This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, June 28
YTD 100-100-1
Prior article 1-1 ( -0.22 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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San Diego Padres 
at Boston Red Sox
This has turned out to be one of my favorite plays when there is a home favorite on a hot streak against a very poor starting pitcher. Randy Vasquez only gets 5.9 K/9 with an xERA of 6.81 and xFIP of 4.58. The Red Sox offense is top 10 in the last 30 days in most categories against right-handed pitching.
The edge you get taking F5 versus the full game is that if the Red Sox were winning in the ninth they do not hit (4.5 team total), so in this case we get 5 full innings of this Red Sox offense against a very poor pitcher.
I do think the full-game total is in play at 9.5 runs as the Padres crush right-handed pitching and Nick Pivetta gives up a lot of hard contact and home runs.
MLB Picks for Padres at Red Sox
- Red Sox OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -130)
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Miami Marlins 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
Cristopher Sanchez has flown under the radar most of the season, but the huge moneyline -230 shows the confidence in him, but this is also more of a play against Kyle Tyler and the Marlins.
The Phillies average 4.6 runs scored to 2.9 runs allowed (1.7) in the month of June and there is a HUGE pitching edge in this matchup with Sanchez versus Tyler. Tyler is 27 years old with a low-strikeout, high-walk rate in Triple-A. There are several ways you can play the Phillies tonight, including mixing them into parlays on the ML, laying -1.5 or even -2.5 runs, or taking their team total over. This one could get ugly very quickly.
MLB Picks for Marlins at Phillies
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 2 units (BetRivers -107)
Detroit Tigers
at Los Angeles Angels 
Two very bad pitchers in this game with Kenta Maeda against Zach Plesac has us screaming for an OVER in this game. Maeda has a 6.00 ERA while Plesac comes in with an ERA at 8.68.
One of my exercises I do before looking at the lines, is I do a "guessing moneylines and totals" and this one I thought for sure would be 9.5 or 10, so when I saw 9 as the posted total, I ran to the "window" or the app.
We might even see this one hit OVER by the 5th inning. That is how bad both starting pitchers are.
MLB Picks for Tigers at Angels
- Tigers/Angels OVER 9 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -114)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Red Sox OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -130)
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 2 units (BetRivers -107)
- Tigers/Angels OVER 9.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -114)
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