Antonio Senzatela

Senzatela has solidified himself as a solid starter for the Rockies the past two seasons, and he had a 4.42 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 105:32 K:BB across 156.2 innings (28 starts) during 2021. The 27-year-old hits the mid-90s with his fastball but relies on soft contact with a 4.8 percent walk rate and 15.9 percent strikeout rate. Hs 3.60 FIP shows some room for improvement, and he also had an elite 0.69 HR/9. He had reverse home/road splits last year with a 3.97 ERA at Coors Field compared to a 5.05 ERA on the road. Senzatela's low strikeout totals and team context limit his overall ceiling, but he should at least be a decent streaming option, especially in deeper leagues.

Senzatela has the advantage of being a groundball pitcher at Coors Field, but he has several factors working against him. He spent the entirety of the abbreviated 2020 season with the major-league club and posted a career-best 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 73.1 innings, but his 4.81 xFIP suggests that his results may not be sustainable over a larger sample. The 25-year-old had the worst K% (13.5%) of any qualified starter in 2020, according to FanGraphs. He also had the third-worst K-BB% last year after having the worst mark in that category during the 2019 season. Senzatela's average fastball velocity ticked up slightly to 94.4 mph, and his 1.74 GB/FB rate ranked 11th among qualified starters. However, he failed to dominate hitters once again during the shortened season, and his consistently low strikeout rates suggest that he remains a risky fantasy option despite his slightly improved ERA and WHIP.

The positives for Senzatela: he is a groundball pitcher in Coors Field. The negatives: everything else. He had the worst K-BB% of all pitchers last season (min. 100 IP) at 3.3%, as he struck out a mere 13% of the hitters around a 10% walk rate and a .309 opponents' batting average. That is how a pitcher produces a 6.71 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The demotion to Triple-A last year did not fix anything, and the next logical step for him is to move to the bullpen. He has lost a little off his fastball, and did not have a single pitch with positive run value last year. He can soak up some innings, but does not give Colorado a good chance to win. Perhaps a change in his role will bring his fastball back a bit, which is needed given he throws it two out of every three pitches. Until something changes in his role, he needs to stay on the FAAB pile in all formats.

Senzatela began the season working out of the Rockies' bullpen. In early May, he was demoted to Triple-A Albuquerque after posting a bloated 6.23 ERA in 10 appearances spanning 17.1 innings. Senzatela righted the ship on the farm, posting a 2.15 ERA over eight starts. He was recalled in early July and inserted into the Colorado rotation. Senzatela's stint as a starter was interrupted by a pair of DL visits, first with a blister, then due to shoulder inflammation. In his five starts during that span, Senzatela recorded a mediocre 4.81 ERA with a pedestrian 28 whiffs in 39.1 stanzas. The 23-year-old righty then went on a run, posting a 2.94 ERA over his final six starts, punching out a slightly more respectable (but still weak) 27 in 33.2 innings. With his strong finish, Senzatela will likely be in the mix to break camp at the back end of the Rockies' rotation. However, he lacks the requisite arsenal to defeat Coors Fields for an extended period.

Senzatela earned a rotation spot out of camp and fared well in his first six starts (2.84 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), but he endured a nine-run blowup on June 22 and spent the rest of the year bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. Working primarily fastball/slider, with occasional curveballs (3.3 percent) and changeups (3.6 percent) mixed in, Senzatela struck batters out at an 18.1 percent clip. He limited the long balls on the road thanks to a 50.1 percent groundball rate (0.65 HR/9), but as is the case with most pitchers at Coors Field, Senzatela struggled with homers at home (1.45 HR/9, 5.15 ERA). The right-hander's walk rate increased to 9.6 percent in the second half and he allowed a .327 wOBA to right-handed batters for the season. Youth is on his side, but right now Senzatela is a low-strikeout, two-pitch pitcher without a defined role, who has to pitch half of his games in the best hitter's park in baseball.

Senzatela shot up the Rockies' prospect rankings after putting up numbers worthy of the Organizational Pitcher of the Year award with High-A Modesto in 2015. As one would expect, expectations were pretty high for the right-hander heading into the 2016 campaign, but things didn't go as planned. He spent a month in the beginning of the season on the disabled list due to shoulder inflammation, then it returned a month after that and kept him out for the remainder of the year. Senzatela's final line was phenomenal, though, as he finished with a 1.82 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 0.3 HR/9 in seven starts with Double-A Hartford. Missing most of 2016 will likely slow the 21-year-old's path to the majors, but thanks to an arsenal that includes a mid-to-upper-90s fastball and a developing swing-and-miss slider, Senzatela could find himself with the major league club in 2018. He has No. 4 starter upside, but could be a high-leverage reliever if that doesn't work out.

Senzatela may still fit best at the back of a rotation long term, but his 2015 numbers should keep him on prospect radars for now. His command was already pretty special heading into 2015, but the spike in K-rate, up to 23 percent from 14.8% in 2014, suggests development of his secondary offerings. Double-A will prove to be a major test for the 6-foot-1 righty in 2016, but he is starting to look like a No. 4 starter with the upside to be a No. 3 if everything clicks. The Rockies understandably protected him from the Rule 5 draft by adding him to the 40-man roster during the offseason, and he could be knocking on the door of the big leagues sometime in 2017.