Padres Team Preview: Out Of Left Field

2015 San Diego Padres Preview: Out Of Left Field

Teams that finish dead last in every major offensive category one year usually don't generate much buzz heading into the next, but an unbelievable shakeup to the roster has made the Padres one of the most intriguing teams heading into the 2015 season.

Under the direction of new general manager A.J. Preller, the Padres will take the field on Opening Day with a very different looking lineup that gives their fans reason for optimism.

In 2014, the Padres finished with a respectable 77-85 record, but they've been mired in that sort of mediocrity for several years now. Offensive ineptitude plagued the Padres throughout the season and extinguished any hope of ending their seven-year postseason drought. Second baseman Jedd Gyorko had a rough go of it in his second year after an impressive rookie campaign. Gyorko signed a five-year, $35 million extension in April of 2014, but struggled to live up to the billing. He finished the year with a .210/.280/.333 batting line in 111 games after a long stint on the DL due to plantar fasciitis.

While winning in the offseason doesn't always translate to wins on the field, the Padres' flurry of moves makes them hard to ignore coming into the 2015 season. With a completely revamped offense, an impressive corps of starters and a bullpen that posted the second-best combined ERA last season (2.73), they now have the pieces to contend with the Dodgers and Giants in the NL West.

Offseason Moves

Traded Yasmani Grandal, Joe Wieland, and Zach Eflin to Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Tim Federowicz, and cash considerations.

Through April and May of 2014, Kemp appeared to be a broken-down version of the superstar who fell just one home run short of reaching the 40-40 plateau in 2011, as he hit just .248/.306/.418 with five home runs over his first 47 games. From June 1 on, he looked like an MVP candidate, hitting .303/.363/.545 with 20 homers and 74 RBI -- numbers that pace out to 32 homers and 117 RBI over a full 162-game slate. Perhaps most importantly, Kemp finished with 150 games played last season, his highest total since the aforementioned 2011 campaign. Given the nature of the injuries that derailed him throughout 2012 and 2013, it should come as little surprise that his stolen-base total (eight) was low even with the significantly increased volume of playing time. The Dodgers also moved Kemp to left field, and he made just two appearance in center over the final four months, but the shift to the corner should help reduce the wear and tear on his legs. While his days as a five-category stud appear to be over, Kemp's steady batted ball profile and ability to make consistent hard contact should enable him to be an excellent power source again in 2015, even in Petco Park.

Traded Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez to the Athletics for Derek Norris and Seth Streich.

Norris had a very solid 2014 campaign, upping his batting average from .246 to .270 while also contributing 10 homers. He appeared to tire down the stretch and it is possible that his heavy workload behind the plate down the stretch, necessitated by injuries to other Oakland backstops, affected him as the season went on. After earning an All-Star bid with an exceptional .874 OPS and eight homers in the first half, Norris only managed two homers after the break, with a .659 OPS over his final 188 at-bats. Following a December trade to the Padres, Norris is in line to take on a true starter role next season, though his power numbers may take a hit and it's fair to wonder how he'll hold up to a full year of everyday duty.

Traded Rene Rivera, Burch Smith, and Jake Bauers to the Rays as part of a three-team deal with the Nationals that netted them Wil Myers, Ryan Hanigan, Jose Castillo, and Gerardo Reyes.

The theory of the sophomore slump has mostly been disproven, but Myers tried his best to undo all of that research in 2014. His season was cut short by an injury after he collided with Desmond Jennings in the outfield, but he was not exactly setting the world on fire before the injury. He spent most of the season chasing pitches up and chasing ones away while trying to hit everything 500 feet. Most of his plate appearances resembled those of someone who had done little homework and was just relying on natural talent. He admitted later in the season that perhaps he took too much for granted after his successful minor league career and AL Rookie of the Year campaign in 2013. Hopefully a re-dedication to his career will get him back to the guy we saw in 2013 because those skills are all there.

