MLB: Jeff Zimmerman's Lessons Learned in 2021

MLB: Jeff Zimmerman's Lessons Learned in 2021

Balancing Categories: Batting Average and Home Run Focus

Before the season even reached the All-Star break, I knew I would need to put more emphasis on batting average and home runs next year, especially in deeper formats. In my five 15-team NFBC FAAB leagues, my average finish will be around sixth for homers and seventh with batting average. On the other hand, my Runs will finish around third place and RBI at about fourth. 

While some of the discrepancies might be from random variation, most of it is based on my style of play. I attempt to grind out every possible at-bat, especially during the season. I focus on hitters moving up in the lineup along with those having five- versus seven-game weeks. Of the 435 teams in TGFBI, I have the fourth highest at-bat total. In the Main Event, I rank second out of 645 teams. And of the 2,388 teams in the RotoWire Online Champion, one of my teams ranks first, with over 200 more at-bats than the second place team. I used the extra playing time to push up my Run and RBI totals way ahead of the other two values. 

Since I use Standing Gains Points to value hitters, there are couple of options open to me for adding more of the two stats. I could decrease the weighting of Runs and RBI, making the other categories more important. The other option is just completely remove the RBI and Run inputs and double how much emphasis

Balancing Categories: Batting Average and Home Run Focus

Before the season even reached the All-Star break, I knew I would need to put more emphasis on batting average and home runs next year, especially in deeper formats. In my five 15-team NFBC FAAB leagues, my average finish will be around sixth for homers and seventh with batting average. On the other hand, my Runs will finish around third place and RBI at about fourth. 

While some of the discrepancies might be from random variation, most of it is based on my style of play. I attempt to grind out every possible at-bat, especially during the season. I focus on hitters moving up in the lineup along with those having five- versus seven-game weeks. Of the 435 teams in TGFBI, I have the fourth highest at-bat total. In the Main Event, I rank second out of 645 teams. And of the 2,388 teams in the RotoWire Online Champion, one of my teams ranks first, with over 200 more at-bats than the second place team. I used the extra playing time to push up my Run and RBI totals way ahead of the other two values. 

Since I use Standing Gains Points to value hitters, there are couple of options open to me for adding more of the two stats. I could decrease the weighting of Runs and RBI, making the other categories more important. The other option is just completely remove the RBI and Run inputs and double how much emphasis I put on AVG and HR values. 

Not everyone has the same issue that I have. They will have some areas they are good at and areas they need to work on. Everyone should look into all their leagues and see if they were deficient in any area. One common issue is the balance between pitching and hitting categories. Another might be the lack of stolen bases or saves. When the season ends and before all the league's results are scraped from the internet, I'd recommend spending an hour or so looking into the final results and thinking about how to incorporate possible improvement into your 2022 prep.  

Never Give Up

While I've never quit making moves in a league, I may decrease the time on ones in which I'm no longer in contention. There is only so much time to go around, so I hope to save some time for my closer leagues. My Second Chance league was one such league. In mid-August, I was 20 points out of second place (top-2 teams cash) with a middling pitching staff and a pathetic offense. 

The next week, I told my co-owner Tanner Bell that I might not spend as much time on it since all is lost. He said I should take a look at the standings.

The gap had shrunk from 20 points to just eight with first place just nine points away. As of right now, the top two spots are still up for grabs and I'm one of the three.

I was lacking hope, but I shouldn't have been. Going back to the first image, look at the 7.5-point move Dave Taylor made. Since these were Second Chance leagues, the potential existed for major moves up and down. By doubling the 7.5-points, I should have known that I could quickly make up a 15-point gap. The key is to check on the biggest movers and know that similar moves are still possible. 

Patience with my Drops

While I should held on to first place in my TGFBI league and a place in the top 15 overall, some early-season drops came back to haunt me. 

The first was dropping Tyler O'Neill for Jay Bruce. 

The other was when I dropped Robbie Ray for Josh Fleming.

At this point, O'Neill is the 28th ranked hitter and Ray is the sixth ranked pitcher

Going into drafts, I thought both were good late values, but early struggles let me sour too fast. Both the players were dealing with early injuries (O'Neill - groin, Ray - elbow). After returning to their teams, both were struggling in April. Ray just had a 7.9 K/9 with a 3.6 BB/9 and 1.6 HR/9. For O'Neill, he was showing no plate discipline (2% BB%, 38% K%). 

I should have more patience with the players I spent all offseason studying, especially the ones who are coming off an injury. I should at least give the player a month before moving on. My patience level might need to be even longer (a study for this offseason), but a couple weeks after coming back from an injury is not long enough. 

Satisfying the Itch to Draft with Best Balls

This past pre-season was the first year I drafted several best balls with the intent to cash. I used to donate my minimal entry fee to the winners so I could practice some draft software or different strategies. Instead this year, I decided to focus on trying to place.

While my performance was OK (I'll make some money), the biggest benefit of these drafts was they fulfilled my itch to draft a team. Drafting a team isn't the worst thing but then I have to maintain it during the season. With best balls, once the draft is over, there is no need to worry about the league. With price points from $5 to a few hundred dollars, there is one available for anyone's budget. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Jeff is a former RotoWire contributor. He wrote analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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