Yoan Moncada

It's quite possible that Moncada's fantastic 2019 season will wind up being a career outlier. He posted a .315/.367/.548 batting line with 24 home runs and 11 stolen bases over 132 games that year and even garnered one down-ballot vote for American League MVP. In his 1,637 plate appearances since the beginning of the 2020 campaign, Moncada has slashed just .243/.325/.395 with middling power and only six total steals in eight total attempts. The 28-year-old third baseman is locked in for a $24.8 million salary in 2024 and carries a $5 million buyout on his $25 million club option for 2025, so he's probably close to untradeable unless he achieves some kind of massive turnaround in the first half of 2024. He remains an underwhelming fantasy option on a White Sox team that seems a bit directionless at the moment.

Moncada is still a young man as he will not turn 28 until late May, but we have certainly seen a range of outcomes with him since he became a full-time player in 2018. He peaked in 2019 and between Covid, injuries, and personality clashes with his now former manager, has backslid into a shell of his former self. 2022 was him taking all the worst parts of his previous seasons and putting them into one terrible season. If his slump was truly just a clash with the manager and he can rebound to even his 2021 levels, fantasy managers should be happy with that and treat both 2019 and 2022 as outlier seasons. He is a patient hitter who was surprisingly dreadful against righties (.204/.257/.325) a year removed from hitting .268/.385/.431 against them. Top that off with his anemic .169/.239/.291 hitting at home where he normally mashes and it is easy to see where things went wrong for him. The park is not changing, but Pedro Grifol may be able to get from him what Tony LaRussa never could.

With an offseason to recover from 2020's bout with COVID-19, Moncada rebounded. His power remained down, though power estimators suggest he was a couple homers shy of what was expected. The chief improvement came from career bests in K% and BB%. However, Moncada's Statcast card is misleading since his average exit velocity on grounders was two mph above his avgEV on flyballs. Exit velocity drives power, so Moncada needs to loft the ball more if he wants to increase home run output. Another concern is stealing only three bases in five tries. Moncada's line drives and groundballs will help maintain an elevated BABIP, but his K% still dampens his average. Age is on Moncada's side, so he could make some adjustments, but the chances of him becoming a superstar player in Major League Baseball are dwindling.

Moncada contracted COVID-19 before the season started and said in September that his body still hadn't recovered. It was plain as day he was not himself; Moncada slashed just .225/.320/.385 with six homers and 24 RBI over 52 games in 2020. He's just one year removed from hitting .315 with 25 long balls and 79 RBI in 132 contests, but his elevated K% and IFFB% gave him little chance at success. He was also unable to swipe a single bag after recording double-digit steals totals in both 2018 and 2019. Moncada has shown that he can be a big-time contributor in all five categories and can be a cornerstone of a fantasy squad, when healthy. Moncada should be in line to hit in the top third of the order for a powerful Chicago offense in 2021. The 25-year-old spent most of his time in the No. 2 spot (40 of 52 games) a season ago.

Something was in the water on the South Side of Chicago; the free-swinging Tim Anderson won the batting title and his free-swinging teammate Moncada raised his batting average 80 points from 2018. We always knew this kid could hit as the ball flies off his bat and his Statcast batted-ball data lives in the 80th percentile or above, but we wondered if he could make enough contact to take full advantage of that. We have our answer. Moncada reduced his strikeout rate, and while 27.5% is still not great, it is an improvement over the previous years and that is what we want to see from young hitters. The shift from second base to third base puts a premium on the power numbers from the position, and Moncada answered that call last year. Of his 50 career homers, 42 have come from the left side of the plate, so while he switch hits, the production is lopsided in favor of his time against righties.

Moncada took a step back in 2018. His K% edged up from 32% to 33.4% while his BB% slipped from 12.6% to 10.3%. He hit 5% more flyballs, but a drop in HR/FB from 18.2% to 11.7% mitigated the effect. He grades well in average exit velocity but fell back in barrel rate, helping explain the drop in power. Moncada's 12-for-18 mark in steals was disappointing after the speed he displayed in the low minors. He also displayed less range on defense, contributing to -5 defensive runs saved. There's a chance he's moved to third or the outfield, but for now the White Sox plan on keeping him at the keystone. Moncada will turn 24 in May, so there's no reason to lose faith, but he's near the point where skills maturation is needed if he's to live up to the hype. Titles are often won taking chances. While there aren't any signs his breakout is imminent, the acquisition cost has softened to the point the reward could outweigh the risk.

After slashing .282/.377/.447 with 12 home runs and 17 stolen bases for Triple-A Charlotte to begin the season, Moncada was summoned back to the bigs for good on July 18. Other than a 10-game visit to the disabled list for a shin contusion in late August, Moncada was the White Sox's regular second baseman, a spot he'll likely occupy for the entirety of 2018. Moncada still has a lot of work to do, but especially down the stretch, he displayed the skills that has fans and fantasy enthusiasts salivating. After returning from the DL, Moncada hit .276 with five homers and two steals, scoring 11 while driving in 18. However, he also fanned 30 times in 109 plate appearances. Curiously, he may not be aggressive enough, taking strikes and falling into bad counts as his swing rate in and out of the zone are below average. Still just 22, Moncada has plenty of time to figure it out. Temper expectations this season, but his ceiling is still that of a fantasy stud.

Moncada was part of the headline with the biggest font this offseason, when Boston traded him along with three other prospects to the White Sox for Chris Sale. Widely considered the top prospect in the game, he moved from High-A Salem to the majors last season, both burnishing his prospect cred and exposing a potential hole at the upper levels. Moncada cruised through the Carolina League with a .923 OPS and 36 steals in 61 games for Salem before being promoted to Double-A Portland, where he clubbed 11 homers in 45 games. He showed all of his elite offensive tools, but with the higher level came a drastic increase in strikeouts. Pitch recognition and handling breaking balls are the final touches, but he'll hit. Defensively, he'll stick at second base for now, but he has the physical size and bat to play anywhere.

Moncada made his organizational debut for Boston last season, the Cuban defector's first game action since December 2013. He was kept behind in extended spring training and was then assigned to Low-A Greenville. He was slow to start – he hit .200 in his first 30 games – but Moncada hit his stride in the second half. He slashed .310/.415/.500/.915 with 45 steals after the All-Star break and has shot to the top of the organization’s prospect rankings. Moncada’s a well-built athlete who generates good bat speed and doesn’t cheat on his swing. He’ll hit for power and steal bases and has the tools to defend. He played second base at Greenville, but could move to third base or center field in the future. He plays the game with swagger and tends to be too flashy in the field. The Red Sox will probably challenge him at High-A Salem at some point this year.

Moncada may be the best young prospect to defect from Cuba this decade. While he lacks the pedigree and track record in international and professional league play of recent Cuban defectors who've become stars, Moncada may have the best all-around talent. He has excellent bat speed, plus raw power, outstanding speed with a plus arm. It's not clear if he'll play in the infield or outfield. It may take a few years before he's ready for the majors, but MLB teams will likely be willing to pay hefty taxes to blow past international signing limits to secure him. He should be a top prospect to grab in keeper leagues as a result.