Jeimer Candelario

Candelario has always packed latent power, but Comerica Park kept most of his fly balls in the yard. Last season, he signed with Washington and homers ensued, buoyed by power-friendly Nationals Park and Wrigley Field in the summertime. Before he was traded to the Cubs, Candelario clubbed 16 homers, fueling a .258/.342/.481 line. He fell a bit after, posting a .234/.318/.445 line, but added six more homers to set a new career high. Candelario's .471 slugging mark was the second highest of his career, only bettered by .503 in the pandemic season. His strikeout and walk rate have been in the same range for many years, with no sign of changing this year. Candelario's BABIP has been all over the place, ranging from .257 to .333 over the past six seasons, omitting the .372 mark recorded in the shortened 2020 season. He finds himself in his best home park to date after signing a three-year, $45 million deal with the Reds. His dual eligibility makes for a decent late cornerman, and while he may get more days off than a true everyday player, the switch hitter should be in the middle of the lineup most days and is a must-play at home.

Like a lot of Detroit hitters, Candelario mostly struggled in 2022. He batted just .159 in April and .210 in May, and while he was a bit better later in the year, Candelario never really got going, finishing with a .217 average. His playing time was trimmed a bit as a result, as he went from 149 games played in 2021 to 124 in 2022. Candelario's OPS dipped precipitously as well, falling from .794 to .633. The new Tigers regime non-tendered him, but he landed on his feet with a one-year, $5 million deal in Washington, where he could play every day. He has at least shown that he's a solid if not spectacular big leaguer, batting .271 or better in 2020 and 2021. He also hit 16 home runs and tallied 67 RBI during that 2021 campaign, and now Candelario goes from the worst park for home runs in the league per Statcast's park factors (Detroit) to the 11th best park (Washington).

Candelario had been all over the map heading into the 2021 season. He had just one full season under his belt, and struggled through it despite 19 homers and 78 runs scored. He showed a surprising bat in the 2020 season, but got off to a slow start in 2021 and had just five homers, 24 RBI and a .262 average to show for his efforts at the break. The Tigers stuck with him, and Candelario rewarded them with 11 second-half homers with 43 RBI and a .282 average while reducing his strikeout rate five percentage points. While 2021 was ultimately a happy medium statistically between his surprising 2020 season and his 2018 campaign, last year's second half shows there there could be more upside here. The playing time is all but guaranteed for him as long as he is able to avoid injuries. Beware that strong second half is pushing up his draft cost this winter. Candelario reaching the 20-homer plateau for the first time does seem like a safe bet.

Candelario has teased us in the past with flashes for the Tigers. We're ready to be hurt again. The improvement he showed in 2020 was extraordinary; Candelario hit just a shade under .300, up nearly 100 points from 2019, with 21 extra-base hits over 206 PA. In total, his offensive contributions added up to a 137 wRC+. Statcast says he overachieved by 20 points in the BA department, which makes sense given his BABIP was .372, though in fairness to Candelario he was in the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate, so a lot of those base hits were deserved. He's routinely sat around a 25% strikeout rate and improved upon that mark in 2020 even while adding power. His supporting cast is not good, but the team context means Candelario should have an ultra-secure role. Throw in dual eligibility (1B and 3B) in leagues with a 10-game minimum and Candelario looks like a nice corner-infield pick with upside.

Candelario opened 2019 as the Tigers' third baseman, often entrusted at leadoff. He failed to take advantage and was sent to Triple-A Toledo after posting a .192/.285/.288 line through 28 games. Candelario righted the ship and was recalled in late May. This pattern continued throughout the season. Candelario would struggle with the Tigers and sent down to the Mudhens where he'd rake -- lather, rinse, repeat. To be fair, Candelario's .203 average was a bit lower than his .229 xBA, but even the expected mark is poor; he's overmatched by MLB pitching. Candelario makes frequent contact on four-seamers, but it's weak, with the lowest average exit velocity of all pitches. His strikeout rate on curves, sliders and cutters was 42%. The Tigers will give Candelario the chance to break camp at first base, but unless he learns to square up heat and improve contact on movement, he will be on a Quad-A path.

Defense gets prospects to the major leagues while offense keeps them there. Candelario had a strong sophomore season defensively after barely losing his rookie status in 2017. The counting stats show mostly a repeat of his efforts at Triple-A, as he has been working on getting more loft to his swing over the past two seasons. He has improved a 1.5 groundball-to-flyball ratio down to around 1:1. That said, his pull tendencies (46.6%), high strikeout rate (25.8%) and below-average speed led to batting average challenges. It is tough to have a sub-.225 average with an 11% walk rate, but Candelario pulled it off last season. His switch-hitting abilities are rather lopsided as he is 15% below the league average for his career against righties while being 30% above league average against lefties. The batting average struggles will continue as long as his splits remain that stark.

Blocked by Kris Bryant during his time as a member of the Cubs, Candelario's path to become a big-league regular improved following a midseason trade to the Tigers. After the trade, Candelario spent his first month in his new organization at Triple-A, but he has little left to prove at that level with a career .292/.373/.507 line and 24 homers in 767 plate appearances over two seasons. At age 24, he should get a chance to hold down the everyday job at third base for Detroit, thanks to his steady glove, and the ability to switch-hit, which makes him less susceptible to falling into a platoon. Candelario has shown a discerning eye at the plate in the upper levels of the minors, and that skill has held up during his limited exposure to major-league pitching. At this stage, he looks like a good hitter with developing power, making him an intriguing corner-infield option now that he has a chance to play regularly.

Candelario took a step back at the plate at the Double-A level in 2016, whiffing at an increased clip and seeing his OPS drop from .841 in the second half of 2015 to .690 at the start of 2016. He was promoted anyway to Triple-A Iowa, where he saw a significant spike across the board in his overall offensive performance in the hitter-friendly environments of the Pacific Coast League. A brief five-game taste of the big leagues in early July answers little about his ability to handle big league pitching, and the greater obstacle for Candelario is that he's currently behind Kris Bryant on the organizational depth chart. A path to regular playing time in the majors may require a deal to another organization, and his advanced eye at the plate (12.3 percent walk rate at Triple-A, 17.2 percent strikeout rate) will help fuel interest from other clubs. Assuming that he remains with the Cubs, the switch-hitting Candelario will likely return to Iowa to begin 2017.