Traded Jace Peterson, Max Fried, Dustin Peterson, and Mallex Smith to the Braves for Justin Upton and Aaron Northcraft.

Traded Ryan Hanigan to Red Sox for Will Middlebrooks.

All of the trades above occurred over three days in mid-December and sent a message to the league that the Padres are ready to win now. Preller utilized San Diego's stockpile of prospects to bolster its lineup with proven major league talent. The new outfield combination of Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Matt Kemp gives the Padres a much needed injection of power into the lineup. Upton clocked 29 home runs in 2014 with the Braves, but set a career-high in strikeouts, fanning 171 times. Kemp managed to stay healthy in 2014 after injuries marred his 2012 and 2013 campaigns. The Padres dealt a lot of prospects and young big-league level talent, headlined by Yasmani Grandal and Max Fried, to net these players. However, they didn't have to part ways with too many of the organization's blue chip prospects.

Signed James Shields (Royals) to a four-year, $75 million deal that includes a mutual option for a fifth year.

After declining a $15.3 qualifying offer from the Royals, Shields became one of the best arms available on the open market. Shields was deciding between the Cubs, who now have his former skipper, Joe Maddon, as their manager, and the Padres. Ultimately, Shields decided he wanted to stay close to his family and that the moves the Padres had made would allow them to be competitive now and in the years ahead. He adds a veteran presence and a high level of consistency to the San Diego rotation. An added bonus for Shields is that he'll be playing in one most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball.

Traded Johnny Barbato to the Yankees for Shawn Kelley.

Kelley's peripherals suggest that he was the victim of poor luck last season, as his xFIP (3.10) was nearly a run-and-a-half below his 4.53 ERA. For the second straight season, Kelley struck out at least 30.0% of the batters that he faced, but the aforementioned bad luck came in the form of a 67.8% LOB% (career 75.2%). Kelley operates with a fastball-slider combo, while he used the latter offering a career-high 57.7% clip last season, which may lead to some wear and tear on his elbow if the increased usage pattern continues. Traded to the Padres in December, Kelley should benefit from the pitcher-friendly confines of his new home park while working in a late-inning role for San Diego.

Traded Seth Smith to the Mariners for Brandon Maurer.

The two moves above netted some right-handed depth in the Padres' bullpen. Maurer has had his share of struggles at the major league level, but the change in scenery could be just what the 24-year-old flamethrower needs. Kelley is a serviceable arm to have in the bullpen as well, and his 2014 ERA was inflated by an unlucky .337 BABIP.

Signed free agent pitcher Brandon Morrow (Blue Jays) to a one-year deal.

Morrow was a favorite of fantasy gamers who use advanced numbers to scout talent. Back in 2010-11, Morrow had a 4.62 ERA in 326 innings, but his 3.42 FIP and incredible 27 percent strikeout rate hinted at substantial upside. The payoff came in the form of a 2.96 ERA in 2012, but what happened to the supporting skills? The strikeout rate tumbled to 21 percent, and Morrow's biggest issue, the injury bug, remained ever-present. A strained oblique limited him to just 125 innings during the breakout season, and a rash of injury-riddled seasons have continued through 2014. The skills fade from 2012 has continued and has been accompanied by a complete implosion of his value thanks to a 5.65 ERA in just 88 innings the last two seasons. The question is whether the skills are actually gone or if it is just the constant stream of injuries. It's not crazy to blame it on the injuries, but will they ever go away? Make Morrow show you something before investing.

Declined to tender shortstop Everth Cabrera a contract.

