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MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Sunday, July 14
Happy All-Star Break and a Happy Bastille Day to those who celebrate! Let's try for a winner before the four-day respite.
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Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
Two playoff aspirants face off here with one of them, the Twins, on a bit of an offensive roll lately. Minnesota carries a league-best +143 wRC+ over the last 30 days. I ignored Carlos Correa in my entire voluminous Fantasy Baseball portfolio because "reasons." OK, I really did have a reason, I virtually always wanted stolen base potential from my MI's at his mid-to-late draft area. My bad, he has hit .344 with eight homers and a .447 wOBA over the last 30 days and triple slashed an excellent 308/.377/.520 on the season. That is good for a 152 wRC+. He is also still somehow just 29 years old. Byron Buxton, another seemingly "old" and injured guy has stayed healthy in 2024 and caught fire in the past month as well with a .492 wOBA and 226 wRC+. Another hot Twin is Jose Miranda, who recently tied an MLB record with hits in 12 straight at-bats. The one-time interesting prospect has gotten regular run lately even when Royce Lewis – currently on the IL – was playing and has raked with a .476 wOBA and just a 9.6-percent K rate over the last 30 days.
What has not worked at times for the Twins? Shaky starting pitching. Chris Paddack takes the ball today and his return from Tommy John surgery in 2024 has gotten a bit choppy. He carries a 5.18 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, though his 4.12 SIERA suggests more of a league-average performance. His average fastball velo of 93.4 has not dipped much from his career 94.1 level but his changeup has dipped 1.3 mph and gone from his most effective pitch early in his career to a negative-value offering. He still does issue free passes at a 5.5-percent BB rate, but his 20.1 percent is a career low.
The Giants counter with Blake Snell, another ex-Padre fighting through injuries and inconsistency in 2024. The reigning NL Cy Young winner signed late this spring and has battled rust and ailments all year. He has thrown to a 7.85 ERA in just 28.1 IP, though 4.38 in both xERA and SIERA suggest Snell has not pitched quite that poorly. He looked good in his first start back off his latest IL trip with five shutout innings on Tuesday with one hit and three walks to go with three Ks. Snell walks the yard even in his ace years, he just also puts up big K numbers to go with it. He sits at 24.8-percent K rate this season, well off his 29.5-percent career mark.
The Giants' offense does not inspire much fear, though at 104 wRC+ overall and 108 at home they do hit a bit better than league average. Heliot Ramos has led the way, just as everyone expected in the preseason. I kid, of course. The one-time top-shelf prospect hit poorly in his first couple shots in The Show, but he has exploded in 2024 since his early May call-up to the tune of 14 homers, .304/.373/.537 and an All-Star nod. This is not a particularly scary lineup as LaMonte Wade and his .428 OBP versus righties is likely the next biggest threat, and even that comes with just three homers in 180 PA.
The Pick
Over 4.5 F5, +105
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I like the Twins' bats much better in general, though their platoon-heavy lineup approach may take out some or all of Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Max Kepler versuss the lefty Snell, at least through the part of the game that impacts this wager. Then again, neither Correa didn't play last night and Miranda went on the IL, so the lineup could include anyone. The Twins have a deep roster. It all works well, as the Twins carry a 125 wRC+ versus lefties, second best in MLB. I really do not trust Paddack, though, especially on the road where he has put up a ghastly 7.25 ERA and 1.5 WHIP.
I will go with the F5 Over here. This matchup pits the two most profitable F5 Over teams in baseball as the Giants have gone 62-32 with a 26.2-percent ROI as per VSiN, while the Twins sit at 58-36 and 17.7-percent ROI. The Twins are even better versus lefties at 17-8, 29.1-percent ROI.
Bonus Observation that Is Not Quite a Pick: The Marlins are impossibly bad versus lefties
The Miami Un-sound Machine faces southpaw Nick Lodolo today and they have a league-worst 68 wRC+ vs lefties thus far. Further they have gone just 5-24-3 on the F5 moneyline versus lefties for a -54.7-percent ROI. I just wanted to note it since it is tough to ignore the Marlins any time they are in this spot, but I rarely play a considerable favorite in MLB and the Reds opened at -175. Plus, the Reds also face a lefty (Trevor Rogers), and their 97 wRC+ and an F5 moneyline record of 12-12-5, -3.3-percent ROI define the word "meh" versus southpaws. But very little of that includes the scorching-hot Rece Hinds.
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