This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Last Monday, homers were being hit with gusto during the Derby. There will be homers hit this Monday, but it will be different. More difficult for the hitters, of course, but also dispersed across the country. There are nine games on the DFS slate. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. EDT. Here are my MLB DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. LAA ($8,600): Miller has proven to be a different pitcher at home. He has a 2.96 ERA in Seattle in his career, but that includes a 2.10 ERA at home this season. The Angels have fallen into the bottom five in runs scored, and until Mike Trout returns it feels likely they will stay there.
Michael Lorenzen, TEX vs. CWS ($8,100): Lorenzen is a thoroughly mediocre pitcher, and his 3.52 ERA flatters him. Strikeouts and walks are both an issue for the veteran righty. That being said, the Rays and Marlins both play outside this slate of games, and the White Sox are a clear matchup to target. They are last in runs scored and team OPS.
Tobias Myers, MIL at CHC ($7,900): Rookie pitcher Myers has been unexpectedly important to the Brewers. He has a 3.13 ERA overall, but a 2.56 ERA on the road. Myers also has an 1.79 ERA over his last seven starts, and that includes a tough outing at Coors Field. That's fair! The Cubs are middling in terms of runs scored, and crucially they don't play in baseball's best hitter's park, so Myers could keep buoying the Brewers' rotation.
Top Targets
The red-hot Trea Turner ($4,300) has an 1.267 OPS over the last three weeks. While his .966 OPS versus lefties on the season stands out, his .915 OPS versus his fellow righties is still quite impressive. Bailey Ober has shown no particular preference for facing righties or lefties, but he has allowed 1.44 home runs per nine innings in his career, and he's given up 1.6 homers per nine at home this season.
Dealing with a sore hand that kept him out of the All-Star Game, Jose Altuve ($3,700) has been hitting a lot of singles recently, but he has been hitting. That's to be expected from a guy with a career .307 average. The Venezuelan has 14 homers and 15 stolen bases, and he has an .849 OPS versus lefties. While Hogan Harris' ERA has dropped from 7.14 last season to 3.40 this season, his FIP has only dropped from 5.01 to 4.90, so this matchup is still favorable.
Bargain Bats
To the extent that doubles are eye-popping, the fact that JJ Bleday ($3,100), nobody's idea of an elite hitter, has 28 of them in 99 games is notable. The southpaw also has four triples and 12 stolen bases. Notably, he has an .823 OPS at home, making hay in a pitcher's park. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti strikes out a lot of batters, but he still has a 5.63 ERA through 17 starts, and lefties have hit .277 against him.
Since joining the Giants, Michael Conforto ($2,700) has a .739 OPS versus righties. However, he also has a .711 OPS on the road, not proving to be the biggest fan of playing in San Francisco. Expectation is that the Dodgers will start River Ryan, who will be making his MLB debut. The 25-year-old has made all of seven starts above the Double-A level.
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox at Rockies (Austin Gomber): Tyler O'Neill ($4,100), Ceddanne Rafaela ($3,300), Rob Refsnyder ($3,100)
The Red Sox get to enjoy kicking off the work week with a series at Coors Field. While Gomber has a 3.54 ERA at home, compared to a 5.61 ERA on the road, since 2022 he has a 5.52 ERA at Coors. Also, the fact he's capable of putting a 5.61 road ERA up is also not a great sign for him. Gomber is a southpaw, and righties have hit .287 against him over the last three season, so this is a three-righty stack.
O'Neill has had his usual issue staying healthy, but this year he has been productive, especially on the power front. The former Cardinal has slugged .510 with 18 homers in 71 games, and on the year he has an 1.012 OPS on the road. Rafaela won't walk his way on base, but he has 11 homers and 13 stolen bases, plus four triples. The shortstop may lack on the OBP front, but he's slugged .443 on the road. Refsnyder is serviceable against righties and at home, but he's popped versus lefties and on the road. Specifically, he has a .906 OPS against southpaws and a .957 OPS away from Boston.
Cincinnati at Atlanta (Dylan Dodd): Spencer Steer ($3,800), Jonathan India ($3,200), Rece Hinds ($3,500)
Max Fried has hit the IL, and now Dodd is line to start Monday. He has been a regular starter down in Triple-A, and he made seven starts for Atlanta in 2023. The problem for his club is that in those seven starts he posted a 7.60 ERA. Even down in Triple-A this season he posted a 4.99 ERA prior to being called up. Atlanta may have to turn to the lefty Monday, but even in the minors he has issues with homers, so this is a stack worth betting on.
Steer has 15 homers and 15 stolen bases. Thus far in his career facing lefties has been a big part of his success, as he has an .889 OPS in those matchups. Hinds rested Sunday after his torrid start to his MLB run gave way to one hit over three games. That being said, the Reds use a lot of lefties, and Hinds has slashed .353/.389/.971 in nine MLB contests. India is having his best season since winning NL Rookie of the Year, having batted .275 with 21 doubles, eight homers and nine swiped bags. He's not slowing down either, as he has an .869 OPS over the last three weeks.
Just in case Dodd doesn't end up getting the start, and somebody much better (or a bit better but right-handed) gets the nod, here's a brief replacement stack. Blake Snell's two starts since returning from rehabbing in Triple-A have gone well, but he has a 6.31 ERA on the season, a 13.50 ERA on the road, and righties have hit .261 against him on the year. Thus, Will Smith ($3,600), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,300), and Andy Pages ($2,700) are a viable trio.
