker at the position, you might have to act a little earlier to get the likes of Marcus Semien, Jose Altuve, Jazz Chisholm or Ozzie Albies.
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After failing physicals with the Giants and the Mets, Carlos Correa finally landed back with the Twins, agreeing to a six-year, $200 million deal and passing his physical there on Wednesday. Correa's defense and age to market made him so valuable — he's actually been less of a productive fantasy shortstop than Xander Bogaerts and especially Trea Turner. He's a good illustration that our game doesn't always capture a player's real-life value. While Correa might produce fewer counting stats with the Twins than he would have elsewhere, especially with the Mets, at least his ballpark with the Twins will hurt him less than he would have been hurt in San Francisco or New York. He's going anywhere from the 10th to 20th shortstop taken in most leagues right now.
Kyle Farmer signed as a free agent with the Twins was traded to the Twins earlier this offseason, and Correa's signing blocks Farmer from a full-time starting job at one position. The Twins have Jorge Polanco at second base and Jose Miranda at third base, so Farmer will have to rely on the Twins mixing-and-matching to squeeze him into the lineup. In the long-run, this move also cements the Twins' decision to move Royce Lewis to the outfield. Lewis had just gotten called back up after spending time to learn center field in Triple-A, but then tore his ACL on an injury that was first diagnosed as a bone bruise. The Twins might have to move Lewis to a corner, pending on whether Byron Buxton is healthy at any given moment.
As for the Mets, Correa was slated to play third base for them. Instead, they're left splitting the position between Eduardo Escobar and Luis Guillorme, for now. "For now" is doing a lot of work here, though, as they also feature a top prospect at third base in Brett Baty. Baty suffered a torn UCL in his thumb in late August — he's expected to be fully recovered by the start of spring training. It'll then be a question if he's got his power back, and whether the Mets think he's ready. I suspect that absent a monster spring, Baty will begin the season in the minors, but Escobar/Guillorme will be on a short leash.
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The Tigers announced on Wednesday that they are moving in the center field fence from 422 feet to 412 feet, and they're also lowering the fence height to seven feet between right field and center field. Previously it was 8.5 feet tall in right field and center field, and 13 feet tall in right-center. The Tigers explicitly acknowledged in Evan Petzold's excellent article that they were trying to boost their offense:
"This has been a topic of conversation for quite some time within our organization," Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said in a statement. "We're confident that this plan accomplishes our goals of improving offensive conditions on the hardest hit balls, while maintaining Comerica Park's unique dimensions and style of play."
It's worth noting that even after moving center field in by 10 feet, Comerica Park still has the second deepest center field in the majors. While not as extreme in preventing homers as Arizona, it still ranked as a bottom-five indexed park for home runs last year. Riley Greene strikes me as the primary Tigers beneficiary of the move, along with Akil Baddoo, Kerry Carpenter and Austin Meadows. On the flip side, I worry about what it means for Matt Manning — according to Statcast, only Yankee Stadium was as good as Comerica was for Manning in preventing homers.
Overall, I don't think this set of changes will have the same pronounced effect of increasing power in Tigers games as the moves in Camden Yards did in depressing power last year, but it's one of those moves that might otherwise go undetected.
