This article is part of our From the Press Box series.
As we approach the holiday season, some teams are in position to begin planning ahead and making decisions about their pending free agents. They need to get a handle on the fit of these players on their rosters, not just for the remainder of this season, but also for the next few years.
Last week, we looked at Steven Stamkos, so let's stay on that track with his implications for the Lightning's roster and salary cap. Based on their current salary structure, the Bolts have no cap space for the rest of this season. When they look ahead to the offseason, they will have 13 players under contract for a total of $47.6 million. That means they're set to have $23.8 million left for their 10 remaining roster spots.
Here's where it gets interesting. Among their pending free agents (including unrestricted and restricted), Tampa has Stamkos, Alex Killorn, Vladimir Namestnikov, Nikita Kucherov and Cedric Paquette, all members of the top three forward lines. Throw in the facts that Brayden Coburn (current cap hit $4.5 million) will either have to be re-signed or replaced and that Nikita Nesterov will be a restricted free agent, and the Lightning blue line will eat up more available space.
They also have to consider that defensive lynchpin Victor Hedman, arguably the next-most-important player on this roster, will need a new contract in a year; he'll be looking for his own handsome, long-term deal.
That's eight key pieces that need to be
As we approach the holiday season, some teams are in position to begin planning ahead and making decisions about their pending free agents. They need to get a handle on the fit of these players on their rosters, not just for the remainder of this season, but also for the next few years.
Last week, we looked at Steven Stamkos, so let's stay on that track with his implications for the Lightning's roster and salary cap. Based on their current salary structure, the Bolts have no cap space for the rest of this season. When they look ahead to the offseason, they will have 13 players under contract for a total of $47.6 million. That means they're set to have $23.8 million left for their 10 remaining roster spots.
Here's where it gets interesting. Among their pending free agents (including unrestricted and restricted), Tampa has Stamkos, Alex Killorn, Vladimir Namestnikov, Nikita Kucherov and Cedric Paquette, all members of the top three forward lines. Throw in the facts that Brayden Coburn (current cap hit $4.5 million) will either have to be re-signed or replaced and that Nikita Nesterov will be a restricted free agent, and the Lightning blue line will eat up more available space.
They also have to consider that defensive lynchpin Victor Hedman, arguably the next-most-important player on this roster, will need a new contract in a year; he'll be looking for his own handsome, long-term deal.
That's eight key pieces that need to be resigned. A new Stamkos contract would cost the Bolts no less than $10 million per season, which would mean that at least three of the other players named here would have to be let go and replaced with guys making around the league minimum.
Alternatively, if Stamkos were allowed to leave, the Lightning would have some much-needed flexibility to fill out a more competitive roster.
This is one example of the thinking that goes on around the NHL as a necessary part of planning and managing rosters in this salary-cap era. It will become more important as this season winds down and teams decide whether to go for the ultimate prize and add to their rosters, or sell off assets in exchange for prospects and draft picks.
Season-long fantasy leagues closely mirror this landscape, and that's another reason why I try to learn from the pros in managing my own keeper-league teams.
Likely outcomes for other pending free agents
Eric Staal, C, CAR – The Hurricanes' captain is not expected to return next year – at 31 years of age, he doesn't fit with a rebuild that must be allowed to continue in this market. Look for him to be dealt close to the Feb. 29 deadline, likely to a playoff contender in need of scoring help. His suitors should include Montreal, Nashville and Minnesota, among others.
Brian Campbell, D, FLA – He's been a good soldier for the Panthers, aiding in the development of young blueliners like Aaron Ekblad, Erik Gudbranson and Dmitry Kulikov. But it may be time for the 36-year-old to part ways with Florida; expect him to go to a team that's looking for an offensive-minded blueliner to add some quarterbacking skills on a power-play unit and while solidifying the top two defensive pairings. He may be of interest to Chicago or Los Angeles in such a role. Of course, the Panthers are moving in the direction of making their own playoff success happen, so they could hold onto him.
Anze Kopitar, C, LA – At 28, he is entrenched as the Kings' first-line center and has plenty left in the tank. As such, Kopitar's not expected to leave this situation; there's talk of contract negotiations already well under way, and an extension may be announced early in 2016.
Cam Ward, G, CAR – The long-time No. 1 goalie in Carolina is winding up a deal with a $6 million annual cap hit and is getting two-thirds of the starts, with Eddie Lack handling the remainder. Lack signed a new pact that will pay him $2.75 million in each of the next two seasons. Given that, the 'Canes would probably like to move Ward, giving the 27-year-old Lack a shot at the top job next year. They would be better served with cap flexibility to spread some dollars around the rest of their roster and take on a cheaper backup goalie heading into next season. Ward's potential suitors will include any contenders looking to add a veteran goalie as playoff insurance or to replace an injured starter down the stretch.
Keith Yandle, D, NYR – One of the league's top-scoring blueliners throughout much of his NHL career, Yandle's seen his production dip below what we normally expect, but he's still playing top-four minutes for the Rangers, a team that has designs on an extended playoff run. He's not going anywhere at the trade deadline and will have a chance to hit it big at the payoff window if he has a productive second half and postseason. Yandle's just 29 and should still have many productive years left in a solid career.
Dustin Byfuglien, D, WPG – The 30-year-old Byfuglien is one of the most versatile players in hockey, as he is a proven commodity at forward and on defense, which he has played throughout this campaign. He's also blessed with that rare combination of formidable size, strength and skills. Buff is a key piece for the Jets, who are also looking ahead to a rare playoff appearance, and they probably would be inclined to keep him in that interest. For his part, Byfuglien is probably inclined toward exploring his options in free agency this summer. If the Jets look like they might fall short of a playoff appearance, they will explore a trade market that could result in quite an auction among contending teams. Either way, Buff is going to be in the rumor mill and will emerge holding a big, new contract in 2016.
Radim Vrbata, RW, VAN – The 34-year-old sniper, who has often lined up with the Sedins this season, is another player whose future is going to be linked to his team's playoff possibilities. If the Canucks look like they will make the postseason, Vrbata will continue in his current role in hopes of a long run spearheaded by a group of aging veterans. But if things don't look good for Vancouver, he'll be a trade candidate at the deadline. In either scenario, he looks expendable for a Canucks club that needs to get younger next year.
These are only a handful of the large number of players who should be motivated to play well either for new contracts or to help their teams grab hold of that ultimate sign of success, the Stanley Cup. Fitting them all together under a fixed salary cap is the challenge for the league's GMs. It's also well worth the attention of successful fantasy owners.
Merry Christmas and happy holidays!
