Joey Lucchesi

Lucchesi underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2021, meaning he will be more than 20 months removed from the procedure by the time the 2023 season gets underway. Still, it's anyone's guess how much he will be able to contribute. The left-hander returned to throw 12.2 rehab innings in the minors late in 2022, pitching to a 2.13 ERA and 12:3 K:BB in the minuscule sample. He has to be considered a performance question mark after posting a 4.91 ERA over his last two ostensibly healthy seasons. The Mets certainly aren't going to be counting on the southpaw to shoulder a heavy burden in the starting rotation. Lucchesi has a couple minor-league options remaining, so he can be stashed away if he's looking healthy and capable in the spring.

After throwing nearly 300 innings for the Padres across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, Lucchesi spent the majority of the 2020 campaign at the team's alternate training site. Clearly no longer a rotation staple in San Diego, he was acquired by the Mets in the three-team Joe Musgrove trade, netting the Pirates an extra prospect from New York's farm system. When on the mound, the southpaw has managed a respectable 4.21 ERA across 299.1 career innings. His skills largely back his early-career success, as his FIP, xFIP and SIERA all closely resemble his actual ERA. The primary concern for Lucchesi going forward is his reliance on two pitches -- a fastball and changeup -- which prevents him from going deep into games. When working his third time through an opposition's order, Lucchesi has posted a 7.58 ERA in 48.2 career innings.

Lucchesi's sophomore season appears to be a carbon copy of his rookie campaign but it was a small step back. His strikeout rate fell from 26.5% to 23% while his walk rate increased from 7.9% to 8.2%. In 2018, Lucchesi posted a 4.08 ERA followed by a similar 4.18 mark last season. However, 2018's xFIP and SIERA were 3.45 and 3.64, respectively, in contrast to 2019's 4.36 and 4.48. By estimators, Lucchesi's 2019 ERA should have been almost a run higher than it was in his debut season. Lucchesi is still experimenting with his repertoire so don't count out a rebound. His staple is a 90-mph sinker. Last season, he cut back on his sinker and curve, adding a changeup that generated a promising 17.6% swinging-strike mark and low .235 BABIP. He has more success on pitches requiring less spin. Once he figures out the right combo, he could take the next step. In the meantime, Petco Park offers a safety net to stream.

Deception is the name of the game with Lucchesi; the lefty has a funky delivery and arm slot. The 2016 fourth-round pick was a surprise addition to the rotation out of spring training and enjoyed quite a bit of initial success, posting a 3.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 48:15 K:BB over nine starts before a hip strain forced him to the disabled list. It ultimately became clear that the deception could only take Lucchesi so far. Once teams got a better scouting report, the results took a predictable turn for the worse (4.88 ERA, 1.37 WHIP after the break) even as he continued to miss bats at a steady clip. The 7.9% walk rate looks good, but his command is actually lacking in a major way; the emerging stats that attempt to judge a pitcher's intent all point to Lucchesi's command being bad. Right-handers combined for a .339 wOBA against Lucchesi and he had homer trouble at home and on the road. There are better fliers to take in the mid-to-late rounds.