Manuel Margot

Margot's .264/.310/.376 slash line from last season looks similar to his 2022 line, but it resulted in a 12-point drop in his wRC+ (to a below-average 93) since offense was up league-wide. The veteran outfielder hit just four home runs with 38 RBI, 39 runs and nine stolen bases in 99 games, and his minus-three DRS was the worst mark of his career. Margot missed a month due to elbow surgery, and it's the second straight year he had a sizable absence due to injury. The defense seems likely to rebound since he's only just entering his age-29 campaign, but the upside is limited given his underwhelming power and speed production over the past two seasons (eight homers and 16 steals). At best he's likely to provide a decent average and reach double-digit steals while working in a reserve role. He was traded to the Dodgers from the Rays and then to the Twins in the offseason. he'll look to find a right-handed platoon role and be a back up to oft-injured Byron Buxton in center field.

Margot started the season on fire, slashing .348/.412/.500 through 27 games before being put on the IL with a hamstring strain. After a short stay, Margot returned and posted a .256/.316/.344 over his next 24 games, then returned to the IL with a serious knee sprain, costing him another two months. Margot finished the season .240/.276/.318 in 38 games. All told, Margot put together a 106 wRC+ season, his first ever above average but it was clearly driven by an unsustainable start. For the first time since becoming a regular, Margot failed to register double-digit steals, likely due to two injuries to his lower half since five of his seven pilfers came during the first part of the season. As a righthanded hitter, Margot is always a candidate for a platoon, but his strong defense always leads to more playing time. Despite the odd course of last season, Margot is the same player, with some added health risk.

Margot is in the final year of team control before free agency, and has served as a perfect complement to the lefty-heavy outfield both as a platoon partner as well as a regular in the four-man rotation manager Kevin Cash employs to keep everyone fresh. On any other team, Margot would be the best defensive outfielder on the club, yet he is not even in the top two on his own club as the roster stands today. He has the ability to hit for contact and work counts, but otherwise lacks any elite offensive abilities. He has a perpetual green light to steal bases under Cash, but has converted just 68% of those chances with the breakeven point for achieving the benefit of steals at roughly 75%. A potential trade of Kevin Kiermaier would likely have no impact on Margot's plate appearances as such a move would be done to free up time for Vidal Brujan or Josh Lowe more than to turn Margot into something he is not, which is an everyday player.

Margot racked up 12 steals despite making just 37 starts during the short 2020 season. He spent time on the COVID-19 injured list, not because he contracted the virus but as a precaution after traveling to the Dominican Republic following the death of his father. Margot still ended up tying with Kevin Kiermaier for fifth-most PA on the team (159). While Margot only hit one homer during the regular season, he clubbed five HR in the postseason while slashing .276/.344/.552. He also made one of the best catches you'll ever see in the ALCS after grading out exceedingly well in terms of outfielder jump during the regular season. While Margot is never going to hit for a ton of power, he does enough else well to allow the speed play in most rotisserie leagues assuming he's getting the playing time. Everyday at-bats should not be expected, but Margot looks like he will have a significant role on the 2021 Rays.

Is the glass half empty or half full when it comes to Margot? Half empty: for the third straight season, Margot's batting average took a dive, cratering to .234. Half full: thanks to a career-best 8.6 BB%, his OBP actually jumped by 12 points over the previous season. Half empty: Margot hits a lot of weak popups, with his infield flyball rate landing north of 17% for the second consecutive season (league average is around 11%). Half full: he was in the 90th percentile in average sprint speed and swiped 20 bases in 24 attempts last season. Unfortunately, there's very little in his minor-league track record or batted-ball profile to suggest another level of power is coming, and his path to playing time has even more obstacles following a February trade to Tampa Bay. Any player capable of stealing 20-plus bases is going to be useful in this environment, but Margot's batting average and power output should be expected to remain suboptimal.

