This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, July 5
YTD 107-103-1
Prior article 4-0 (+5.24 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Toronto Blue Jays 
at Seattle Mariners 
This Mariners offense is one of the worst in baseball and has the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. They are batting .193 as a team in that stretch with a 8-2 UNDER team total record in the last 10.
The real key here is the home/road splits for Kevin Gausman. They might be some of the biggest in baseball, with a home stat line of 7.19 ERA, 1.71 WHIP versus the road of 2.22 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. The value lies on going against the Mariners in this spot on the team total because they are home favorites of -142. If you want to look at taking the Blue Jays on the moneyline at +125 that is also in play.
MLB Picks for Blue Jays at Mariners
- Mariners UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +105)
Boston Red Sox 
at New York Yankees 
One of baseball's longest and best rivalries moves to New York just before the All Star break. These teams are headed in opposite directions with the Red Sox 7-3 and 14-6 in their last 10/20, and the Yankees are 2-8 and 6-14 in their last 10/20.
Tanner Houck is coming off his worst outing of the season against a red-hot Padres lineup, but he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Nestor Cortes has been much better at home than the road with a 1.84 ERA, 0.80 WHIP versus 5.63 ERA, 1.49 WHIP on the road.
The Red Sox have started to figure out how to hit left-handed pitching with a 128 wRC+ over the last 30 days and I will lean on that. I think this will be a lower-scoring game in the first 5-6 innings, but then the bullpens will become a factor and that is where the Red Sox have an edge. Give me Tanner Houck and the Red Sox on the moneyline.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Yankees
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +123)
Houston Astros 
at Minnesota Twins 
Both teams are playing great baseball and the Twins have a decided edge in the starting pitching department as Pablo Lopez has turned things around in the last month. The Twins are averaging 6.6 runs per game since June 9 and now face Shawn Dubin, and that is where I would like to focus. Almost every hitter in the Twins' lineup has a 120 wRC+ or higher in the last 30 days and some of the numbers are scary when looking at the extremely low strikeout-to-walk rates. This team is just seeing the ball incredibly well right now and smashing.
MLB Picks for Astros at Twins
- Twins OVER 4.5 runs for 2 units (DraftKings +105)
Baltimore Orioles 
at Oakland Athletics 
The Orioles are the best offensive team against right-handed pitching on the season and the A's struggle against right-handers to one of the lowest wRC+. I usually shy away from laying -1.5 in extreme pitcher parks like Oakland, but the huge edge on the hitting side for the Orioles makes it workable.
The Orioles are 41-22 against righties, while the A's are 25-45. Albert Suarez has been solid with the exception of one start at the Astros, which is understandable. Hogan Harris struggles with command and that is not something you want against a lineup like the Orioles.
MLB Picks for Orioles at Athletics
- Orioles -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Mariners UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +105)
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +123)
- Twins OVER 4.5 runs for 2 units (DraftKings +105)
- Orioles -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
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