This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
Last week, we covered 10 hitters off to slow starts and theorized whether we should be concerned or patient with certain guys. This week we have a bit of a larger sample size to try and conclude about pitchers in similar scenarios. Of course, it's still only mid-April, but is there something we can see in these 10 guys to conclude either way? Let's take a look.
Aaron Nola, PHI
It's not a velocity issue with Nola, so how do we explain his 6.46 ERA in three starts? His 7.6 K/9 is well off last year's 9.5, and his walk rate has nearly doubled – from a 2.5 BB/9 to 4.7 this year. He's generating swinging strikes at just an 8.1 percent rate, well off the league average of 11.1, and even further off his 12.4 percent mark from a year ago. Much of the ERA is due to his allowing five home runs in 15.1 innings, as of his 15 fly balls, five have gone out of the yard for a 33.3 percent HR/FB rate, well above the league average that usually hovers in the 11 percent range. That number will obviously come down, and we have to expect the control and command to improve. Nola's 2018 ERA (2.37) likely wasn't repeatable, as it came with a 2.95 FIP, but clearly the HR/FB rate will drop, and after walking just one in 6.1 innings last time out, the walk rate will most likely drop significantly as the year
Last week, we covered 10 hitters off to slow starts and theorized whether we should be concerned or patient with certain guys. This week we have a bit of a larger sample size to try and conclude about pitchers in similar scenarios. Of course, it's still only mid-April, but is there something we can see in these 10 guys to conclude either way? Let's take a look.
Aaron Nola, PHI
It's not a velocity issue with Nola, so how do we explain his 6.46 ERA in three starts? His 7.6 K/9 is well off last year's 9.5, and his walk rate has nearly doubled – from a 2.5 BB/9 to 4.7 this year. He's generating swinging strikes at just an 8.1 percent rate, well off the league average of 11.1, and even further off his 12.4 percent mark from a year ago. Much of the ERA is due to his allowing five home runs in 15.1 innings, as of his 15 fly balls, five have gone out of the yard for a 33.3 percent HR/FB rate, well above the league average that usually hovers in the 11 percent range. That number will obviously come down, and we have to expect the control and command to improve. Nola's 2018 ERA (2.37) likely wasn't repeatable, as it came with a 2.95 FIP, but clearly the HR/FB rate will drop, and after walking just one in 6.1 innings last time out, the walk rate will most likely drop significantly as the year goes on. Both games in which he was hit hard came against the Nationals, who can certainly do damage, so I wouldn't worry at all here:
Verdict: Patience
Miles Mikolas, STL
Mikolas has a 6.00 ERA through four starts, and in those starts, he's allowed three runs three times and five runs once. So, he's not exactly getting shelled, but he's also been consistently mediocre. He struggled against LH hitters last year, and that group is back at it in 2019, batting .333 in 45 PA against him. Mikolas' already-low K/9 has tanked to 4.7 this year, and his walk rate is also going the wrong direction, though it's still an excellent 2.1 per nine. A bump in his FB percentage, from 28.5 to 31.5, isn't helping either, and though his velocity is down a little, it's not a huge concern this early in the season. One real concern is Mikolas' slider, a pitch that ranked among the best in baseball last year, but grades as below average in 2019 with an average velocity drop of 1.4 mph. That's a little alarming. Mikolas struggled to a 6.23 ERA this spring as well, so that's carrying over. Mikolas finished sixth in the Cy Young voting last year, so it's tough to see him falling apart and being kicked out of the rotation, but something is a bit off.
