Hunter Renfroe

Once considered just a platoon bat, Renfroe had the best season of his career in 2021, reaching new highs in playing time (PA and games) and runs-plus-RBI (195). Additionally, his .259 average was the highest since his debut season. The biggest gain was from his strikeout dropping for the second straight season. Over his career, Renfroe has destroyed lefties (.903 OPS) compared to righties (.732 OPS), but in 2021 he held his own against righties (.779 OPS). Since there was no need to platoon him, he was able to rack up the counting stats. Additionally, he lowered his launch angle, thereby lowering the number of easy flyball outs (47.7 FB% to 43.3 FB%), adding more line drives. Following a December trade to Milwaukee, his playing time seems even more secure. Renfroe will look to maintain last year's improvements and perhaps the park can help him find a way to take another step forward.

The Rays going 0-for-the-World Series around the Randy Arozarena homers put the spotlight on the terrible early returns on their deal for Renfroe. Rather than pay Tommy Pham what he had coming in arbitration or give Jake Cronenworth a chance in Tampa Bay, both were sent packing for Renfroe and prospect Xavier Edwards. Renfroe was horrendous in Tampa Bay outside of the occasional massive homer off a lefty pitcher. The club used him in a platoon capacity, but as Eastern Division foes lost lefties to injuries, Renfroe's playing time declined. The swing is long, and when it rests, it has a tough time waking up. Boston is hoping that changes in 2021 after signing him to provide help against lefties. Renfroe's flyball-plus-pull-heavy approach in Fenway may entice you to reach, but a few dominoes need to fall for him to play every day.

Renfroe's 2019 campaign was a drastic contrast between two halves. He cracked 27 home runs before the All-Star break, tied for fifth in the majors. The second half was a different story, however, as he hit a paltry .161 and swatted only six long balls. Injuries played a major part in his slide; he was dogged with various ailments throughout the latter part of the season. His 31.2 K% and 71.4% contact rate were both far below league average, yet he posted the highest walk rate (9.3%) and ISO (.273) of his career. This offseason, the Rays shipped Tommy Pham and a good prospect to San Diego for Renfroe and a great prospect. Part of the real-life appeal is that he was worth 22 defensive runs saved last year (elite) and can play all three outfield spots. His career splits (139 wRC+ against LHP, 90 wRC+ against RHP) could lead to the platoon-happy Rays handing Renfroe his fewest PA since his rookie season.

The 2018 version of Renfroe was, in many ways, much like the 2017 version. The home-run and run production look almost like mirror images, but there were some gains below the surface. Renfroe cut down on the swing and miss while increasing his Isolated Power and overall offensive production. Eighteen of his 26 home runs came against righties and he lifted his .202/.244/.393 slash line against righties from 2017 to .245/.293/.510 in 2018. Do not buy into the “age 27” theory talk you may hear elsewhere as much as the fact Renfroe is heading into his third full season and has thus far shown tangible progress with his offensive profile. Thirty homers in 2019 looks like a foregone conclusion based on the trends, and we cannot rule out a push for 40 with more playing time and some HR/FB variance.

In the era of the three true outcomes, Renfroe is more of an either/or: strikeout or homer. As a 25-year-old rookie, Renfroe walked just 5.6 percent of the time after posting a 3.9 percent walk rate at Triple-A El Paso in 2016 (22 walks in 563 plate appearances). The power is real, but it isn't quite elite -- Renfroe had a 7.1 Brls/PA, .467 xSLG and 24.2 xHR. Meanwhile, Renfroe chased roughly one-third of the pitches he saw out of the strike zone and fanned 29.2 percent of the time overall. He did most of his damage against lefties, struggling to an ugly .202/.244/.393 line against same-handed pitching. Making matters worse, Renfroe was also a net negative on defense. Players have to do more than one thing well to stick around at the big-league level, and right now, Renfroe is a one-dimensional player. He will have to compete for time in left field with Wil Myers moving to right.

Renfroe swatted a career-best 34 homers in 2016, with 30 of those long balls coming at Triple-A El Paso before a late-September call to San Diego. Considering the lack of power in the Padres' lineup throughout the season, it's somewhat surprising that he wasn't added to the mix sooner, but a second-half fade in the minors (.734 OPS) after a strong first half (.973) may have been the culprit. In addition to a drop-off in offensive production, Renfroe struck out at a much higher clip in the second half (20.4 strikeout percentage overall), and he failed to walk frequently throughout the season (3.9 walk percentage at Triple-A, 2.8 in 11 games with San Diego), raising questions about his eye and plate coverage. With plus power, Renfroe should have a place in the Padres' outfield to open 2017, but he possesses significant downside in the batting average department despite earning Pacific Coast League MVP honors at El Paso last season. In the late rounds of fantasy drafts, of course, reward outweighs risk when it comes to mashers of this potential caliber.

In two full seasons of professional baseball, Renfroe has two 20-homer seasons. After blasting 14 in the tough Double-A Texas League, Renfroe earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A El Paso, where he hit six home runs and posted a .333/.358/.633 line in 21 games. Renfroe’s raw power is his best tool, and it could get him to the majors early in 2016. The question will be if Renfroe can make enough contact to let his power sing. He has struck out 338 times in 1,421 professional plate appearances, a 23.8 percent strikeout rate. That has kept his minor league batting average down to .270 and will put an even lower ceiling on his major league batting average if he can’t improve. Renfroe hit just .250 in parts of two seasons at Double-A, a sign of the improvement he has to make before becoming a major leaguer.

Renfroe's 2014 campaign was split nearly evenly between High-A Lake Elsinore and Double-A San Antonio, but his numbers post promotion featured a .660 OPS after he punished Cal League pitching at a .935 clip. One particularly encouraging sign is that Renfroe showed improved plate discipline following the promotion, and it may not be long before he's ready to contribute in San Diego. Although he finished the season as RotoWire's 27th ranked prospect, Renfroe seems to get overlooked by some owners due to his future home park in San Diego. As a right-handed bat with pop to all fields, the cavernous nature of Petco Park won't be as damaging to his production as it is for left-handed hitters. Renfroe and Rymer Liriano appear to be the long-term future at the corner-outfield spots for the Padres, but the additions of Matt Kemp and Justin Upton in the offseason have clouded things a bit.

After leading Mississippi State to its first championship round at last year's College World Series, Renfroe immediately reported to short-season Eugene for a productive 25-game stay, before the Padres moved him to Low-A Fort Wayne to conclude the season. His batting line (.212/.268/.379) at the latter location left something to be desired, but in a small sample size, he still put up two home runs, five doubles, seven RBI, and six runs in 66 at-bats. Following spring training, the minor league ride of the 2013 first-round pick will likely start off in Fort Wayne.