Projected Lineup (vs. RHP/LHP)

1. Jedd Gyorko, 2B
2. Matt Kemp, RF
3. Justin Upton, LF
4. Wil Myers, CF
5. Yonder Alonso, 1B
6. Derek Norris, C
7. Yangervis Solarte, 3B
8. Clint Barmes, SS

There are a lot of new pieces for manager Bud Black to tinker with in this lineup. After last season's offensive woes (30th in the league in runs scored with 535, 38 fewer than the 29th place Braves), a lineup overhaul was in order. A.J. Preller delivered with an all-new outfield and a new backstop. The outfield combo of Kemp, Myers, and Upton will have to adjust to their new pitcher-friendly home, but they still represent a marked improvement over 2014's group of Seth Smith, Cameron Maybin, and Will Venable. Players like Will Middlebrooks and Alexi Amarista will likely get a fair amount of at-bats as well. Regardless, this lineup is a major upgrade from seasons past.

Projected Rotation

1. James Shields
2. Andrew Cashner
3. Tyson Ross
4. Ian Kennedy
5. Brandon Morrow

San Diego's rotation was its biggest strength in 2014, even with Cashner missing time with two DL stints, and it has gotten even better with the addition of Shields. The Padres now have a proven and durable No. 1 starter in their rotation to go with rising stars like Cashner and Tyson Ross. The fifth spot in the rotation is a bit up in the air heading into spring training, with Morrow, Odrisamer Despaigne, Matt Wisler, and Robbie Erlin all vying for that role. San Diego brought Josh Johnson back on a one-year, incentive-laden contract after he missed all of 2014 due to elbow issues that resulted in him undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Johnson hasn't had any setbacks, but isn't expected to be pitching in the major leagues until midseason.

Closer The Padres inked the then 36-year-old Joaquin Benoit to a two-year, $15.5 million contract in December of 2013, seemingly anointing him the closer-in-waiting in case injury struck Huston Street for a fifth season in a row. However, Street proceeded to reel off save after save, all the while sidestepping the disabled list and containing Benoit as merely a setup man. Following the sudden post All-Star break trade of Street to the Angels, Benoit finally nabbed closing duties, which he held onto for just more than a month before a sore right shoulder induced a three-week absence beginning Aug. 31. In his stead, Kevin Quackenbush fared well -converting six saves in seven tries - but Benoit was on point throughout the campaign, recording 11 saves with a 4-2 record, 1.49 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 across 54.1 innings. Consequently, Benoit will enter spring training as the incumbent closer, with Quackenbush breathing down the veteran's neck in case he falters.

Key Bullpen MembersKevin Quackenbush filled in admirably in the closer role while Benoit was on the shelf last season. Still, it seems as though Benoit will remain in the closer's role for the time being. Quackenbush will likely open the year as the primary setup man, with Shawn Kelley and Brandon Maurer also helping bridge the gap in the later innings. Alex Torres struggled with his control last season (5.5 BB/9) but figures to open the year as the team's top lefty setup option, though 25-year-old Frank Garces could push for a higher-leverage role at some point.

Notes of Import, Fantasy or Otherwise

Will the Padres win the Yoan Moncada sweepstakes?

Moncada is the latest Cuban super-prospect that has drawn interest from upwards of a dozen major league teams. The 19-year-old is reportedly expected to sign with a team by Feb. 23. The Padres are in the mix with a number of other teams, including the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers. While Moncada will likely need a year or so in a team's farm system before reaching the show, his all-around talent makes him one of the top prospects in baseball. With all of the other moves that the Padres have made this offseason, Moncada may be commanding a price tag that's out of San Diego's range, but landing him is not out of the question for Padres.

How will Jedd Gyorko and Wil Myers bounce back after disappointing 2014 campaigns?

Even though both of them had extended stints on the DL in 2014, they both had pretty significant drop-offs in production when they were in the lineup. Myers had just 10 fewer at-bats in 2014 than he did in his 2013 AL Rookie of the Year campaign, but his numbers took a significant hit. In 325 at-bats in 2014, Myers had a .222/.294/.320 batting line and just six homers compared to .293/.354/.478 slash line with 13 home runs over 335 at-bats in 2013. Gyorko followed up his 23 home run 2013 season with just 10 home runs (in 400 ABs compared to 486 in 2013) and a paltry .210 batting average. Both players have exhibited the ability to produce at the major league level and are still young enough to fix the holes in their respective games, but they'll need to improve their plate discipline sooner rather than later.