Verdict: Panic
Michael Wacha, STL
If you look at just runs allowed, Wacha has had one bad and two good starts in putting up the following lines (IP-H-ER-R-BB-K):
6-4-1-1-4-7
5.2-3-1-1-8-7
3.2-8-7-7-1-3
Either way, that still translates to an ugly 7.6 BB/9, and factoring in a similarly bloated 2.35 HR/9, there you have a 5.28. He's actually lucky to be that low, as his FIP sits at 6.86. Wacha has flashed No. 2 starter potential at times, but he's made just 30 starts twice in his five full seasons, and even when healthy, he's yet to reach the levels he showed earlier in his career. The decline in velocity is concerning:
Average fastball by year:
2017 – 95.1 mph
2018 – 93.5 mph
2019 – 92.6 mph
Factor in terrible control and being punished with home runs when he is in the zone, and you have a guy who probably winds up either in the bullpen or on the IL soon.
Verdict: Panic
Nick Pivetta, PHI
2019 marked the second consecutive season in which I bought in on Pivetta as a breakout candidate solely due to the strikeout rate. To be fair, they are pretty impressive rates:
2017 – 9.5 K/9
2018 – 10.3 K/9
2019 – 9.5 K/9
Unfortunately, Pivetta's 3.3 BB/9 (career) is below average, and his 1.5 HR/9 is just bad. Pivetta is still averaging a solid 94 mph on his fastball, but we're talking about a guy with a 5.51 career ERA in 61 starts. Maybe his ability to command and control his pitches catches up to his raw stuff at some point, but when I watch him, the curve ball location simply hasn't been there, and when he needs to throw strikes, hitters have sat on the fastball. Pivetta's curve graded as a plus pitch last year but is in the negative this year, as are all of his other offerings. I guess to look on the bright side, the strikeouts are still there, and he's dropped his FB percentage to 26.5 (35 percent career), but I'm probably done owning him until we see some improvement in his command.
Verdict: Panic
Zack Wheeler, NYM
Wheeler got off to a rough start with a 10.24 ERA in his first two outtings but dropped that to 7.47 with six innings of two-run ball in his last outing in Atlanta. Wheeler's velocity is up this year, and up significantly, with a 97.4 mph average fastball versus last year's 95.9. Wheeler is struggling with his control with a 6.3 BB/9 after dropping that to 2.7 last year, but three starts isn't enough of a sample size to call that a big concern. Wheeler has actually improved his GB percentage this year by nearly five points, though his hard hit rate is up nine, which speaks to a lack of command. Curiously, right-handed hitters are batting .297 against Wheeler this year versus a .212 mark a year ago, but he's performing better against lefties. Wheeler's FIP sits at 3.91, so he hasn't been quite as bad as the ERA indicates, so assuming the walks come down sharply and the velocity remains, he should be fine going forward.
Verdict: Patience
Corey Kluber, CLE
The velocity is pretty much still there, and Kluber's K/9 sits at an excellent 10.0, so the news isn't all bad. Of course, a 6.16 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, and 1.84 WHIP are bad. There are some warnings signs in the underlying data as well. His groundball rate sits at just 34.4 percent versus a career mark of 44.6. Kluber's hard-hit rate has skyrocketed to 44.3 percent (29.2 percent career), and his cutter hasn't graded out as well this year as in prior seasons. He's certainly not going to carry a .390 BABIP and 60.2 percent strand rate through the rest of the season, so things certainly will improve going forward. Kluber has had two excellent starts to go with two awful ones, so while the net isn't pretty, he's shown he can still be effective. Now, can he improve his shaky control and compete for a Cy Young? I certainly wouldn't argue against it. Either way, as a Kluber owner, you can't dump him or trade him for pennies on the dollar the way he's going, so you may as well keep him and hope for the best.
Verdict: Patience
Kyle Freeland, COL
After a solid first two starts, Freeland has allowed 10 runs in 10 innings in his last two to take his ERA to 5.40. The primary culprits, as they often are, include too many walks (4.2 BB/9) and home runs (1.3 HR/9). Freeland though has maintained his previous velocity and his groundball rate, so combined with the excellent strikeout rate, it should leave Freeland's owners optimistic. Keep in mind, Freeland was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2014 draft for a reason, and growing up in Denver could help explain his Coors Field success (3.30 ERA at home), so he's a guy I worry about less in terms of the Coors effect. Freeland had a 2.49 ERA in the second half of last year, but a 4.24 mark in April. He had a hot start in 2017, so we can't exactly conclude that he always gets off to slow starts in April. I haven't seen anything alarming, so Freeland should get better. Just don't expect a sub-3.00 ERA again, as Freeland's 3.61 FIP a year ago suggests that may not be sustainable going forward.