To modify Peter Parker's infamous line: with great speed comes a great responsibility to get on base to use it. Margot is still trying to figure out how to use his super power at the major-league level because he has a career .300 on-base percentage over nearly 1100 plate appearances. The other problem has been even when Margot has been on base and attempted to use his blazing speed for steals, he has been thrown out 36% of the time. He is 24 years old, and ahead of the learning curve compared to most of his peers given he already has two full seasons at the major-league level. We like to see some year-over-year growth from youngsters at this level, but the only real posiitve we have so far from him is a three-percentage-point reduction in his strikeout rate. Opposing pitchers challenge him in the strike zone taking advantage of his aggressive approach and lack of power. He is a bottom-of-the-lineup hitter until he can show some OBP skills.

Margot was thrown to the wolves as a rookie and more than held his own. Kids his age are typically in the California League playing ball; Margot was starting for one of the five major-league teams in the state while hitting leadoff. His ability to get on base is driven more by his batted ball skills rather than his ability to accept his walks (6.6 percent) which is why his OBP was low at .313 last year as a rookie. His minor-league track record shows a better knack for reaching base and utilizing his speed and that should surface more at the big-league level as he gets more experience. Expect him to return to the leadoff role and have a shot at 30 steals if he can get his OBP up closer to .350. He started the season 10-for-16 in steals, but closed it a very efficient 7-for-8, which should earn him more chances in 2018.

Margot was acquired from the Red Sox as part of the Craig Kimbrel deal in November 2015 to bring a near major-league-ready talent to the rebuilding San Diego pipeline. He continued his fast ascent through the minors, starting his age-21 season at Triple-A El Paso before earning a 10-game taste of the big leagues in late September. At the plate, Margot has shown a steady hit tool with the ability to frequently make contact (11.3 strikeout percentage at Triple-A), and his quick wrists allow him to generate more pop than his 5-foot-11 frame might suggest. He also possesses plus-plus speed, which makes him a long-term option in center field, where he has the potential to be a good defender. With El Paso, Margot went 30-for-41 on the basepaths (73.2 percent), supporting the claim that he's still in need of some polish as a base stealer. With little left to prove at Triple-A, Margot appears to be the frontrunner to open the season as the Padres' starting center fielder, and his short-term fantasy value will receive a boost if he can settle in as the team's leadoff hitter.

Margot's ascent to the major leagues continued apace in 2015, when he spent time at two levels in Boston's organization. At this rate, he'll hit Triple-A in the second half of 2016. He's still young for his level and can be overly aggressive at the plate, but has natural bat-to-ball skills and rarely strikes out (10.6 percent of plate appearances). His walk rate has remained stagnant as Margot attacks pitches early in the count, and he'll need to work on selectivity while developing an all-field approach. Margot has present doubles power and the speed for triples (nine last season). There's room for him to develop over-the-fence power, which could translate to 10-15 homers. Defensively, he's above average at the premium position. Margot is one of the game's better prospects, which is why the Padres wanted him when they traded closer Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox. He'll likely open the season as the leadoff hitter and center fielder for Double-A San Antonio.

Margot, a 19-year-old with five-tool potential, showed some promise in 2014, beginning at Low-A Greenville before an August promotion to High-A Salem. He's a blend of power and speed with advanced defense in center field. For Greenville, his bat developed over the year and he finished the year hitting .446/.492/.696 for the Drive in August. From 2013 to 2014, he increased his walk rate from 8.3% to 10.1% while dropping his strikeout rate from 18.5% to 11.5%. He's clearly improving his approach at the plate. Margot is also a threat on the basepaths, stealing a system-high 42 bases in 2014, though he needs to a better job reading pitchers. He'll likely be assigned to High-A Salem of the Carolina League, where he will be one of the younger players in 2015.

Margot's statistics didn't stand out in 2013, but the Red Sox are excited by the tools of this undrafted 18-year-old prospect. He had some successful stretches with short-season Lowell, but also had a hamstring injury that wiped out a portion of his season. Margot's body should fill out some, but he's projected to remain a center fielder and is considered a plus defender. He showed enough against older competition and we expect a full-season assignment at Low-A Greenville.