This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
The first version of this article came out three months ago, and with my top 400 prospect rankings fully updated, I wanted to update these redraft tiers. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. The updated hitter tiers were published last week. I included essentially every pitcher (86 total) who I think has a chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out -- chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible. I wrote the outlooks for every player in the first four tiers, so go to the player's page if you want a full breakdown.
Two additions I've made for Vol. 2.0: for each player, I've included their NFBC 15-team Draft Champions ADP from Jan. 18 - Feb. 17 as well as my NFBC player shares from my seven draft-and-hold teams.
Please Stay Healthy
Baz is a future ace if he can stay relatively healthy. He clearly has the best stuff of the pitchers who go around pick 125, but he probably won't pitch more than 140 innings, even if he stays healthy all season.
Shane Baz TB (ADP: 126, Shares 2/7)
Universal Appeal
These are the other
The first version of this article came out three months ago, and with my top 400 prospect rankings fully updated, I wanted to update these redraft tiers. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. The updated hitter tiers were published last week. I included essentially every pitcher (86 total) who I think has a chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out -- chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible. I wrote the outlooks for every player in the first four tiers, so go to the player's page if you want a full breakdown.
Two additions I've made for Vol. 2.0: for each player, I've included their NFBC 15-team Draft Champions ADP from Jan. 18 - Feb. 17 as well as my NFBC player shares from my seven draft-and-hold teams.
Please Stay Healthy
Baz is a future ace if he can stay relatively healthy. He clearly has the best stuff of the pitchers who go around pick 125, but he probably won't pitch more than 140 innings, even if he stays healthy all season.
Shane Baz TB (ADP: 126, Shares 2/7)
Universal Appeal
These are the other three pitching prospects that should be getting drafted in standard mixed leagues. Ashby has the best stuff and should be part of a five- or six-man rotation for most of the season. Detmers has the second-best stuff and could win a rotation spot out of camp. Ryan has the third-best stuff and is a lock to pitch in the big-league rotation all season.
Aaron Ashby MIL (ADP: 269, Shares 2/7)
Reid Detmers LAA (ADP: 409, Shares 6/7)
Joe Ryan MIN (ADP: 211, Shares 0/7)
Priority Follows During Spring Training
Most of these guys could realistically win rotation spots in camp. The more I learn about Cody Morris, the more I think he is actually one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Check out his outlook for more on that.
CLEVELAND
Cody Morris (ADP: 569, Shares 3/7)
REDS
Hunter Greene (ADP: 422, Shares 1/7)
Nick Lodolo (ADP: 509, Shares 3/7) (shoulder/blister issues at end of '21 season)
Reiver Sanmartin (ADP: 495, Shares 2/7)
PIRATES
Roansy Contreras (ADP: 427, Shares 0/7)
Miguel Yajure (ADP: 722, Shares 2/7) (back injury)
YANKEES
Luis Gil (ADP: 482, Shares 2/7)
MARINERS
Matt Brash (ADP: 593, Shares 2/7)
RANGERS
Cole Winn (ADP: 654, Shares 4/7)
MARLINS
Edward Cabrera (ADP: 462, Shares 0/7)
Sixto Sanchez (ADP: 373, Shares 0/7) (shoulder surgery, reportedly didn't follow rehab plan from team)
ATLANTA
Kyle Muller (ADP: 528, Shares 0/7)
Tucker Davidson (ADP: 553, Shares 0/7) (returned from forearm injury in '21 playoffs)
GIANTS
Sammy Long (ADP: 585, Shares 1/7)
CARDINALS
Matthew Liberatore (ADP: 617, Shares 1/7)
TWINS
Josh Winder (ADP: 747, Shares 0/7) (shoulder injury)
RAYS
Tommy Romero (ADP: 681, Shares 1/7)
FAAB Events
While we will certainly want to pay attention to these guys in spring training, they are all near-locks to open the year at Triple-A, where they will likely remain for a month or more. Aside from in draft-and-hold formats, it's best not to draft these guys with our current information, as they could easily get injured weeks before a big-league promotion is even realistic. They are all talented enough to generate significant buzz upon news of their promotion, and it could require 10% or more of your FAAB budget to add them after that news breaks.