Verdict: Patience
Corbin Burnes, MIL
I really liked Burnes headed into this season and had him in a number of leagues, so yes, the 10.05 ERA hurts. Burnes has experienced a slight dip in velocity (half a mph) over last year, but that was to be expected with him moving from the bullpen to the rotation. He's still posted an elite 13.2 K/9, though his control has regressed (3.8 BB/9 vs. 2018's 2.6). The big issue obviously is the home run ball, as he's allowed three long balls in each of his three starts for a beyond-ugly 5.7 HR/9. Per BrooksBaseball.net, Burnes' fastball hasn't exactly been effective, as hitters are batting a whopping .421 with seven homers against it. In contrast, his slider has been very effective – .067 BAA with a home run. Problem is, he's throwing far less sliders (22.2 percent) than he threw as a reliever (34.3 percent), and that makes sense, as the slider is tough on the arm. To me, Burnes simply needs to vary his repertoire more:
| Pitch Type | Usage | BAA |
| Fastball | 56.9% | 0.421 |
| Slider | 23.0% | 0.067 |
| Sinker | 9.9% | 0.286 |
| Curve | 5.5% | 1.000 |
| Change | 4.7% | 1.000 |
The fastball would be much more effective if he mixed in the curve and change more frequently. If that doesn't happen, Burnes will likely wind up in the bullpen, and perhaps that's where he belongs anyway.
Verdict: Panic
Reynaldo Lopez, CHW
Lopez and his teammate Lucas Giolito are both guys who I've been waiting on seemingly for years now. Lopez had a solid first full season last year, recording a 3.91 ERA and 151 strikeouts over 188.2 innings. Not elite starter stuff, but at least a hope for a future breakout. This year hasn't started so well, as Lopez has been shelled in all three of his starts to the tune of a 12.15 ERA and 2.55 WHIP. His 12:12 K:BB is ugly, and in 13.1 innings, he's allowed six home runs. Is there really anything to like here? Sadly, not really. His velocity is down two-plus mph, he's shown zero control, and a 4.1 HR/9 isn't exactly stellar. Lopez has had some control issues in the past, and he's struggled to keep the ball in the park at times, but that's been magnified so far this year. Even in his mini-breakout year last year, Lopez's underlying metrics were average at best, including a 7.2 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Perhaps it's too early to conclude on any player's velocity, but Lopez is down 2.1 mph on his fastball, so combined with an 8.1 BB/9, there is certainly some cause for concern here. Lopez had a 1.09 ERA in September last year, so perhaps he's a slow starter and strong finisher, but there hasn't been much to be encouraged about this year.
Verdict: Panic
Carlos Carrasco, CLE
Coming off a start in which Carrasco surrendered six runs while recording just two outs, his ERA sits at a bloated 12.60 ERA in 10 innings over three starts. That's bad obviously, but a 15.3 K/9 is elite, and a 2.7 BB/9 is solid, giving Carrasco a reasonable 4.15 FIP this season. Carrasco has been hurt by allowing a home run in each of these three starts, and his early velocity is down nearly a mph over last year, so clearly the location and velocity aren't quite where he wants them to be. Again, it's early, but a 20.6 GB percentage is crazy-low considering his 48.7 percent career mark. More flyballs equates to more home runs, and Carrasco's HR/9 is an elevated 2.7 at this point. The strikeout rate is impressive, and although he's allowing a lot of home runs, it's tough to be too concerned about a guy with his track record, though it would be good to see the velocity trend back up over his next few outings.
Verdict: Patience
