Carlos Hernandez

Typically, a 97 mph fastball would be an encouraging sign, but while Hernandez has velocity, he's yet to do much with it. Hitters tagged his primary pitch for a .366 batting average and .581 slugging percentage in 2022, leading to an ugly 7.39 ERA and 1.84 WHIP across 56 innings. Hernandez started only seven of his 27 appearances last season, posting a 9.10 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in 29.2 innings in the rotation. His time as a reliever was rather unconvincing as well, though he allowed multiple runs in just three of his last 18 appearances. If he can make his pitches more evasive and trim down an ugly 11.7 percent walk rate, there's some upside here as a starter or a high-leverage reliever. It won't do fantasy managers much good if he ends up in a dreaded swingman role or in the minors to begin 2023, though it's a possibility if he doesn't adjust.

Hernandez began the season as a reliever then transitioned to the Royals rotation after the break. He throws four pitches, led by a 97-mph fastball. While it's curious his K% was only 20.7%, Hernandez's swinging strike mark portended a rate a couple ticks higher. That said, unless Hernandez improves his 11.5% BB%, he'll need more than a few additional punch outs to manage his ratios. To that end, his 3.68 ERA was pegged as at least a run lucky by its estimators. He benefited from a fortunate .267 BABIP and 7.3% HR/FB mark along with a 74.7% LOB mark, three points above league average. Hernandez has a live arm worth a speculative investment with a strong chance to win a spot in Kansas City's rotation. Just don't expect last season's ERA, though fewer walks puts a repeat in play.

Despite not having pitched above Low-A prior to last season, the Royals brought Hernandez to their alternate training site and eventually gave him three big-league starts in September. The 23-year-old predictably struggled, but his numbers could have been a lot worse, all things considered. Hernandez has the raw stuff to justify that jump in competition, averaging 96.2 mph with his power sinker last year and having touched triple digits with his four-seamer in the minors. He also features a curveball and changeup that have both flashed plus on occasion. Hernandez has the big, sturdy frame to handle a starting role, but he's had trouble staying healthy, slowing his development, and his career high in innings in any season is only 79.1 The Royals have enough pitching depth that they don't need to throw Hernandez back into the fire right away, but he's put himself in the team's future rotation plans.