In Some Depth: Lineup Review

In Some Depth: Lineup Review

This article is part of our In Some Depth series.

Another week, another In Some Depth. But with the season rapidly reaching its conclusion, I figured your fantasy baseball team probably would not benefit from whatever scrub might be next in line for starts at second base in City X or which platoon of Quad-A right fielders will share time during the final days for Team Y. This week, I took a more holistic look at the number of lineups each team used this season (through Sunday, September 14. There has been a lot of lineup turnover over the past week that has been more a function of roster expansion than actual roster management). On average, AL teams used more lineups than NL clubs (because of the DH, I would assume), so I split out the two leagues.

Without any further ado...

National League

Team NameTotal LineupsZ-ScoreNumber of Times Most Frequent Lineup was used
Braves58-1.7621
Marlins60-1.6526
Cardinals70-1.0813
Brewers76-0.7321
Nationals78-0.6213
Phillies82-0.3919
Giants87-0.1114
Average88.90
Pirates950.358
Mets960.418
Reds970.4612
Diamondbacks970.4610
Dodgers1010.699
Cubs1050.926
Rockies1091.159
Padres1221.896

The Braves were the NL's most stable team this season, where the only real questionable position was second base. Tommy La Stella dispensed of Dan Uggla in short fashion, and now Ramiro Pena and Phil Gosselin have pushed La Stella thanks to the latter's sub-.200 average since August 1. I would estimate that La Stella has to earn his job in spring training.

The Marlins used the same lineup the most of any team in the league, and they had six players play at least 120 games at the same position. Their outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich is pretty well set until the club dumps one to a better team. Like the Braves, second base was the Marlins' most unsure position, with seven men playing the position. The Rafael Furcal experiment never came to fruition, and none of the other five men the Marlins used at second could unseat Donovan Solano's .648 OPS. Other than Furcal, the Marlins enjoyed extremely good health to their expected starting position players, and they all largely have fairly good track records (other than the sometimes-injured Stanton).

It should be no surprise that the Dodgers and Rockies each threw out 100+ lineups this past season, as both had multiple injuries at key positions without clear backups. Only two Dodgers played more than 120 games at the same position (Adrian Gonzalez and Dee Gordon), while the outfield alignment was (and remains) an unsettled mess. Only one Colorado player (D.J. LeMahieu) started more than 130 games at the same position. They used nine players at first base, even with Justin Morneau healthy all season. A return to health for Troy Tulowitzki would help this team's stability, as would a return to eptitude for Wilin Rosario.

The Padres were the NL's least stable team, which is the least surprising given the poor quality of their offense. Only four Padres (with at least 200 plate appearances) had a wRC+ over 100, while six had a wRC+ under 80. I would think the team's new management would turn over this roster quite a bit before 2015.

American League

Team NameTotal Number of LineupsZ-ScoreNumber of Times Most Frequent Lineup was used
Royals68-2.0824
Tigers77-1.5314
Orioles84-1.113
White Sox88-0.8622
Angels98-0.255
Astros99-0.189
Rays99-0.189
Average1020
Mariners1040.125
Indians1090.436
Yankees1100.4910
Blue Jays1120.617
A's1160.866
Twins1170.9210
Red Sox1231.296
Rangers1261.475

The Royals had both the fewest number of lineups (68) and most common starting lineup (24) in the 2014 version of the AL. Credit that to a core group of young players who rarely got hurt and did not get pushed by younger talent. Alcides Escobar played all 155 games entering Monday, Alex Gordon had played in 148, and Salvador Perez in 136. The Royals' brass appears to be loyal to the current core of players, so I would expect more of the same in 2015 as long as they don't blow the whole thing up if they miss the playoffs and James Shields departs.

The Tigers rank No. 2 on the AL's list, again thanks to strong health and clearly defined roles. The most ambiguous position has been shortstop, but still, only five men have started there this season. Even there, only two men - Eugenio Suarez and Andrew Romine - have essentially split duties there since May or so. Either/both of those guys could be in a reserve role next year if Jose Iglesias returns to full strength.

The A's set the fourth-most lineups in the AL, and their 116 lineups would rank second in the NL. Josh Donaldson played all but 16 of the team's games at third base, but he and Jed Lowrie were the only players to start more than 100 games at the same position. No outfielder played more than 94 games in the same spot, and the DH slot was a revolving door of 12 different players. Unlike other teams high up on this list, the A's were not struck by injury -- the volume of lineups is more attributable to a litany of platoons and employment of players at multiple positions in an attempt to put players in positions to succeed. As long as the same management is in charge for 2015 (and they should be), expect similar fluidity in 2015.

The Red Sox used a good number of lineups even in their championship 2013 season. They used more lineups in 2014 as they were indecisive at shortstop (remember Stephen Drew?), third base (a total of eight men used), and did not see stability in right field until Yoenis Cespedes came to town. The number of lineups could decrease in 2015 if Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli remain healthy, Xander Bogaerts sticks at short, and the outfield situation gets resolved early in camp.

The Rangers have used the greatest number of lineups, which is likely correlated with the fact that they have the worst record in the AL. Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre have been a constant presence at shortstop and third base, respectively, but the rest of their lineup has been beaten to a pulp by injury - they have used 17 men at DH, 11 men at first base, and eight men in right field. When you include pitchers, they have used 146 lineups in 149 days (as of September 14). Things should stabilize in 2015 if guys like Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland, Jurickson Profar, and Shin-Soo Choo can stay on the field.

Concluding Thoughts?

So why should fantasy managers care about the number of lineups real managers put on the field over the course of a season? Predictability matters. When setting a weekly (or daily) lineup, it's nice to know your players will be playing six of the seven games, rather than just the three games against right-handed starters. Health also matters, and the ordering on these tables is somewhat reflective of how well each team did in keeping players on the field (and how loyal each manager was to the subs when the stars went down). Health in 2014 is not necessarily predictive of health in 2015, but I would venture to guess that the young cores in Miami and Kansas City have better chances of remaining intact next year than the aged Rangers or the fragile Rockies.

See you in 2015!

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Eisner
Ryan has been writing for Rotowire since 2007. He currently writes about baseball and covers the White Sox.
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