Shelby Miller

Miller returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of June. Things didn't go as planned for the right-hander, as he was tagged for 21 runs (19 earned) over four starts (15 innings) before landing back on the disabled list with elbow inflammation and missing almost the entire rest of the year. He was able to toss a scoreless inning of relief in the penultimate game of the season. Arizona non-tendered the 28-year-old this winter, an understandable move given his injury history and underwhelming numbers over the past three seasons (5-18 record, 6.35 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 109:62 K:BB across 139 innings). Miller signed a one-year, major-league contract with the Rangers, and while he now has to make his home starts in one of the toughest venues for pitchers, at least he will be afforded a long leash in the starting rotation with Texas.

Miller made four starts in 2017 before a torn UCL in his right elbow led him to season-ending Tommy John surgery in May. Before going under the knife, Miller was showing the ability to miss bats at a healthy clip in his limited opportunities to pitch, and his fastball velocity jumped to a career-high 94.9 mph. Although Miller was throwing from flat ground in October, he will be less than a year removed from surgery on Opening Day. As he moves further into his rehab, a clearer timetable for his expected return should surface. The D-backs' rotation was strong despite his absence in 2017, and with all five of those starters penciled into their respective spots to begin the season, Miller could end up as the team's sixth starter and long reliever initially upon his return. The increased velocity last season makes him slightly more interesting than he was coming off of a brutal debut season with Arizona in 2016 when his ERA topped out at 6.15.

Miller certainly would like to just forget the 2016 season ever happened. Acquired in an offseason trade with Atlanta (a deal that sent former No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson to the Braves, along with outfielder Ender Inciarte), Miller was supposed to pair with Zack Greinke to give Arizona a boost in the rotation. Instead, Miller struggled pretty much from the start, and he ended up being demoted to the minors in July. Miller's 6.15 ERA was easily the worst of his career -- his previous worst was the 3.74 ERA he posted in 2014 with St. Louis. Heading into 2017, Miller's stock is as low as it's ever been. He'll probably start the season in the rotation if only because of how much the team gave up to get him, but it's clear Miller is on a short leash. He will be much less in demand on draft day than he was a year ago, so he could be a decent bargain play if he's able to revert back to his previous form.

Miller's first two seasons feel miles apart despite only a 0.68 difference in ERA. His strikeouts plummeted, his walks spiked, and he likely wouldn't have maintained his 3.74 ERA without a .256 BABIP. His debut season with Atlanta looked a lot like the rookie season from 2013, complete with strikeout and walk improvements, plus a sharp spike in his groundball rate to a career-best 48 percent. He spent the first five-plus months with a sub-3.00 ERA before a modest September, but his season will be most remembered for a 24-start winless streak (0-16 with eight no-decisions). He certainly didn't pitch poorly, but his 3.83 ERA and 1.43 WHIP during that stretch played a big role in his own demise. If the groundball gains are real, he doesn't need a return to his '13 strikeout level to be solid. Pay for mid-3.00s and expect an uptick in wins after the blockbuster trade that sent him to the Diamondbacks.

In November, Miller was sent to Atlanta as part of the Jason Heyward trade, a move that could help the talented righty who's still just 24 years old. Miller was solid again in his second full season as a major leaguer, starting 31 games and posting a 3.74 ERA and striking out 127 batters across 183 innings. His underlying numbers are less impressive, however, as he was helped by a .256 BABIP and a 76.9% LOB percentage, slightly lower than his career norms. His 4.47 xFIP is not inspiring, but he is still very young and Atlanta has always had success in developing pitchers, so the change of scenery could be just what he needed. Unfortunately, the loss of Heyward from the outfield won't do Miller any favors as he's a bit of a flyball pitcher (0.97 GB/FB). Miller should still have a fairly safe floor and a decently high ceiling for 2015, making him a worthy gamble if the price is right.

Miller started the season on fire as one of baseball's best pitchers over the first few months of 2013. Even after cooling a bit in the second half, Miller finished the season with excellent numbers, striking out 169 batters in 173.1 innings and carrying a 3.06 ERA. He struggled with walks at times, but at age-23, he's still capable of ironing out those issues. Miller's mysterious disappearing act during the playoffs led many to speculate that the young flame-thrower might be traded during the offseason, but Miller remains with the team heading into the spring and projects to be a mid-rotation starter for the Cards in 2014.

One of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, Miller struggled at times with Triple-A Memphis last year, but he had a nice stint with the Cardinals late in the year, including a six-inning scoreless gem on the season's last day. Miller will be given every opportunity to win a job in the rotation this season, and given his stuff, he could be at the top of that rotation within a few years. You might look at his 4.74 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with Memphis and wonder what the big deal is, but check out the 160:50 K:BB ratio in just 136.2 innings. It might already be too late to get him at a good price.

St. Louis may inexplicably give the ball to Kyle Lohse every fifth day, but they have a pitcher down in Springfield that is probably better than Lohse right now. Miller, the top prospect in the St. Louis system, and arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, may get a shot at making the rotation out of spring training, but he's far more likely to pitch in the minors at least for a few more months. His walk rate could use a little work, as it increased a little when he advanced last year, but everything else is already major-league ready. Buy him now before it's too late.

The Cardinals are clearly being cautious about their top draft pick in 2009, but at 19 he put up a dominating 140:33 K:BB ratio in 104.1 IP for Low-A Quad Cities last year, so it won't be long before they start feeling the pressure to bring him up. A .367 BABIP contributed to his not-so-noteworthy ERA and WHIP, so his numbers could improve this year even if he doesn't. He's going to advance quickly, so pick him up in keeper formats while you still can.

Miller was the Cardinals' first-round pick out of high school last year. He's big and throws very hard, but at just 19, he has a long way to go before he reaches the majors. He'll probably spend all of 2010 in Low-A, working on his command.