This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Monday, July 1
Happy July 1! The turn to a month finds us with a very small set of games with only three to choose from that are staggered throughout the day starting at 3:07 p.m. EST. The good news? We get a Coors Field game in the middle of the summer. Let's see what looks good.
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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet
Houston Astros -1.5 Runs +115 (BetMGM)
I'm not sure people realize how good Hunter Brown has been recently as his overall numbers 4.37 ERA, 1.37 WHIP look merely league-average. However, he's been electric as of late with a 1.16 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP during the month of June. Brown has struck out 36 in 31 innings over that time span and the Blue Jays are merely league-average (.308 wOBA) against opposing right-handed pitching. Yariel Rodriguez has struggled in limited work this season (5.94 ERA, 1.92 WHIP in 16.2 innings) and the Astros have the sixth-best wOBA against right-handed pitching with a .327 mark. This is the type of game where the wager is safely won in the first five innings.
MLB Pick for Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
Houston Astros -1.5 Runs +115 (BetMGM)
New York Mets at Washington Nationals Best Bet
Lane Thomas Over 1.5 Bases +135 (DraftKings)
This prop is as low as +115 on other sites so this is definitely a good value. On the surface, David Peterson's 3.67 ERA looks good, but a 1.48 WHIP and while it's been a small sample, his LOB percentage (80.4) would be a career high as would his .296 BABIP. This in addition to his 7.47 road ERA last season (53 innings) suggests that regression could easily be coming today. Thomas is only hitting .239 this season, but his numbers against southpaws (.322 batting average, .947 OPS) have been excellent. He has seen Peterson before going 1-for-2 (a double) with two walks, one RBI and a stolen base. I would also sprinkle a little on Thomas' anytime home run odds, which can be found at FanDuel for +630 (as low as +550 on other sites).
MLB Pick for New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Lane Thomas Over 1.5 Bases +135 (DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Best Bets
Rhys Hoskins Anytime Home Run +300 (DraftKings), Willy Adames Anytime Home Run +310 (Caesars)
I had some good success with this strategy last season, taking multiple players and their anytime home run odds. This makes for a huge ceiling if the 2-3 players you take hit and it only takes one of them to get overall odds much better than +100. Austin Gomber has been difficult to predict at home; he has a 3.57 ERA at home this season but had a 7.05 mark last season. He's given up seven home runs in six starts this season and these wagers could hit facing the Colorado relievers once Gomber leaves the game. Hoskins and Adames are 1-2 on the team for home runs and with an over/under of 11.5 with the Brewers favored, it's fair to expect them to score around six runs.
MLB Picks for Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies
Rhys Hoskins Anytime Home Run +300 (DraftKings), Willy Adames Anytime Home Run +310 (Caesars)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
Houston Astros -1.5 Runs +115 (BetMGM)
Lane Thomas Over 1.5 Bases +135 (DraftKings)
Rhys Hoskins Anytime Home Run +300 (DraftKings), Willy Adames Anytime Home Run +310 (Caesars)
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