Trey Mancini

32-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Free Agent

2024 Stats

AVG

.000

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

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RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

2023 was a season to forget for Mancini, as he posted career worsts in OPS (.635) and strikeout rate (29.9 percent) with just four home runs in 79 games with the Cubs before being released in August. He joined the Marlins on an MiLB deal for 2024, which is a solid landing spot with the underperforming Avisail Garcia penciled in at designated hitter. Mancini is just a couple years removed from being a solid power threat for Baltimore, and it's possible he's able to regain that form in Miami. He'll first need to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster, however. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

From Preseason

#363

ADP

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'4"

Weight 215

DOB 3/18/1992

Drafted 8th Rd 2013

Planning comeback in 2025

1BFree Agent

November 1, 2024

Mancini is eyeing a return to the major leagues in 2025 after sitting out the 2024 season, Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner reports.

ANALYSIS
Mancini opted out of his minor-league contract with the Marlins during spring training after being informed he wouldn't make the Opening Day roster and he never signed on with a new team. However, after a year off to recharge his battery, Mancini is aiming to play in 2025. Slated to turn 33 in March, Mancini slashed just .237/.313/.374 from 2022-23 and could have to settle for a minor-league contract.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

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2018

2017

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+8%

OPS vs RHP

2024

No Stats

2023

+6%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+14%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.653	295	27	6	27	0	.230	.302	.351
Since 2022vs Right	.705	553	60	16	64	0	.241	.318	.387
2024vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2024vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023vs Left	.657	108	14	2	13	0	.223	.306	.351
2023vs Right	.620	153	17	2	15	0	.241	.294	.326
2022vs Left	.650	187	13	4	14	0	.234	.299	.351
2022vs Right	.738	400	43	14	49	0	.241	.328	.411
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+16%

OPS at Home

2024

No Stats

2023

+35%

OPS at Home

2022

+9%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.735	435	51	13	50	0	.260	.329	.406
Since 2022Away	.635	413	36	9	41	0	.214	.295	.340
2024Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2024Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023Home	.722	141	18	3	15	0	.262	.333	.389
2023Away	.534	120	13	1	13	0	.202	.258	.275
2022Home	.741	294	33	10	35	0	.259	.327	.414
2022Away	.678	293	23	8	28	0	.219	.311	.367
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Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Trey Mancini See More

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

242 days ago

Jan Levine kicks off the column for 2024 and examines all the NL positional battles.

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274 days ago

Positional battles with significant fantasy implications can be found throughout the NL East, including one in the Phillies outfield.

Collette Calls: 2024 AL Central Bold Predictions

308 days ago

Jason Collette's latest set of bold predictions features one on Cole Ragans, but in which direction?

Three Up, Three Down: Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees

October 25, 2023

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NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

July 23, 2023

Jan Levine shares his top National League pickups of the week, including Cincinnati's latest call-up Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Mancini certainly felt the effects of the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his production before he was dealt to Houston. His overall numbers were just slightly above the league average for a second consecutive season, but his production in Houston was far less than in Baltimore. He hit just .176/.258/.364 after the trade compared to .267/.347/.404 before it. His 2019 season (35 HR) is unlikely to happen again, but 20 homers and 60-70 runs scored and runs driven in is certainly in the realm of realistic outcomes. It is tough to figure out a batting average projection for someone who has hit anywhere from .239 to .291 in recent seasons, especially someone as slow. He needs a heavy dose of batted ball luck to repeat his batting averages of 2017 and 2019, but given a different baseball than those seasons, it is safer to hope for a .250 batting average. He still qualifies in the outfield this season but is unlikely to see much action there after he signed a two-year deal with the Cubs given his defensive deficiencies. Mancini should split playing time at first base and designated hitter with Eric Hosmer and is clearly the better option of the two.

After battling cancer, Mancini came back and hardly skipped a beat. While he didn't hit over 30 home runs like he did in 2019 when Major League Baseball was using the infamous juiced ball, the homer total was comparable to his earlier seasons. His walk and strikeout rates remain constant. He still doesn't steal bases (two in his career) and he might have worn down as the season went on, with his OPS dropping from .791 in the first half to .711 in the second half. Most of that OPS loss was the result of a decline in power (.204 ISO to .128 ISO). It's a long season, and Mancini should be commended for playing in 147 games after such a serious health scare. A full offseason with his focus on the game of baseball should help him take a step forward this season.

