2026 Stats
W-L
0-0
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.00
K
0
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2026 Fantasy Outlook
Smith vs. Chase Burns isn't a debate anymore, although it was less than two years ago when they were each selected top five in the 2024 First-Year Player Draft. Smith is a 6-foot-3 lefty with a couple dominant pitches (fastball, slider) and worrisome control (17.6 percent walk rate at Double-A). He missed six weeks in the first half of 2025 with elbow soreness but logged a total of 89.2 innings including the Arizona Fall League. Smith lowered his walk rate to 10.5 percent in the AFL, and if he could just carry that same fringe-average control into 2026, he could still have a bright future as a mid-rotation starter or shutdown reliever. He has shown consistently that he has monster strikeout stuff (33.9 K% at Double-A, 36.8 K% in AFL), even without a reliable third pitch. The White Sox will give Smith every opportunity to succeed in the majors, given their significant investment in him. If he's throwing enough strikes this summer, he'll get the call. Read Past Outlooks
Set for Triple-A debut
Smith will begin the 2026 season with Triple-A Charlotte.
Analysis
Smith had a strong showing this spring, striking out eight batters with one walk in 3.2 innings across three appearances. The quality of Smith's stuff is not in question, he just needs to throw enough strikes to start. Last year, the 6-foot-3 southpaw had a 3.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 17.6 percent walk rate in 20 starts at Double-A. If he can come anywhere close to the 5.9 percent walk rate he logged this spring, Smith could be in the big-league rotation this summer.
Smith had a strong showing this spring, striking out eight batters with one walk in 3.2 innings across three appearances. The quality of Smith's stuff is not in question, he just needs to throw enough strikes to start. Last year, the 6-foot-3 southpaw had a 3.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 17.6 percent walk rate in 20 starts at Double-A. If he can come anywhere close to the 5.9 percent walk rate he logged this spring, Smith could be in the big-league rotation this summer.
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Minor League Game Log
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Minor League Left/Right Pitching Splits (AAA)
Since 2024
-100%
BAA vs RHP
2026
-100%
BAA vs RHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2024vs Left | .333 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Since 2024vs Right | .000 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026vs Left | .333 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 2026vs Right | .000 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025vs Left | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025vs Right | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024vs Left | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024vs Right | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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2025 Fantasy Outlook
Smith struck out 48.6 percent of the batters he faced as a junior for Arkansas en route to the White Sox selecting him fifth overall in 2024. Smith entered his junior year with questionable control after walking 13.5 percent of batters as a sophomore and 13.3 percent of batters as a freshman. The 6-foot-3, 225-pound southpaw cut his walk rate to 10.3 percent as a junior, which is still higher than we'd like to see from a premium college pitching prospect. Smith's stuff is so good that many evaluators are willing to look past his questionable command projection. His fastball has been up to 100 mph and sits in the mid-90s, while his mid-80s sweeper is at least a plus pitch and plays up even more due to Smith's deceptive crossfire delivery. He had a 17-strikeout performance against Oregon State last year that required just 78 pitches and qualifies as one of the best outings from any college starter in recent memory. Smith had Tommy John surgery as a sophomore in high school, so if he ends up needing a second such procedure, it could come earlier in his career than it does for most pitchers who get a second TJS. It was a mixed bag in his pro debut. He gave up three earned runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out seven over 7.2 frames in three starts at High-A. Three hit batsmen and a 66.7 percent groundball rate are a couple other notable stats from that tiny sample.
More Fantasy News
Moved to minor-league camp
The White Sox reassigned Smith to minor-league camp Monday.
Analysis
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Returning to rotation at Double-A
Smith (elbow) will rejoin the rotation at Double-A Birmingham on Saturday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Slowed by elbow soreness
White Sox general manager Chris Getz said Friday that Smith has been sidelined recently due to left elbow soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Having start skipped
Smith was pulled early from his last outing with Double-A Birmingham and will have his next start skipped due to fluctuating velocity and signs of fatigue, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Sent to minor-league camp
The White Sox reassigned Smith to minor-league camp Thursday.
Analysis
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