Kolby Allard

Allard has had a rough introduction to the big leagues, posting a 6.72 ERA and 1.67 WHIP across his first 87 innings. While bad luck is partly to blame -- Allard has 60.7% left on base rate -- his skills have also been subpar. Particularly, he has suffered from reverse platoon splits, allowing opposing lefties to hit .321/.405/.500 in a 122-plate appearance sample. Those struggles have stemmed largely from poor results with his fastball. In 2020, however, Allard showed improvement with the pitch, both limiting hard contact and generating more swings and misses. Even with that step forward, he will likely struggle to rack up strikeouts as he's rarely reached a 20% rate since reaching the upper levels of the minors. After a far from encouraging start to his major-league career, Allard could compete for a rotation spot in camp, but his future is likely in the bullpen.

Allard got his first real audition in the major-league rotation over the final two months of 2019 after he was traded from the Braves to the Rangers. The 22-year-old failed to generate many strikeouts, recording just a 15.9 K% while losing some of his control (9.1 BB%). Despite the lack of traditional dominance, Allard limited hard contact, with a stellar 0.6 HR/9 rate and an elite 2.6% barrels/BBE rate. Allard has the tools to generate more strikeouts, but could stand to improve the movement on his pitches in order to become a more valuable fantasy asset. The southpaw may have to bide his time for a rotation spot after the team brought in Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles this offseason, and Allard still needs to prove himself on the field before he can be considered more than an AL-only option.

What Allard lacks in terms of dominance (sub-8.0 K/9 rates at both Double- and Triple-A) he makes up for to a decent extent with good control and home-run suppression. Allard issued free passes at a 7.4% clip with Triple-A Gwinnett in 2018 and gave up all of six home runs in 112.1 innings with the Braves' top affiliate. He's not a huge groundball pitcher (38% last season), but he's nevertheless proven effective at limiting the long ball with his HR/9 never exceeding even 0.75 HR/9 on the farm. The lefty was knocked around for three homers in his limited exposure to big-leaguers (eight innings), and it's possible he won't be so good at limiting homers in the majors, but at the very least the control should translate. While he's behind several arms in the organization and the floor may not be as steady as it once seemed, Allard still stands a chance to be a useful back-end starter, possibly as soon as this season.

If Allard threw just a bit harder, he would be a very good bet to make it as a No. 3 starter, with the potential to exceed that projection. He could have a plus curveball, plus changeup and plus command from the left side, which puts his secondary tools in the top one percent of left-handed pitching prospects. While many evaluators expected him to add a tick or two to his fastball in pro ball, we are still waiting on that, as he routinely sat in the 89-91 mph range last season. His ability to locate his fastball early in the count and lean on his extremely advanced secondaries allowed him to have success against Double-A hitters, despite being the youngest pitcher in the Southern League after skipping High-A entirely. Most impressively, he was able to log 150 innings, putting to rest concerns about his previous back injuries and perceived fragility. He will head to Triple-A and has a chance to reach the majors before his 21st birthday in mid-August.

Pitching depth is typically the first thing mentioned when the Braves' farm system gets brought up. It's worth keeping that depth in mind when noting that no pitcher in that system offers the combination of floor and ceiling that Allard brings to the table. The projectable southpaw missed the first two months of the season with a back injury and then gave up 11 runs in 12 innings over his first three starts with Low-A Rome, leading to a demotion to the Appalachian League. However, he made the necessary adjustments and returned to the Sally League in mid-July, using a plus fastball and plus curveball to cruise to the finish with a 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 50:16 K:BB over his final eight starts (48 innings). It's scary to think what he might do this year as a 19-year-old in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.