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Monday, June 3

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Baltimore Orioles head on the road to face the Toronto Blue Jays in an AL East division rival matchup. These teams have already played each other twice this season and split 3-2 games, with the third game being rained out. The Orioles were 10-3 against the Blue Jays last season and absolutely dominated them, including going 6-1 on the road. This will be the first time the Orioles are playing in Toronto this season. The Orioles are having an amazing season at 37-20 so far and they have won eight of their last 10 games overall. However, they are still just second in the division behind the Yankees, who are 42-19 this season. The Orioles are 16-8 on the road this season and they are a very good 18-7 against teams with winning records. The Blue Jays are 28-30 this season and they have really struggled to find some consistency since the start of the season. They are 14-13 at home and they have won six of their last 10 games overall.  They are also 13-16 against teams with winning records this season.

Grayson Rodriguez will face off against Kevin Gausman in this starting pitching matchup.  Rodriguez started the season very strong and he has really had only one bad outing, which came on the road against the Angels. He had to go on the IL with an injury at the end of April so he was only able to make three starts in May, but he is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA in those three starts. He has not faced the Blue Jays yet this season, but he faced them three times last season and allowed two runs in five innings pitched, three runs in 5.2 innings pitched and three runs in six innings pitched.

Kevin Gausman had a rough start to the season after an injury in spring training kept him from preparing the way he wanted. He was 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA in April, but he has started to find his stride, going 3-0 with a 3.76 ERA in May. He has pitched three straight quality starts since being blown up by the Twins, although those starts have come against the Rays, Tigers and White Sox.  He hasn't faced the Orioles yet this season either, but he did face them three times last season.  He allowed two runs in eight innings, three runs in 4.1 innings and two runs in six innings.  

However, these lineups have been performing completely differently this season. The Orioles have the fifth-highest wOBA in the league while the Blue Jays are ranked 16th. However, when it comes to runs scored, the Blue Jays are tied for fifth worst in the league with just 231 runs.  So even when they are hitting the ball well, they can't seem to get runs across the plate, which has been a problem for them for a while now. The other aspect here is the Orioles are calling up Connor Norby, one of their top prospects, so I am sure he will give them some energy.

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The bullpens are also performing completely differently this season. The Orioles' bullpen is ranked 11th in the league in bullpen ERA, and yes, they blew the lead late yesterday but they didn't have any of their top relievers available. They will have them all available today, though. The Blue Jays' bullpen is ranked fourth worst in the league in bullpen ERA and their closer, Jordan Romano, was just added back to the IL with an injury. They have a couple relievers they can rely on in Yimi Garcia and Chad Green, but they threw 26 and 27 pitches, respectively, yesterday so they might not be as effective if they threw today. I think there is plenty of value on the Orioles as the short favorites.

BEST BET

Orioles ML -115 vs. Blue Jays (DraftKings)

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