This article is part of our MLB Daily Games Strategy series.
Last week I discussed using Game Theory to pick hitters that might be better than the general public thinks they are. This is a sneaky way to find value and points that are likely to be yours and yours alone. The idea behind using Game Theory in DFS is that if you and your opponent(s) have the same good plays in your lineup, you have no advantage. If you can find a genuinely high quality player that is often overlooked by sports fans and even daily DFS enthusiasts, you put yourself in a position to take the advantage in your games.
How can we apply this to pitchers? Well, first think about how SP score points for DFS. Innings pitched and strikouts are the keys to racking up fantasy points, while limiting hits and runs prevents negative scoring. To start, I looked at 2014 SP Quality Start percentages. To earn a QS, you have to pitch at least six innings and allow fewer than 3 earned runs.
Clayton Kershaw has 23 QS, an amazing 92% of his starts. Johnny Cueto (27 QS), Michael Fiers (6), Felix Hernandez (26), Jon Lester (25), Chris Sale (20), Cole Hamels (22), and Sonny Gray (24) all have between 80-87% QS this season. This is why you pay up for your SP, especially on one-pitcher sites like FanDuel.
Is there any value to be found here? There is. Sonny Gray is the single most overlooked, underrated SP in DFS, in my opinion. He's in elite company in terms of QS, has been back by a potent offense (albeit struggling lately), and is priced thousands less than the other guys in this tier. He always has low ownership and I love him in both two pitcher site cash games and GPPs.
Let's check the next tier. I'll highlight the obvious names with 70-80% QS, then get to the underlooked players I'm focussing on this week. In this group, you have Julio Teheran (24), Alex Wood (17), Adam Wainwright (23), Andrew Cashner (13), Jacob de Grom (16), Corey Kluber (23), Jordan Zimmerman (22), Garrett Richards (19), Hyun-jin Ryu (19), Tyson Ross (21), and Lance Lynn (21). These guys are typically priced fairly for their production and this is often where I look on two pitcher sites. For example, Monday night it was a great play to pair Cashner and de Grom.
Where is the value in this tier? You can get a discount on the equally consistent Yordano Ventura (20), Aaron Harang (22), Jonathon Niese (20), Rick Porcello (20), Dallas Keuchel (20), Michael Wacha (12), Alredo Simon (21), and Jake Arrieta (16) just about everywhere compared to the first set of names I mentioned. Public perception of guys like Porcello and Simon keeps their ownership low. I advocate picking your spot to deploy these guys, but in pitchers' parks, against weak offenses, these SP can give you a great advantage thanks to most of the field being on higher priced guys with similar upside.
The last thing to look for is hidden strike out potential. The K's really add up in DFS, and can save a pitcher's (and your) night if he does let a couple get away from him early on. Your top 10 K/9 SP are Kershaw, Sale, Max Scherzer, Steven Strasberg, David Price, Kluber, Jake Odorizzi, Ian Kennedy, Zack Greinke, Hernandez. Of these, Odorizzi and Kennedy stand out to me. Neither make the ultra consistent, high QS% list, but both present high enough K potential to warrant using in good matchups at their significantly cheaper salaries. The Cubs, Marlins, Astros, Braves, and White Sox are the teams that K the most. Targeting one of these high K SP in a great matchup is a perfect GPP play.
A couple even longer shots, more off the radar SP with fairly high K/9 (>8) are Drew Hutchison, Chris Archer, and Phil Hughes. These are definitely GPP only plays in the right matchup. Hopefully, keying in on SP that are highly ranked in important fantasy statistical categories, but who go overlooked by the majority of DFS players can give you an edge. Good luck this week!