Will all of the offseason moves translate to wins in 2015?

The Padres aggressively addressed their offensive shortcomings this offseason, and the addition of Shields solidifies an already strong starting staff. The improvements to the lineup all but ensure that the Padres won't be the at the bottom of the barrel in terms of offensive production in 2015. They had the fourth-best team ERA in the majors in 2014, and that ranking could have been even better if Cashner wasn't on the shelf for such a large chunk of the season. If Gyorko and Myers can produce at the level they're capable of, and Kemp can stay healthy for the second year in a row, the offense should be an asset rather than a liability, which makes the Padres a very complete team across the board.

Strengths:

The starting rotation, especially 1-through-4, is one of the better staffs in baseball. Ian Kennedy quietly had one of the best seasons of his career in 2014, his first full season in a Padres uniform. He topped 200 innings and 200 strikeouts, and finished with a .42 ERA-FIP differential. Tyson Ross also had a fantastic season in 2014 with a 2.81 and 8.97 K/9 ratio and is poised for another big year in 2015. The back end of the bullpen, headed by Joaquin Benoit and Kevin Quackenbush, is also strong and the team still has some potential impact prospects, namely Matt Wisler and Hunter Renfroe, in the farm system.

Weaknesses:

Overall team defense is one area where the Padres could struggle. Jedd Gyorko finished tied for fifth in the majors for most errors committed by a second baseman with 11 despite playing just 111 games. Justin Upton wasn't brought in for his glove, either. Upton had the most errors among left fielders in all of baseball with eight, and he'll have to adjust to Petco Park's dimensions, and Wil Myers is not an ideal fit in center. Further, San Diego is thin at shortstop. They brought in veteran Clint Barmes to compete with Alexi Amarista, but neither do much in the field or at the dish. The lineup is very right-handed heavy, and similarly, in the bullpen, the Padres are lacking left-handers.

RisingTyson Ross, P - Since landing a starting gig in late July of 2013, Ross has been fantastic, to say the least, posting a 2.84 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 280:95 K:BB in 275.2 innings. During that span, he tallied 32 quality starts among 44 appearances, including 14 in a row in the second half of 2014, and earned the first All-Star bid of his career. Although he was shut down in September due to a flexor strain in his right forearm, the malady has already healed and won't affect his status once spring training commences.

DecliningWill Venable, OF - Expectations were high after Venable recorded a breakout 20-20 season in 2013, but he suffered a back injury late in spring training, and later dealt with a foot injury in May. The results were poor, as he hit just .201/.258/.277 with a 25.1% strikeout rate during the first half of the season. Typical of his body of work prior to last season, Venable was much better against right-handed pitching (.631 OPS) than he was against lefties (.506), and with improved health during the second half, Venable hit .261/.333/.401 after the All-Star break. Already 32 years old, it's reasonable to think that he may be a one-time member of the 20-20 club. He'll be relegated to a fourth outfielder type of role and, barring injuries to one of the new outfielders, won't have much of a fantasy impact this season.

SleeperKevin Quackenbush, P - As mentioned above, Quackenbush was dependable in his first season with the big league club. His value is largely dependent on Benoit's performance in the closer role. However, if the 37-year-old Benoit has a dip in fastball velocity and stops missing bats at the rate he did in 2014 (career-best 30.4% swinging strike percentage), Quackenbush could assume the closer role.

SupersleeperMatt Wisler, P - Wisler started his 2014 campaign at Double-A San Antonio, but needed just six starts to prove that he was ready to move up to Triple-A. In 26 starts between 2013 and 2014 in the Texas League, Wisler carried a 138:33 K:BB with a 2.80 ERA and 1.067 WHIP over 135 innings, and he posted equal or better numbers at each of his previous two full-season stops. The Pacific Coast League brought new challenges, as he became much more susceptible to the long ball in the hitter-friendly parks on the circuit, and was forced to improve his changeup when his slider was ineffective in the dry conditions of El Paso. He still maintained an impressive ability to miss bats for a pitcher his age (7.8 K/9) and his walk rate was still acceptable (2.8 BB/9), but the Padres held off on giving him a taste of big league action late last season despite adding him to the roster in September. Wisler set a new career-high with 146.2 innings last season, making it likely that he'll be on a limit in the 180-inning range in 2015, but he could be the first starter called up to San Diego if he fails to secure a rotation spot during spring training.

Top Prospects

Matt Wisler, P - see above.

Hunter Renfroe, OFRenfroe's 2014 campaign was split nearly evenly between High-A Lake Elsinore and Double-A San Antonio, but his numbers post promotion featured a .660 OPS after he punished Cal League pitching at a .935 clip. One particularly encouraging sign is that Renfroe showed improved plate discipline following the promotion, and it may not be long before he's ready to contribute in San Diego. Although he finished the season as RotoWire's 27th ranked prospect, Renfroe seems to get overlooked by some owners due to his future home park in San Diego. As a right-handed bat with pop to all fields, the cavernous nature of Petco Park won't be as damaging to his production as it is for left-handed hitters. Renfroe and Rymer Liriano appear to be the long-term future at the corner-outfield spots for the Padres, but the additions of Matt Kemp and Justin Upton in the offseason have clouded things a bit.

Austin Hedges, C - Hedges spent all of 2014 at Double-A San Antonio, where questions have surfaced regarding his ability to hit upper level pitching. Just 22, defense has been the calling card for Hedges to this point in his development, and he may continue advancing through the San Diego system even after posting a sub-.600 OPS in the Texas League last season. While he will carry plenty of value to the Padres regardless of his offensive ceiling, owners hoping to lock up a quality bat at a scarce position in dynasty leagues may want to look elsewhere. At his peak, Hedges could have enough power to push double-digit home runs annually, but it may come with a low average. He has all of the tools to be a premier defensive player upon arrival, which could afford him more regular playing time than his bat is actually ready for. Hedges will likely begin 2015 at Triple-A El Paso, but he should get his first look in the big leagues before the end of the season.

Rymer Liriano, OF - Liriano made his debut in the big leagues as a 23-year-old in August, following a 2013 campaign that was completely erased by Tommy John surgery. Prior to his arrival to San Diego, the Padres gave Liriano more than three months at Double-A, where his plate discipline was largely unchanged from his pre-surgery numbers at the level, but he showed an uptick in power, swatting 14 homers and slugging .442 over 415 plate appearances after hitting just three homers in 206 plate appearances with San Antonio in 2012. He also showed an ability to contribute as a basestealer, going 17-for-24 against Double-A batteries. Liriano appeared to be overmatched in his first look against big-league pitching, as he struck out at a 32.2% clip and pounded balls into the ground at an alarming rate, even with most of his starts coming against left-handers. Liriano appears destined to open 2015 at Triple-A, with Matt Kemp and Justin Upton brought in to fill the corner spots during the offseason.

Cory Spangenberg, 2B - Spangenberg sustained a concussion early on last year and required more than two months to receive full clearance for a return to the lineup at Double-A San Antonio. Upholding his reputation as a contact hitter and basestealing threat, he proceeded to contribute a .331/.365/.470 line and 14 swipes (in 23 attempts) across 281 at-bats at the affiliate, earning a promotion to the Padres upon roster expansion in September. The presence of Yangervis Solarte limited Spangenberg to 65 plate appearances during the season's final month, but the infield prospect wasn't intimidated in his first trial against major league pitching, posting a formidable .290/.313/.452 slash line, two home runs, nine RBI, seven runs scored and four steals (in six attempts). With Will Middlebrooks coming over from Boston in a trade in December, Spangenberg will face additional competition for the starting third base job as he enters his age-25 season.