Grayson Rodriguez BAL (ADP: 462, Shares 1/7)
Cade Cavalli WAS (ADP: 560, Shares 2/7)
Max Meyer MIA (ADP: 492, Shares 0/7)
George Kirby SEA (ADP: 608, Shares 0/7)
Brandon Williamson SEA (ADP: 733, Shares 1/7)
Caleb Kilian CHC (ADP: 737, Shares 0/7)
DL Hall BAL (ADP: 737, Shares 0/7) (elbow injury)
Depth Options Of Varying Quality
These guys fall into one of two buckets. They're either very intriguing talents who may not see more than a handful of starts in the majors this season, or they're underwhelming talents who are good bets to get work in the bullpen or the rotation. Within each team, I've listed them in order of how likely I think it is that they provide positive fantasy value this season.
YANKEES
Hayden Wesneski (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Clarke Schmidt (ADP: 698, Shares 0/7)
Ken Waldichuk (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)
Deivi Garcia (ADP: 704, Shares 0/7)
Luis Medina (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)
TWINS
Jordan Balazovic (ADP: 727, Shares 0/7)
Cole Sands (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Drew Strotman (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Jhoan Duran (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7) (elbow injury)
ATLANTA
Bryce Elder (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)
Spencer Strider (ADP: 705, Shares 0/7)
CLEVELAND
Tobias Myers (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)
Konnor Pilkington (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Peyton Battenfield (ADP: 747, Shares 0/7)
Logan T. Allen (ADP: 741, Shares 0/7)
ORIOLES
Kyle Bradish (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)
RANGERS
Glenn Otto (ADP: 544, Shares 0/7)
A.J. Alexy (ADP: 650, Shares 0/7)
Yerry Rodriguez (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Jack Leiter (ADP: 747, Shares 0/7)
Ronny Henriquez (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
DIAMONDBACKS
Ryne Nelson (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)
Drey Jameson (ADP: 749, Shares 0/7)
Brandon Pfaadt (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
MARLINS
Braxton Garrett (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
ATHLETICS
Daulton Jefferies (ADP: 630, Shares 0/7) (elbow injury)
ROYALS
Angel Zerpa (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Drew Parrish (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Jon Heasley (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)
DODGERS
Andre Jackson (ADP: 746, Shares 0/7)
Ryan Pepiot (ADP: 749, Shares 0/7)
Landon Knack (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Bobby Miller (ADP: 746, Shares 0/7)
ANGELS
Davis Daniel (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Sam Bachman (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
CUBS
Brailyn Marquez (ADP: 749, Shares 0/7)
RED SOX
Connor Seabold (ADP: 745, Shares 0/7)
Kutter Crawford (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Brayan Bello (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Jay Groome(ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
PHILLIES
Hans Crouse (ADP: 743, Shares 0/7)
NATIONALS
Joan Adon (ADP: 690, Shares 0/7)
Seth Romero (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Gerardo Carrillo (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
REDS
Graham Ashcraft (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)
PADRES
MacKenzie Gore (ADP: 627, Shares 0/7)
Adrian Martinez (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
ASTROS
Shawn Dubin (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Hunter Brown (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Forrest Whitley (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7) (elbow surgery)
BREWERS
Ethan Small (ADP: 730, Shares 0/7)
GIANTS
Sean Hjelle (ADP: 749, Shares 0/7)
METS
Jose Butto (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
ROCKIES
Ryan Rolison (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)
Long Shots
These are the four best pitching prospects who I don't think have a realistic chance to debut this year. However, just the fact that they are so good means there's a slight chance we see them. We have seen cases like the late Jose Fernandez, where extremely special talents get pushed much more aggressively than we expect.
Daniel Espino CLE (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)
Kyle Harrison SF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Taj Bradley TB (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)
Eury Perez MIA (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)