Collette Calls: LABRing to the Finish Line

The first rule of conversation: nobody cares about your fantasy team. There is an entire book on the subject and a variety of t-shirts and memes out there on the subject as well. So why am I writing this article? It is my hope you can apply the exercise I am going through these final weeks to your own fantasy team if you are in a similar situation.

As play begins on Labor Day, I currently enjoy a 4.5-point lead over colleague James Anderson in AL LABR as I look to repeat as league champ:

James has certainly not made it easy as he overtook my lead in the standings in May and held onto it for most of the summer until I jumped back in front of him in recent weeks:

The surge in the standings came from a ridiculous amount of pitching success in July, with my starting rotation of Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Nick Pivetta, Brady Singer and Taj Bradley winning 16 games and my overall pitching staff garnering 20 wins, a 2.86 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with 11 saves and 252 strikeouts in 214.1 innings. I enjoyed a 12-point lead one month ago, which has since varied anywhere from three to eight points depending on the day of the week. What happened?

That same pitching staff went 7-18 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in August. Saves were still there, and 191 strikeouts in 181 innings was a fine total, but 24 homers allowed and Taj Bradley pitching to a 10.41 ERA and a 2.01 WHIP while Brady Singer tried to keep pace with a 5.53 ERA and 1.59 WHIP ate away at my gains from July. I can't undo what is already done, but I have to look at each category to see what can be gained or lost by myself or James, as it would take a near miracle for Andy Andres to wipe out a 14-point deficit from third place to usurp both of us in the standings over these final four weeks. 

Hitting Categories

Batting Average:

This has been a fairly stable category in recent weeks, as is normally the case given how difficult it is to move the needle in batting average later in the season. It's just my luck that James made a two-point jump in batting average this week, but that is likely his ceiling in this category while his floor could be losing those two points. I, too, have a ceiling but have been treading water in fifth place in this category for five consecutive scoring periods. 

I have made roster adjustments by finally cutting loose Anthony Rendon and his .231 empty average from August last night and have added Justin Foscue and Nick Sogard to the lineup to replace Rendon and the recently-injured David Hamilton. The $1 purchase of Sogard was my final FAAB purchase of the season as LABR does not permit zero-dollar bids and the trade deadline is happening as I write this article, so any further replacement would need to come from a bench which includes Estevan Florial, Vaughn Grissom (more on him later), Danny Mendick and Austin Shenton. None of those players were added when rosters expanded on September 1st and Grissom is the only one who had any real shot.

Home Runs:

A strong month of August led by Anthony Santander, Kerry Carpenter and Giancarlo Stanton helped me jump three points in homers from where I finished July, and I've been able to hold off both Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN as well as James to date. This will be a contentious category because this is one of multiple areas where James can directly cut into my lead by eclipsing me in homers. He was one of the teams I jumped four scoring periods ago as Isaac Paredes struggled to adjust to life in the National League and the Unfriendly Confines of Wrigley, but the red-hot Lawrence Butler has kept him in this home run race with seven homers over the past two weeks. This is another area I can only hope to hold as I have nowhere to go but down.

RBI:

This is likely a non-factor category unless Larry Schechter gets hot and can jump James in RBIs. In fact, this category has seen very little movement in recent weeks other than Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf sliding in the category due to the loss of Kyle Tucker, which cost them three spots in the RBI rankings  The only change in these standings over the past four weeks is James and Larry jumping one another twice.

Steals:

This is a contentious category for me, while James is likely locked into these 12 points. Steve Gardner of USA Today has been in fifth place in this category for two months but remains a threat to make noise. Dave Adler of BaseballHQ could have made more noise if we had not just learned Esteury Ruiz is out for the season, as Adler has had him on the bench all year. Adler's squad is enjoying the steals from the Angels as both Zach Neto and Jo Adell are running wild for him. Andy Andres has Jose Ramirez in pursuit of a 40-40 season (with six steals to go) as well as Bobby Witt Jr., so I'm preparing to lose 1-2.5 points here given my loss of David Hamilton, who was leading my team in steals over the last month. Only Randy Arozarena has more than three steals for me over that time period.

Runs:

Here, James is once again in better position than I am, as he can realistically move up but not down, while I'm attempting to keep two teams from catching me in the categorical standings. Every run counts, and I simply need my team to score them as often as possible since I can only go down and lose two points in this category. Overall, a slump in runs and steals alone would negate my existing overall lead.

Pitching

Wins

I hate wins with a red hot passion and desperately want to see the industry change to innings pitched. I have been first or second in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts all season long but wins have mostly avoided my roster except for during the aforementioned hot streak:

I don't recall ever having a season where I have the ratios and the strikeouts yet can't get wins. I have run five starters, two middle relievers and two closers out there all season long to no avail. Last week, Framber Valdez threw seven no-hit innings without a decision while Nick Pivetta went 0-2 around 16 strikeouts and one walk with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. This truly is a no-win situation for me because James is in a three-way tie for wins so he could gain two points at any point while I need my rotation to earn a win nearly every time out the rest of the way if I have any hopes of catching the trio ahead of me in the standings. Five wins over the last three weeks for me may ultimately be what costs me in this league.

Strikeouts:

Here again, James has nothing to lose while I have another point to lose. I often do lose that point but gain it right back within the next night or two. I am not too worried about this category.

ERA:

I had been in first in this category most of the season until Taj Bradley decided to go all Wreck it Ralph on me in August. I could potentially catch Steve Gardner, but that's not a given. What concerns me more here is that James has the potential to gain at least a point in this category if the Sabermetrics 101 roster cannot work 63.1 innings in September. The league innings pitched minimum is 900 innings, and the rules states:

Each team will be required to attain a minimum of 900 innings pitched in order to qualify for placement in the pitching categories of; a) Ratio and b) Earned Run Average, and a minimum of 4,200 at-bats for placement in the batting average category. If these minimum innings or at-bats are not achieved the team will receive 1 point in these categories and every team that meets the minimum innings pitched or at-bats will be ranked in the standings with 12 points for 1st place and so on until all qualifying teams have received points.

That would mean a one-point adjustment in James's favor, and it will be close as to whether Andy's squad gets the necessary innings, especially with Garret Crochet being very limited in his work. 

Saves:

A familiar refrain: nothing to be gained for me but room for improvement for James. I made a move to try to stop him from gaining ground in saves by trading Andres Munoz to Todd Zola for Grissom. I had Chad Green on reserves in recent weeks as my only healthy bench pitcher, so I put him back in my lineup and moved Munoz to Zola in hopes the pitcher can help Todd stay ahead of James. Chris Clegg of Rotoballer has Josh Hader and Lucas Erceg for saves, but Erceg is still dealing with the hand issue from the comebacker the other night.

WHIP:

If we carry things out another decimal point, Chris Towers of CBS is at 1.149 and I am at 1.1518. This, too, was another area where I was sailing along until Bradley and Singer did a number on my WHIP. James sits at 1.1857 while Andy is at 1.1892, as long as he gets to the 900 inning mark. Simply put, I really need Andy to get to that mark and I wish I had a starting pitcher to trade him to make this less of a risk. Thankfully he does have $2 left of FAAB, so he could make another purchase if needed.

All in all, this is about the most uncomfortable lead I have ever held. I see more ways to lose it than ways to protect it given that my roster is set for the month with the trade deadline behind us and my FAAB budget empty. The good news is that one of the two people you readers lean on for guidance here all season will come home with the title, ensuring the AL LABR crown remains in the RotoWire realm for at another season.