Nick Pratto

As expected, Pratto had trouble hitting consistently against major-league arms, batting .184 with a .657 OPS across 182 plate appearances with the Royals. He was in a unique situation, sharing first base and designated hitter with fellow prospect Vinnie Pasquantino. While that's an acceptable short-term arrangement that could exist for part or all of 2023, the Royals' position-player prospects could eventually create a logjam in the majors that necessitates a deal. Pratto added seven homers in his first taste of the majors last year, but a 36.3 percent strikeout rate and a 10.7 percent walk rate were not the right mix for a three-true-outcomes hitter. He also didn't attempt a steal in the majors last year -- he didn't get on base enough to make an impact there. There's room for the 24-year-old to grow if he can break camp with the Royals, but there are enough red flags in his profile to make him risky even in AL-only formats, though his plus power could quickly nullify those concerns.

Pratto and teammate MJ Melendez having massive bounce-back campaigns after dreadful 2019 seasons was one of the better stories in the minors last year. Pratto hit .265/.385/.602 with 36 home runs, an excellent 39.5 Hard%, a 15.2 BB% and a 28.8 K% in 545 plate appearances at Double-A and Triple-A. Once seen as a potential hit-over-power prospect, Pratto has evolved into a three-true-outcomes masher. He was second in the minors in home runs and ISO (.337), so the power is very real, but his strikeout rate is pretty concerning for a player at age-appropriate levels, as the gap between Triple-A and MLB pitching is massive. Better in OBP leagues than batting average leagues, Pratto could be a sneaky source of 6-12 steals, thanks to strong instincts on the bases. He is a good defensive first baseman and will likely get a chance to play there regularly in the majors this summer. However, it seems likely that he will be a batting average sinkhole as a rookie.

It is tough to know how to react when a player is productive, but in a very different way than the pre-draft scouting report foretold. Take Pratto, the 14th overall pick in 2017. "Command of the strike zone" and "developing power" were the selling points for this hit-over-power prep first baseman. Instead, he had the 15th highest K% (27.9) in the Sally League while his power was ahead of schedule (.163 ISO). However, his 13.4% swinging-strike rate was only the 27th highest mark in the league, so he does not have debilitating contact issues, and really improved in the second half. From July 14 on, Pratto hit .343/.422/.596 with seven home runs, a 24.5 K% and an 11.5 BB% in 192 PA. Pratto uses the whole field (32.1 Oppo%) and his 22.9% line-drive rate ranked eighth in the league, so the ingredients are there for him to become the player we thought he would be, his development just won't be linear -- it rarely is.

The 2017 draft saw four first basemen go in the first round and Pratto was the only high schooler to break up the college bats. Typically prep hitters are slower to tap into their raw power. However, those three college first basemen combined for seven total home runs after signing, while Pratto hit four out himself. He also tied for fourth in the AZL with 15 doubles -- an indicator that even more over-the-fence power is coming. Pratto was the only corner infielder in the AZL to steal double-digit bases, which says more about his instincts than raw speed, as he is actually a below-average runner. He didn't get the bat on the ball enough, striking out 25.2 percent of the time, but projects to make massive strides in that department in the coming years. He showed patience (10.4 percent walk rate) and more power than most were expecting in his first pro season. One thing to watch going forward is his performance against lefties, whom he hit .234/.321/.319 against in a small sample.