This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Divisional Series Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, October 9
- Year-to-Date Record: 171-173-1
- Prior Article: 3-1 (+1.95 units)
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MLB Postseason Betting Tips
PITCHING IMPACT
A lower run-scoring environment means you want to focus on under run totals, pitcher hits allowed and over strikeouts. Avoid laying -1.5 runs unless it is an extreme situation.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game in the regular season. In the postseason it goes down as teams have a day off between games. Bullpens are critical to postseason success and should be heavily taken into consideration.
HITTER PROPS
Be careful with hitter props because every team is throwing their best pitchers. We are dealing with some of the best MLB teams. I will look only at home run + runs + RBI props on a top-four hitter in the playoffs.
Before placing any wagers on the best online sportsbooks make sure you are making informed bets by using the latest MLB odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Cleveland Guardians 
at Detroit Tigers 
Alex Cobb is on the mound for the Guardians while the Tigers roll with a bullpen approach going with left-hander Brant Hurter. Cobb was limited to just three starts during the regular season due to injury but posted a 2.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 10:3 K:BB ratio over 16.1 innings. The day off in between Game 2 and Game 3 gives the Tigers a huge edge with how they deploy pitching.
The Guardians have been a much better team at home (51-31 record and 4.6 runs per game) versus on the road (42-39 record and 4.1 runs per game) but we are getting this game at about even-money.
If you look at the results of the first two games (7-0 and 3-0), along with the season series, there have been a lot of low-scoring outcomes. Both teams are trending heavily on the unders in these splits. The Guardians are 20-6-4 to the under in their last 30 on the road and the Tigers are 21-8-1 to the under in their last 30 home games.
MLB Picks for Guardians at Tigers
- Guardians/Tigers Under 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (+100 at BetMGM)
Philadelphia Phillies 
at New York Mets 
The Mets are leading the series 2-1 and have a chance to close it out at home in Game 4. The Mets have a huge edge in the bullpen today as most of their arms got rest in Game 3, including closer Edwin Diaz.
Something to consider when looking at the later games in a series, these are the No. 3 and No. 4 pitchers for their respective teams, but oddsmakers are genuinely just looking at how many runs were scored in the previous game to set the totals.
I was on the over in Game 3 and the Mets got there, but the Phillies only put up two, which killed my "Both Teams Over 3 Runs" play.
Ranger Suarez has not been good since June 25 (58.1 innings, 6.17 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9) and the Mets have scored at least four runs in seven out of their last 10, including four games in a row.
Jose Quintana faced the Phillies three times this season with a combined 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He is also hot in his last six starts with a 0.74 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
The Mets are hot and could be a team of destiny. I like them to close out the series today at home and move on to the National League Championship Series (NLCS).
MLB Picks for Phillies at Mets
- Mets Over 3.5 Runs F5 for 1 Unit (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mets ML for 1 Unit (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Yankees 
at Kansas City Royals 
Clarke Schmidt is a tough pitcher to handicap because he has terrible home splits but great road splits. Seth Lugo has been solid in his last six starts with a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He threw a gem against the Yankees on September 10, striking out 10 batters and allowing zero walks and zero earned runs over seven innings.
The Royals have been one of the best home teams in baseball, but the Yankees are very strong on the road (50-31). Kansas City is 9-2 to the under in their last 11 home games and 15-5 in their last 20 overall.
I think both starting pitchers are better than the public is giving them credit for, which will lead to a lower-scoring game through the first five or six innings, but I am taking the full game total for insurance.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Royals
- Yankees/Royals Under 8.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-130 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Dodgers 
at San Diego Padres 
All three games in this series have flown over the totals with 11, 12 and 12 runs scored. The Padres also put up four and five runs in both games against the Braves. The Dodgers are going with a bullpen game and starting Landon Knack while the Padres are going with Dylan Cease on three days' rest.
I am going to stick with the Padres bats continuing to be hot, especially against this awful Dodgers bullpen.
MLB Picks for Dodgers at Padres
- Padres Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+134 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Guardians/Tigers Under 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (+100 at BetMGM)
- Mets Over 3.5 Runs F5 for 1 Unit (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mets ML for 1 Unit (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Yankees/Royals Under 8.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-130 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Padres Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+134 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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