In mid-March 2020, Mancini was diagnosed with a malignant tumor in his colon. He underwent surgery and embarked on a long recovery process, sidelining him the entire season. Late last year, Mancini reported his latest bloodwork revealed no tumor DNA and he was already working out in an effort to be ready for spring training. When Mancini last took the field in 2019, he was one of the many benefiting from the Happy Fun Ball. He launched a career-best 35 homers that year, but considering the long layoff, it's best to temper expectations, especially early. Mancini was one of the more durable and reliable players in the league and should qualify at first base and in the outfield based on 2019 games played. Assuming no one is paying for Mancini's 2019 numbers, he's a candidate to supply discounted power, in a climate where useful cheap power is hard to find.

Even bad teams score runs. Look no further than Mancini's combined 203 runs and RBI, tied for 20th in MLB. Mancini's 74th percentile hard-hit rate with a relatively low 7.8-degree launch angle favors average over power. However, he clubbed a personal best 35 homers, a remarkable total considering a 32% flyball rate. It wasn't just a Camden Yards thing as Mancini slugged 17 long balls on the road. The homers were earned as illustrated by a 342.8-feet average flyball distance, the 11th longest among qualified hitters. Last season, Mancini split time between first base and outfield and is likely to do so again. The dual eligibility combined with a stable skill set and durability (averaging 152 games the past three seasons) render the righty a solid fantasy hitter, providing stability so risks can be taken elsewhere. With limited speed, Mancini's ceiling is capped unless he elevates the ball more.

Boom-boom had somewhat similar numbers in 2017 and 2018. He repeated his home-run total from his breakout 2017 season, although he needed 50 more plate appearances to get there. He scored a few more runs, thanks to those extra plate appearances, despite a 39-point drop in his on-base percentage. He is a bit of an oddball at the plate because, as a righty, he has been rather terrible against lefty pitchers the past two seasons, and was especially bad against them last year (.225/.287/.364). The only thing worse than his hitting lefties is watching him play the outfield. He has a good arm and can throw well from left field, but his lateral movement can be measured by laying down a yardstick without picking it up again. Statcast says there was more to his contact than the final numbers showed last year, but in a division loaded with quality lefty pitchers, there is a limit to his upside. As long as he stays in Camden, he can pull 20 homers.

There are not too many combinations in baseball better than being a right-handed pull hitter in Camden Yards. The slugger surprised us all when he not only made the Opening Day roster, but stayed on it all year and produced better power numbers than he had anywhere in the minor leagues. The problem for Mancini is this: he had a 51.0 percent groundball rate. Can he continue to hit one of every five flyballs out of the yard? Both are sustainable numbers for any hitter, and we still do not have enough batted balls in play to know confidently the sum of Mancini's abilities. His groundball rate was split neutral, but his HR/FB rate dropped to 16.1 percent in the second half from 23.7 percent in the first half. As long as he gets to hit in Baltimore, he is a decent bet to repeat a 20-homer season, but forecasting 25-plus is tough to do.

Coming off of a breakout 2015 season in which he slashed a hearty .331/.370/.539 between High-A and Double-A, Mancini entered the 2016 season as one of the organization's more promising prospects. After bludgeoning Double-A pitching to the tune of seven home runs in his first 17 games, he was promoted to Triple-A. In 125 games there, the power-hitting first baseman put together an impressive campaign in which he slashed .280/.349/.427 and saw his walk rate increase to nine percent, but also his strikeout rate spike to nearly 23 percent. He joined the O's as a September callup and belted three homers in his 15 big league plate appearances. It will be interesting to see what the Orioles do with Mancini in 2017. With first base blocked by Chris Davis and the DH role likely accounted for with the return of Mark Trumbo, he could end up seeing time in left field in an effort to get his bat in the lineup. It appears to be a tall task, but if he carves out a consistent role, he is capable of providing value due to his impressive power profile.

Mancini vaulted himself to the top of Baltimore's prospect pipeline with a breakout 2015. Drafted in 2013, Mancini had not been regarded as a high level prospect. He started by repeating the High-A level and had a .213 ISO, earning a promotion to Double-A. Mancini was even better at the higher level, punching up his ISO to .227. Mancini sported a .400 BABIP at Double-A, a mark which will be difficult to sustain. With a walk rate of 5.8 percent between the two levels, he still has some work to do on plate discipline, but his 21 home runs on the season reflect power that is beginning to show up in games. Mancini appears to have surpassed Christian Walker as the top prospect at first base. Given how Mancini dominated Double-A, he seems likely to begin the season at Triple-A and he could warrant a midseason promotion unless the Orioles make a big commitment to a free agent first baseman.

More Fantasy News

Opts out of deal

1BFree Agent

March 23, 2024

Mancini opted out of his minor-league contract with the Marlins on Saturday, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports.