MLB Points Leagues: How to Survive Another Flurry of Pitcher Injuries

Bad news has come in waves regarding the health of starting pitchers this season. Throughout spring training and into the first few weeks of the season, it seemed that we were losing a prominent fantasy starter on nearly a daily basis. We got a brief break, but in just the last week Zac Gallen, Tyler Wells, John Means, Cristian Javier, Robert Gasser, Clarke Schmidt, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and others have landed on the injured list with injuries of varying severities. That's put stress back on the starting pitcher market, and also makes this the perfect time to check in on strong performers in May that should be available in many league formats.

We'll break things down into two potential categories of pitchers, the first being boring veteran arms that have out-performed expectations. We may not be able to rely on them in the long term, but they're getting the job done now and can be plugged in immediately to fill in any gaps on your roster. The latter are potentially better long-term options, but may require some patience due to either role or inconsistent performance in the short term.

Options for Immediate Production

Bailey Falter 16.9 fantasy points per start in May (28% rostered CBS, 14% Yahoo)

Looking at the most traditional methods of pitcher evaluation would undoubtedly lead to the conclusion that Falter is overperforming and destined for some unpleasant correction over the course of the season. That includes a 15.3 percent strikeout rate, a 4.72 xERA and a 4.86 SIERA compared to a 3.22 ERA. On the other hand, there's the case to be made that his flyball-heavy profile is the perfect fit for the current offensive environment that depresses home runs. Specifically, Falter has leaned into allowing opposing batters to lift the ball by pitching up in the zone more often, which has translated to a 47.9 flyball percent and most importantly a 13 percent infield flyball rate. There will inevitably be pullback, a .197 BABIP against is one area to look, but it may not be as severe as many anticipate. For leagues that reward quality starts, Falter makes up for some of his lack of strikeouts with his ability to pitch deep into games. Across his five starts in May, he completed seven innings on two occasions and at least six innings four times.

Ben Lively 16.1 fantasy points per start in May (56% rostered CBS, 47% Yahoo)

Lively can be grouped together with Falter in some ways due to his 49.6 percent flyball rate and a subpar ability to limit hard contact. The rest of his profile is a mixed bag. The positive is a relatively strong 23.3 percent strikeout rate and 15.8 percent K-BB%. The negative has been his inability to work deep into starts, as he has only three quality starts in nine appearances overall this season.  

Michael Lorenzen 10.3 fantasy points per start in May (40% CBS, 23% Yahoo)

There's nothing particularly compelling about Lorenzen's skills, but he's a perfect fit for points formats. Even after signing late in free agency, Lorenzen has worked at least six innings in all nine of his starts while scoring double-digit fantasy points on seven occasions. We've seen Lorenzen produce at similar levels in each of the past few campaigns only to eventually fall off, so this isn't to say he's a player that will remain on your roster forever. But, it still has to be acknowledged that he's shown a good ability to be a stop-gap option and can bridge a gap in fantasy rosters in the short term.  

Long-Term Adds

Ryan Weathers 18.3 fantasy points per start (54% rostered CBS, 35% Yahoo)

The case for Weathers reads far more like a traditional breakout pitcher. His velocity, swinging strike rate and strikeout rate are all up considerably as compared to the majority of his big-league career. His walk rate has also improved greatly, primarily due to hitters expanding the strike zone rather than Weathers living in the zone more. That all points to a pitcher worth believing in for the rest of the season and beyond. A poor start against the Rangers on Saturday has caused some fantasy managers to drop Weathers on Yahoo, which could present the last opportunity to add him until draft season 2025.

Ben Brown  (60% rostered CBS, 48% Yahoo)

When healthy, the Cubs have too many starters, which may mean that it takes some time for Brown to pay off for fantasy managers. He has shown skills worth waiting for, though. Specifically, he's maintained a 29.4 percent strikeout rate and 19.9 K-BB% as a starter this season while limiting opposing hitters to a .178 batting average.

That's not to say his profile is flawless. He's averaged a mediocre 10.7 fantasy points per start and hasn't worked deep into games primarily due to a 9.9 percent walk rate as a starter. Brown's immediate role in the rotation is also in question as Jordan Wicks is nearing a return from the injured list.

Hunter Brown (55% CBS, 45% Yahoo)

Only a couple months into the season, and we've seen both good and very bad from Brown. Through his first six starts of the season, he had given up 25 earned runs across 23 innings and had arguably the worst start of the year April 11 when he earned -24 points. It would be a stretch to say he's looked like a breakout pitcher since his miserable beginning to the season, but his production has at least been steady. In his last five starts, he's tallied no fewer than 10.5 fantasy points and he's had three starts in between 12.5 and 15.5 points. That's good enough to be rostered in most points formats.

There are also fewer questions about Brown's role. He was in danger of landing in the bullpen upon Jose Urquidy's activation from the injured list, but Urquidy has since suffered another serious elbow injury to end his season. Meanwhile, Cristian Javier is undergoing Tommy John surgery, meaning Brown should have the chance to continue as a starter barring some outside additions to the roster by Houston.