Jakob Junis

San Francisco has a strong track record of taking pitching castoffs from other organizations and making them into useful assets. In the case of Junis, it was almost an extreme makeover because Kansas City's pitching development did little to make Junis better and even Junis's first year with the Giants could only get so much out of him as a starter. The club decided to turn Junis into a reliever in 2023 and he rewarded them and NL Only fantasy managers with a 20.4% K-BB% along with 96 strikeouts in 86 innings and 4 wins. The righty's best pitch has always been his slider, so the Giants encouraged him to spin it early and often, and he did so throwing it 62.5% of the time. It is a good thing he did too because his sinker was safely put into play 42% of the time and his changeup 27% of the time. Junis is at his best in a White Castle Special of heavy sliders, but the lack of an effective second pitch pigeonholes his role in the pen.

Junis has spent a career trying to find something to go along with his slider and his command of the strikezone, but has yet to find anything else. Kansas City was not exactly known for great pitching development in his time there, so the move to San Franciso was interesting because of their track record of turning castaways into treasure. The Giants had Junis really lean into the slider and took away his very hittable four-seamer to see what would work. The problem became his sinker was even more hittable than his four-seamer, and the changeup they gave him lacks any redeeming characteristics. Junis made 17 starts, but such a limited repertoire in both depth and effectiveness is playing with fire depending on the matchups because he historically has issues with lefties. The best outcome we can hope for here is a full-time conversion to reliever and him going Matt Wisler with the slider and throwing it 90% of the time. Until that happens, he is not worth rostering.

The Royals have a type of pitcher they like, as evidenced by Brad Keller and Junis. Throw fastballs and sliders, and we'll try to see what happens. That has been the case with Junis, and the slider is easily his best pitch. He leveraged it successfully in both 2018 and 2019, throwing it with a high degree of success to hide his rather hittable fastball. Do whatever you will with the small sample of 2020, but the fact remains Junis was getting strikeouts despite his limitations in other seasons. The main issue is his repertoire leaves him susceptible to lefties who have little trouble hitting him, so he attempts to pitch around them and get to the next righty in the lineup. He can contribute strikeouts to your bottom line, but they'll come at the expense of your ratios. He does not walk many, but the non-slider offerings are too hittable.

After being a league average pitcher for a couple of seasons, Junis fell back last year, exhibiting poorer control while allowing harder contact. The result was a bloated 1.43 WHIP along with a lofty 5.43 ERA. The damage could have been worse, except Junis did a slightly better job keeping the ball in the yard despite the reduced-drag ball. Junis features a 92-mph fastball, slider, sinker and change. His slider is his most effective pitch as he throws it 10-mph slower than his heater, whereas his sinker is just a tick below 92 and his changeup is a scant seven-mph slower. Junis' swinging-strike rate has increased the last two seasons, but the overall leap from 8.9% to 9.8% isn't enough to significantly improve his strikeout rate. Junis could revert to 2017-2018 levels, and a league average hurler can be an asset, especially in formats facilitating streaming. However, the days of hoping for more are over.

There has been a push to have pitchers throw fewer fastballs and use their secondary pitches more frequently. It goes against the mantra of getting ahead early with fastballs and putting guys away with non-strikes, but if there were ever a pitcher for this theory, it is Junis. He has a gorgeous slider that looks like a confused Florida tourist as it tries to find the exit for Disney World. It stops, looks around and changes directions without a turn signal. The problem for Junis is that it is his only good pitch, as the rest of his stuff grades out as below league average. This is why he gave up 32 homers in 30 starts while pitching in a division that had just one team with a winning record. The slider is so good that his splits are not as bad as one would assume them to be, but the home runs are a problem that offsets what he brings to the table with a 16.0 K-BB%.

With Junis, the sum is greater than the parts. He doesn't throw especially hard, averaging just over 91 mph with his fastball. His slider has good sweeping movement, but it does not result in a whole lot of swings out of the zone (8.9 percent swinging-strike rate) or groundballs (40.1 percent groundball rate). However, by commanding those two pitches and mixing in occasional curveballs and changeups, Junis found a good amount of success in his debut with the Royals, especially in the second half (3.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 52:9 K:BB). It's impossible to project him for a 3.5 percent walk rate -- his post-ASG mark -- over the course of a full season, but Junis has a strong track record of control in the minor leagues, and workload is not a big concern after he totaled 169.1 innings between the majors and Triple-A last season. He should have a rotation spot out of camp, and the home park is a big plus in his favor.