This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
ALCS/NLCS Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, October 18
- Year-to-Date Record: 180-178
- Prior Article: 2-0 ( +0.13 units)
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MLB Postseason Betting Tips
PITCHING IMPACT
A lower run-scoring environment means you want to focus on under run totals, pitcher hits allowed and over strikeouts. Avoid laying -1.5 runs unless it is an extreme situation.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game in the regular season. In the postseason it goes down as teams have a day off between games. Bullpens are critical to postseason success and should be heavily taken into consideration.
HITTER PROPS
Be careful with hitter props because every team is throwing their best pitchers. We are dealing with some of the best MLB teams. I will look only at home run + runs + RBI props on a top-four hitter in the playoffs.
Don't place any bets on the best online sportsbooks without first knowing what the latest MLB odds are.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
New York Yankees 
at Cleveland Guardians 
In one of the most exciting playoff games in recent memory, the Guardians came back last night to bring this series to 2-1 with a Jhonkensy Noel two-run pinch-hit home run in the 10th inning to beat the Yankees 7-5. The Guardians have left the Yankees a bit shellshocked and I think it carries over to Game 4.
Both starting pitchers have not pitched well recently and there is already money on the over with the total moving from 7.5 to 8.0.
Luis Gil has not pitched since September 28th. He has a 5.03 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP, but the scary stats are his 5.0 BB/9 and 2.1 HR/9 in his last seven starts.
Gavin Williams is 3-10 on the season with a 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He has not pitched since September 22nd.
The Guardians used seven relief pitchers in Thursday's game, but they were all within 10-18 pitches, so some of the arms will be ready tonight. The Yankees used six relief pitchers – three threw at least 20 pitches and three pitched fewer than nine, so their pen is a little more rested.
Game 4 sets up to be a sequel of Game 3 but with short hooks on both starting pitchers. Both teams will then use an all-hands-on-deck strategy with the bullpens. The run totals in the series have been 7.0, 9.0 and 12.0, so I am surprised this total is not 8.5 runs. The Guardians are a different team at home and I lean on them tonight to tie the series up at 2-2.
The total on this game is already at 8.0 in most spots at even-money. You can grab it at 7.5 around -120 odds.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Guardians
- Yankees/Guardians Over 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-120 at BetMGM)
- Guardians ML for 1 Unit (+205 at BetMGM +105)
Los Angeles Dodgers 
at New York Mets 
The Dodgers offense is cruising right now. They have scored 54 runs in nine games (six runs per game). The results in this series have been hard to predict with scores of 9-0, 7-3, 8-0 and 10-2. The Dodgers crushed the Mets in their three wins.
I thought the Mets would get to Jack Flaherty in Game 1, but instead, he pitched a gem, throwing seven scoreless innings. The Mets are going with David Peterson to start and they have an exhausted bullpen.
I do not want to go against this Mets team at home only because when you count them out, they rise to the occasion, so I will go with the Dodgers to go over their team total.
MLB Picks for Dodgers at Mets
- Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+114 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Yankees/Guardians Over 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-120 at BetMGM)
- Guardians ML for 1 Unit (+105 at BetMGM)
- Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+114 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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