Carl Edwards

Edwards faces an uncertain future. We're talking about a pitcher who has yet to turn 30 years old and has struck out one-third of the hitters he has faced throughout his career. Overall, he's posted a 19.2 K-BB% while holding hitters to a .154 average. Yet, he has pitched all of 21.2 innings over the past two seasons and is a free agent at press time as he refused his outright assignment to Triple-A after the season. Walks have been an issue for the righty, but the excessive strikeout totals have helped offset that and the career 1.10 WHIP backs that up. His 2020 season was ended with a right forearm strain in early August, but to date, there has not been a need for surgery. He is all fastball and curveball, and 2018 was the only season the league hit over .200 off the heater. If he could ever find consistent command, he gets interesting in a hurry.

Edwards endured an awful 2019 campaign, stumbling to an 8.47 ERA in just 17 big-league innings after recording ERAs below 3.00 in each of the two prior years. The trouble started right away. He worked on a new delivery during spring training which was promptly ruled illegal. He clearly struggled to adjust on the fly, getting demoted after allowing six runs while recording just five outs over his first four appearances of the season. He looked good for a stretch in the middle of the year, posting a 2.63 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP over 13.2 innings before being dealt to San Diego at the deadline. He made a pair of disastrous appearances for the Padres before being shut down with a shoulder strain, his third trip to the injured list of the season after previously battling back and hand issues. It's possible Edwards' year was merely a blip and he returns to high-leverage form this season, but the risks are high.

Edwards hasn't posted a swinging-strike rate lower than 14.4% in the past three years, and he's improved his first-strike percentage in each of the past two, capping at 60.4% in 2018. Even so, his K-BB% has swiftly dropped in each of the past two years as he's topped 5.1 BB/9 in each. Talk about effectively wild. Edwards missed over a month of action with shoulder inflammation. After returning July 6, he walked 6.7 per nine in 27 innings to close out the season -- perhaps he was still affected physically -- and he quickly fell behind Pedro Strop for save chances with Brandon Morrow sidelined for nearly all of the second half. A forearm issue kept Edwards off the Cubs' postseason roster, so watch his availability for spring training. A healthy Edwards' whiffs could play in many deep fantasy leagues, especially NL-only.

Edwards was heavily used in his first full season as a member of the Cubs' bullpen, making a team-high 73 appearances while working as a key piece of the bridge to closer Wade Davis. He was effective against hitters on both sides of the plate despite a 14.5 percent walk rate (5.2 BB/9), as he parlayed his ability to miss a lot of bats (12.8 K/9) and to induce weak contact (24.0 percent hard-hit rate) to excellent results. Edwards has been very effective while featuring a two-pitch arsenal since joining the big club for good in 2016, pairing a mid-90s fastball with a devastating curveball. He appears likely to remain in a setup role with Brandon Morrow signing with the Cubs in the offseason, but Edwards should still offer value in deeper formats as a high-leverage reliever with plenty of strikeouts and good ratios.

The second year of Edwards' tenure in the bullpen was a success as he pushed his strikeout rate to a career-high 37.7 percent while issuing walks at his lowest rate (10.1 percentage) since his 2013 stint at High-A. Armed with a high-90s fastball and steady curveball, Edwards has the arsenal necessary to become a shut-down option at the back of the bullpen. Not surprisingly, his elevated strikeout rate was supported by a 17.8 percent swinging-strike rate -- the sixth-highest mark among relievers with 30 or more innings pitched -- and his 2.87 FIP was nearly a full run below his ERA. Even if he's not positioned to handle save situations regularly for the Cubs with Wade Davis in town, Edwards may emerge to have value in deeper formats where setup men are utilized as he's earning the trust of manager Joe Maddon while showing the ability to handle hitters from both side of the plate (LHH posted a .191 wOBA against him, RHH posted a .210 mark).

A 49th-round draft pick by the Rangers in 2011, Edwards rose through the ranks of the Cubs' system after he was acquired in 2013 to become arguably the organization's top pitching prospect. A shoulder strain cost him significant development time in 2014, and unfortunately he was converted to a reliever last year, with mixed results. In 55.1 innings in the minors in 2015, he struck out 75 and allowed just 26 hits — including only one home run. Unfortunately, he also walked 41, leading to a 1.21 WHIP, which is a bit high for a pitcher with a minuscule .139 BAA. The Cubs did give him a late-season run, and would probably like to see more of him this year, but until he gets the walks down he'll struggle against MLB hitters. Still, this is a special skill set, so the skinny right-hander could find himself closing someday.

Edwards, the Cubs' top pitching prospect, appears to have the 6-foot-3, 170-pound frame that he's credited with. He's very skinny, and most of that frame comes from Edwards' long legs. If he were graded purely off of stuff and production to this point in his career, Edwards would likely be much higher on prospect lists. Walks have been an occasional issue for Edwards, as he's issued 73 free passes in 182 innings, but he's offset that with 220 strikeouts and just two home runs allowed as a professional. It's also worth noting that Edwards has been excellent against Top 20 prospects, carrying a 26.1% K% and allowing a .188 average against them over the past two seasons. Durability is the primary concern with Edwards, especially after a right shoulder strain cost him nearly four months to begin the 2014 season. He'll likely return to Double-A to start 2015, with the hope of pushing his way to the big leagues before season's end, but a strict innings cap seems likely.

A 49th-round pick in 2011, Edwards has more than exceeded expectations in the minors, and is probably the best piece (not Mike Olt) acquired in the Matt Garza trade. He's been unhittable in the minors, even when he was promoted to High-A Daytona after the deal. His strikeout rate has been above 11.0 K/9 at every stop so far (with respectable walk rates to boot). The 6-foot-2 right-hander might only need one more year in the minors before he's starting games at Wrigley Field. He looks like a gem.