David Peralta

Peralta had a fine, if uneventful, first half during his initial season as a Dodger, posting a .757 OPS with seven homers and 32 RBI across 229 plate appearances. However, his offensive production cratered after the All-Star break, as he registered a paltry .578 OPS without a single homer over his final 59 games. The dropoff can be at least partially attributed to a left elbow injury that required flexor tendon surgery following the campaign -- though Peralta's 44.2 percent hard-hit rate last season was considerably above league-average, the injury likely explains why his barrel rate and max exit velocity dipped below his career norms. The surgery also complicates Peralta's outlook for next season, as it's not certain that he'll be ready to play when Opening Day 2024 rolls around. Even if he does recover in time for the start of the campaign, the 36-year-old may be best suited for a reserve role at this point in his career.

For several seasons, Peralta was unfairly pigeonholed as a platoon batter, even though the lefty swinger handled southpaw pitching sufficiently to be a regular. However, last season, his numbers facing same side pitching plummeted, as he slashed just .154/.247/.215 without the platoon edge. That said, a .267/.329/.449 line facing righthanders is enough to find a job as a reserve outfielder, or perhaps reverting to his usual role of facing most righties. Peralta's primary issue was a career-high 23.3% strikeout rate. There was a time Peralta was the ideal outfielder to draft late as a safe play, perhaps hedging a high-upside hitter. Even with the weakened state of the current outfield inventory, it's hard to envision Peralta being fantasy-relevant in a mixed league with 15 or fewer teams.

Peralta played in a career-high 150 games, though he collected the second most plate appearances as he was platooned more than previous seasons. Peralta's solid plate skills have persisted as he enters his mid-30s, but he's showing signs of declining power. Peralta's homers have always been capped with a low flyball rate but last season's 26% was a career nadir. His exit velocity on balls in the air is also trending downward. However, Peralta's expected homers indicate his total of eight long balls was deprived of between two and four more, so a return to double digits is plausible. His defense remains around average, and it appears he'll again be the regular left fielder. Drafting Peralta is always a conundrum between a sexy upside play and a stable, but boring late-round compiler. This season, the decision will be a few rounds later, but the thought process is the same.

Peralta turned in a solid year at the dish, slashing .300/.339/.433 with five homers, 34 RBI and a stolen base across 54 games. It was also promising to see Peralta remain healthy throughout the shortened season after appearing in 99 contests in 2019. The left fielder isn't likely to mash 30 homers as he did during the 2018 campaign, but he hits for average and his OPS typically hovers around the .800 mark. His average exit velocity has remained relatively stable over the course of his career, sitting at 89.2 MPH in 2020 to go with a 36.3 hard-hit percentage. He's also shown improvement against left-handed pitching, hitting .261 against southpaws in 2020. Heading into his age-33 season, expect more of the same from Peralta, in that he'll continue to serve as a steady bat in the heart of Arizona's lineup who's highly capable of solid offensive production.

Coming off a 2018 season in which Peralta crushed right-handers, regression was expected as he would be hard-pressed to maintain that level of production. While Peralta's numbers did fall back, it was more than just regression. He battled shoulder soreness all season, visiting the IL three time with inflammation of his right AC joint. In early September, Peralta underwent season-ending surgery to remove loose bodies. Exhibit A that the lingering injury affected Peralta's production: his extra-base hit rate. In 2018, 9.8% of his hits were XBH compared to 10.4% last year. The difference is two years ago, half his XBH left the yard but only 27% cleared the fences in 2019. Shoulder woes hindered Peralta's ability to drive the ball. He's supposed to be ready for the spring, so we're back to where we were heading into last season -- a solid, steady performer, likely to occasionally sit against southpaws.

