Trey Mancini

Mancini certainly felt the effects of the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his production before he was dealt to Houston. His overall numbers were just slightly above the league average for a second consecutive season, but his production in Houston was far less than in Baltimore. He hit just .176/.258/.364 after the trade compared to .267/.347/.404 before it. His 2019 season (35 HR) is unlikely to happen again, but 20 homers and 60-70 runs scored and runs driven in is certainly in the realm of realistic outcomes. It is tough to figure out a batting average projection for someone who has hit anywhere from .239 to .291 in recent seasons, especially someone as slow. He needs a heavy dose of batted ball luck to repeat his batting averages of 2017 and 2019, but given a different baseball than those seasons, it is safer to hope for a .250 batting average. He still qualifies in the outfield this season but is unlikely to see much action there after he signed a two-year deal with the Cubs given his defensive deficiencies. Mancini should split playing time at first base and designated hitter with Eric Hosmer and is clearly the better option of the two.

After battling cancer, Mancini came back and hardly skipped a beat. While he didn't hit over 30 home runs like he did in 2019 when Major League Baseball was using the infamous juiced ball, the homer total was comparable to his earlier seasons. His walk and strikeout rates remain constant. He still doesn't steal bases (two in his career) and he might have worn down as the season went on, with his OPS dropping from .791 in the first half to .711 in the second half. Most of that OPS loss was the result of a decline in power (.204 ISO to .128 ISO). It's a long season, and Mancini should be commended for playing in 147 games after such a serious health scare. A full offseason with his focus on the game of baseball should help him take a step forward this season.

In mid-March 2020, Mancini was diagnosed with a malignant tumor in his colon. He underwent surgery and embarked on a long recovery process, sidelining him the entire season. Late last year, Mancini reported his latest bloodwork revealed no tumor DNA and he was already working out in an effort to be ready for spring training. When Mancini last took the field in 2019, he was one of the many benefiting from the Happy Fun Ball. He launched a career-best 35 homers that year, but considering the long layoff, it's best to temper expectations, especially early. Mancini was one of the more durable and reliable players in the league and should qualify at first base and in the outfield based on 2019 games played. Assuming no one is paying for Mancini's 2019 numbers, he's a candidate to supply discounted power, in a climate where useful cheap power is hard to find.

Even bad teams score runs. Look no further than Mancini's combined 203 runs and RBI, tied for 20th in MLB. Mancini's 74th percentile hard-hit rate with a relatively low 7.8-degree launch angle favors average over power. However, he clubbed a personal best 35 homers, a remarkable total considering a 32% flyball rate. It wasn't just a Camden Yards thing as Mancini slugged 17 long balls on the road. The homers were earned as illustrated by a 342.8-feet average flyball distance, the 11th longest among qualified hitters. Last season, Mancini split time between first base and outfield and is likely to do so again. The dual eligibility combined with a stable skill set and durability (averaging 152 games the past three seasons) render the righty a solid fantasy hitter, providing stability so risks can be taken elsewhere. With limited speed, Mancini's ceiling is capped unless he elevates the ball more.

Boom-boom had somewhat similar numbers in 2017 and 2018. He repeated his home-run total from his breakout 2017 season, although he needed 50 more plate appearances to get there. He scored a few more runs, thanks to those extra plate appearances, despite a 39-point drop in his on-base percentage. He is a bit of an oddball at the plate because, as a righty, he has been rather terrible against lefty pitchers the past two seasons, and was especially bad against them last year (.225/.287/.364). The only thing worse than his hitting lefties is watching him play the outfield. He has a good arm and can throw well from left field, but his lateral movement can be measured by laying down a yardstick without picking it up again. Statcast says there was more to his contact than the final numbers showed last year, but in a division loaded with quality lefty pitchers, there is a limit to his upside. As long as he stays in Camden, he can pull 20 homers.

There are not too many combinations in baseball better than being a right-handed pull hitter in Camden Yards. The slugger surprised us all when he not only made the Opening Day roster, but stayed on it all year and produced better power numbers than he had anywhere in the minor leagues. The problem for Mancini is this: he had a 51.0 percent groundball rate. Can he continue to hit one of every five flyballs out of the yard? Both are sustainable numbers for any hitter, and we still do not have enough batted balls in play to know confidently the sum of Mancini's abilities. His groundball rate was split neutral, but his HR/FB rate dropped to 16.1 percent in the second half from 23.7 percent in the first half. As long as he gets to hit in Baltimore, he is a decent bet to repeat a 20-homer season, but forecasting 25-plus is tough to do.

Coming off of a breakout 2015 season in which he slashed a hearty .331/.370/.539 between High-A and Double-A, Mancini entered the 2016 season as one of the organization's more promising prospects. After bludgeoning Double-A pitching to the tune of seven home runs in his first 17 games, he was promoted to Triple-A. In 125 games there, the power-hitting first baseman put together an impressive campaign in which he slashed .280/.349/.427 and saw his walk rate increase to nine percent, but also his strikeout rate spike to nearly 23 percent. He joined the O's as a September callup and belted three homers in his 15 big league plate appearances. It will be interesting to see what the Orioles do with Mancini in 2017. With first base blocked by Chris Davis and the DH role likely accounted for with the return of Mark Trumbo, he could end up seeing time in left field in an effort to get his bat in the lineup. It appears to be a tall task, but if he carves out a consistent role, he is capable of providing value due to his impressive power profile.

Mancini vaulted himself to the top of Baltimore's prospect pipeline with a breakout 2015. Drafted in 2013, Mancini had not been regarded as a high level prospect. He started by repeating the High-A level and had a .213 ISO, earning a promotion to Double-A. Mancini was even better at the higher level, punching up his ISO to .227. Mancini sported a .400 BABIP at Double-A, a mark which will be difficult to sustain. With a walk rate of 5.8 percent between the two levels, he still has some work to do on plate discipline, but his 21 home runs on the season reflect power that is beginning to show up in games. Mancini appears to have surpassed Christian Walker as the top prospect at first base. Given how Mancini dominated Double-A, he seems likely to begin the season at Triple-A and he could warrant a midseason promotion unless the Orioles make a big commitment to a free agent first baseman.