This article is part of our DFS Baseball 101 series.
Hopefully, it has been a successful first week in daily fantasy baseball for you. This first week was not easy as we had a few nights where the pitching matchups left a lot to be desired. But it also gave me something to write about as you really want to play less when the pitching is not favorable.
Last week, I wrote about the 10 most important things to use when you are first starting out. This week, I am going to expand on those and give you some more strategy tips as a newer player in daily fantasy baseball.
1. Play cash games and tournaments on days when there are at least six games in a slate.
You can stick to just playing cash games, but the grind is longer and it can be boring. Taking a shot in some smaller field tournaments is the safest way to build your bankroll, but you want to do it on the larger slates so there is a lot of variance in lineups.
2. If there are less than six games in a slate, only play tournaments or take the day off.
Playing cash games on small slates is not advantageous because of the high ownership overlap on starting pitching, which then turns it into home run derby. New players are often tempted to play all the slates because they want to learn the game faster. This is how you lose your bankroll. If you feel the itch to play a smaller slate, just put in one lineup in a low entry GPP and one entry in a 50/50 for the same amount to hedge your entry amount.
3. Play the same contests every day. Don't jump around.
Have a game plan every day according to your bankroll. For example, I mainly play on FanDuel and focus my cash games on their 50/50 contests that are 100 man. I will also play in the single entry double-ups but only if they are are least 400 entries, because I want exposure to as many different opponents as I can get.
For GPPs, I'm trying to play the single entry or three max contests only. I don't want to run into players running 150 lineup combinations when I only have one. Also I want contests that are paying out 20 percent. As a backup plan, I look at the 100-man contests (three max entries) that pay out top 12. While the payout percentage is a lot less, if you hit first place in one of those it is 25x your money, which can build the bankroll quickly.
By playing in the same contests every day, you will be able to develop a strategy and get a feel for what types of lineups finishing in the top part of the money.
4. Do not play in 50/50s or double-ups that have less than 100 entries.
Unfortunately one of the bad things in the daily fantasy sports industry is the presence of "lineup sellers." These are sites that will sell the same lineup to all of their users and it ruins the 50/50s contests because the same lineup is being played and it kills any edge you would have. If you are playing a 20-man or 50-man and 10 people are running the same lineup the contest is pointless. At least with 100-mans you normally only run into the same lineup about 10 times.
5. Do not take hitters against your starting pitcher in cash games.
It's only viable to do on a small slate and use never want to spend up on the hitter. If you must take a hitter vs. your pitcher focus on a catcher, middle infielder or outfielder who is hitting at the top of the lineup and is a value play. Taking Nelson Cruz against your starting pitcher doesn't make any sense because you are spending huge percentage of your salary cap in a negative correlation outcome.
6. Avoid any games with a potential 30 percent chance of rain or higher.
If you see "light rain" in the forecast, that is usually OK and the game will be played. Otherwise, as a new player or smaller stakes player, you want to limit your risk so just avoid taking players in these games.
7. Pay attention to Vegas data that changes (line moves).
There are two things to look at regarding Vegas data: the money line and the total (over/under). The money line is how much the starting pitcher is favored. For example, if you see a pitcher that is -200 or higher, they are a significant favorite and should be considered on your cash game short list. I usually take note if a game has moved at least 50, so if a game opened -150 and moved to -200, that means the favorite is being bet very heavily and there is value in that intel.
On the totals side, we often see no line movement or 0.5 runs, which is common. But if there is at least a 1.0 difference on the total, I will look for exposure to the game. Again, bettors must have heavily on one side to get a line move of at least 1.0 on a total, which is important information.
8. Track the ownership percentage of your players in all contests.
In your cash games if you have a lot of players who are less than 10 percent owned, it means you probably took too much risk. You want to get a feel for who the players are who are going to be highly owned. Things to look at are the higher vegas totals, heavy favorites, batter vs. pitcher (it drives ownership) and if the hitter has a significant edge against that handed pitcher. (RHB usually crush LHP).
9. Track the ownership percentage of all players in contests you are in
On DraftKings, you can use the Export CSV feature that is on the contest page just below the standings. It will give you the percent owned for all of the players in the contest. I like to compare ownership rates in cash games vs GPPs. In cash games there are usually two or three pitchers who will make up the majority of ownership. Whereas in GPPs you will see people taking a lot more chances and up to 12-15 of them used.
On FanDuel, it is a bit more painstaking because you have to do it manually. But once you get the hang of it, especially on a mobile device it will be a great educational process for you.
10. When playing multiple lineups, pay attention to your exposure percentage on players.
If you are a newer player, I usually recommend you are only playing a single lineup. But if you have been playing for a season or two and want to start at playing multiple lineups, you want to keep track of the exposure on your players. If you are playing five lineups, owning a player on four of five lineups means you have 80 percent exposure. Unless it's a significant pricing mistake or value play, you usually want to diversify your exposure and not have 100 percent any one hitter.