Who says pitchers can’t hit? The former minor-league pitcher had a resurgent power season at the dish around all the talk of the humidor sucking the life out of the offense in Arizona. The 30 homers were easily a career best, but Peralta’s overall offensive production in 2018 looked a lot like 2015 except he had more playing time this time around. The other side of that was his HR/FB ratio nearly doubling from 2017, with more of his doubles and triples of the past becoming souvenirs in 2018. Peralta’s splits have not wavered throughout his career in that he does an inordinate amount of his damage against righties while lefties have little trouble with him. Last year was no exception as Peralta was 50% better than the league average against righties while he was 14% below it against lefties. There is some regression coming in 2019 for Peralta, but this is still a very solid offensive producer.

Players will often take big steps forward in their third season at the big-league level. Peralta did not do that, but he did take steps back toward the player he was in 2015 before injuries marred his 2016 season. He gets on base at a solid rate but isn't given the green light on the base paths due to the fact he has a below-average stolen base conversion rate. The other issue with him is despite his ability to hit to all fields and hit lefties just enough to stay on the field, his power upside is limited by his inability to consistently loft the baseball (27.7 career flyball percentage). Chase Field's new humidor only makes his power outlook more bleak. The league is focused on launch angle and Peralta has a 2.0 groundball-to-flyball ratio in his last two full seasons. His offensive profile is a dime a dozen unless he retools his swing to get more loft on his batted balls in 2018.

Following a breakout 2015 season, 2016 was pretty much a lost cause for Peralta. The 29-year-old outfielder made three trips to the DL and only appeared in 48 games as he dealt with wrist and back injuries. He ended up getting shut down for good in August and finished with a .728 OPS, a far cry from the .893 OPS he posted in 2015. The injuries and natural regression are the top reasons for his decline on a per-plate-appearance basis. Peralta also struggles mightily against lefties (65 career wRC+) and the Diamondbacks have not yet moved him to a strict platoon, so that will suppress his batting average slightly until he is given a platoon partner. Keep an eye on his offseason recovery from August wrist surgery. If everything goes smoothly, Peralta could be a solid rebound candidate heading into 2017. His cost on draft day will no doubt dip from a season ago, and if he can approach the pace of his 2015 numbers (17 home runs and 78 RBI in 462 at-bats), Peralta will end up being a useful fantasy asset.

Peralta had a breakout 2015 season. The Venezuelan outfielder hit .312 (eighth best in the National League), slugged 17 home runs and drove in 78. He also led the National League with 10 triples. Peralta received 169 more plate appearances than he did in 2014, as he established himself as Arizona’s regular left fielder. He was neutralized somewhat by left-handed pitching (.250 batting average, versus .325 against righties), so Arizona will probably look to give him the occasional day off in 2016 when a tough lefty is on the hill. Lacking a lengthy track record, there is some concern that the unheralded Peralta, who was playing independent baseball just four years ago, will regress in 2016. However, he would still be a very useful fantasy outfielder even if he only does 90 percent of what he did in 2015. There will be those who are pessimistic about Peralta’s breakout, so his price on draft day should be very reasonable.

Originally signed out as a pitcher out of Venezuela by the Cardinals in 2004, Peralta never made it above rookie ball in the St. Louis organization, showing a live arm but battling shoulder issues and ultimately getting released in 2009. Following a return to his home country, Peralta resurfaced in North America as an outfielder in independent ball in 2011. The Diamondbacks gave him a look in 2013, signing him to a minor league deal and assigning him to High-A Visalia where he impressed with a .346/.370/.534 line over 51 games. A strong showing at Double-A Mobile to begin 2014 paired with a slew of injuries in the Arizona outfield opened the door for Peralta's first taste of the big leagues, and he became a regular from June 1 on. He could reprise a similar role in 2015, perhaps playing on the larger side of a platoon after hitting .312/.342/.506 against right-handed pitching in his big league debut. There may still be projection left in Peralta's bat given his limited experience as a professional hitter, but he will need to show a more discerning eye at the plate to take the next step after walking in just 4.6% of his plate appearances with the big club last season.